The Conservative party is a “fractured mess,” according to one caucus member who volunteered the opinion to a CTV reporter Wednesday.
uncertain
who → accord → reporter
I remain unconvinced that the prime minister plans to establish a political dynasty.
asserted
minister → remain → dynasty
He has repeatedly refused to confirm that he plans to lead the Liberal party into the next election.
asserted
he → refuse → election
He is ambitious to get big things done.
asserted
things → get → ?
He knows he has to be in a position to enact his plans, which requires having a majority government.
asserted
which → know → government
As I noted on Monday, the government is planning to introduce legislation to rein in labour disputes this fall.
asserted
government → note → disputes
The consultative process began shortly after the Liberals acquired, by hook and by crook, their majority.
asserted
Liberals → begin → majority
But Carney seems supremely uninterested in Parliament and likely views an election campaign as a distraction.
The same could not be said for the political people around him.
uncertain
same → seem → him
The most recent polling aggregated by 338 Canada estimates Liberal support at 46 per cent, compared to 33 per cent for the Conservatives.
asserted
polling → aggregate → Conservatives
The seat projection on those numbers suggests the Liberals would have a 99 per cent chance at a majority and could win around 228 seats, compared to 78 for the Conservatives.
uncertain
Liberals → suggest → Conservatives
That projection would see Poilievre’s party lose 60 MPs.
asserted
party → see → MPs
For caucus members contemplating the thought of him leading them into another campaign, the chance of an MP surviving is around 56 per cent — similar to that of a frontline infantry soldier at the Battle of the Somme.
asserted
MP → contemplate → Somme
On CTV, Regan Watts, a former adviser to Conservative finance minister Jim Flaherty, said we are seeing the final scene in this Shakespearean tragedy.
asserted
we → say → tragedy
To extend that metaphor, defeat in the coming Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations byelection, as safe a Conservative seat as it gets in Ontario, would be like Birnam Wood arriving in Dunsinane — namely, the end of the play.
asserted
Wood → extend → play
Larry Brock, the sitting MP will step down this Friday, and the prime minister must call a byelection within the next six months.
asserted
minister → sit → months
Poilievre has to turn things around by then.
asserted
Poilievre → have → things
Yet there are few signs that the Conservative leader is making inroads with voters.
asserted
leader → be → voters
Poilievre is a politician so well versed in the art of denial he appears incapable of saying yes.
asserted
he → appear → denial
His agenda is so inflexible, he is like a tombstone salesman trying to flog a memorial already engraved with the name McDonald.
asserted
he → try → name
He came out against Carney’s investment event on Tuesday, saying that “the speeches, summits and symbolic signing ceremonies” would not pay the grocery bills of Canadians.
asserted
speeches → come → Canadians
He pointed to six quarters marked by a decline in business investment and said the world would like to invest in Canada’s resources were it not for high federal taxes and red tape.
asserted
it → point → taxes
The social media post landed just hours before Carney unveiled nearly $500 billion in new investment commitments and a tax write-off that will cut the marginal effective tax rate on new business investment to the lowest level of any major economy in the world.
asserted
that → land → world
Last month, he posted that Carney had recorded the worst first-year growth of any prime minister on record on the same day that new GDP figures showed annualized 3.3 per cent growth.
asserted
figures → post → growth
All the signs are that the investment summit was a huge success, at least according to the feedback offered by giant asset-management firms such as Blackstone Inc.
uncertain
summit → accord → firms
Its president, Jonathan Gray, indicated that major investors are taking another look at Canada.
asserted
investors → indicate → Canada
Speaking on a panel in Toronto, he said this country has been a “sleeping giant” that is being unleashed by changes to taxation and permitting processes.
asserted
that → speak → processes
“The potential growth rates here are much higher than people would expect,” he said.
asserted
he → expect → ?
If true, that suggests economic growth that will indeed help pay the grocery bills of Canadians.
uncertain
that → suggest → Canadians
Poilievre has also come out strongly against Carney’s plan to secure closer ties with the European Union.
asserted
Poilievre → come → Union
He said that such ambitions are “out of touch” with Canadians, even though the polling suggests that four out of five voters support closer integration.
uncertain
voters → say → integration
Poilievre is onto something when he said Canada should not become the 28th EU state.
asserted
Canada → say → something
But it’s not clear that anyone is proposing it should be.
asserted
it → ’ → ?
The union may not be quite as united once right-wing parties gain more power in Paris and Berlin.
uncertain
parties → unite → Paris
We already have a free trade deal with Europe that Carney should insist the 10 remaining holdout states sign.
asserted
states → have → that
But I think it is more about leveraging a better deal with the Trump White House; a symbolic shift more aimed at supporting democracy and the ancien regime than hard-wiring the Canadian economy into the EU’s architecture.
asserted
it → think → architecture
The prime minister’s advisers might be inclined to test Poilievre’s hypothesis and call an election to see if Canadians do endorse the government’s moves in Europe.
uncertain
Canadians → incline → Europe
But if they do plan to provoke an election, they’d best be careful.
asserted
they → plan → election
As noted last February when rumours of an opportunistic election were doing the rounds, voters are not motivated to give a politician something just because he or she wants it.
asserted
he → note → it
Lester B. Pearson was 20 points ahead in the polls in 1965 when he called an election with no clear purpose.
asserted
he → call → purpose
He ended up leading a minority government for three years.
asserted
He → end → years
…and 3 more, not listed.
The Aporia
