As Carney's popularity soars, Conservatives weigh what to do about their own leader
Sources say there is no strong appetite to oust Pierre Poilievre
asserted
Sources → soar → Poilievre
A number of Conservative MPs have soured on Pierre Poilievre as leader, but despite this growing angst, his position is relatively secure because there is no strong appetite to oust him and choose someone new right now, according to party and caucus sources who spoke to CBC News.
uncertain
who → sour → News
Last year, Poilievre was on the cusp of leading his party to the largest Conservative government in a generation only to fall short when the Liberals replaced an unpopular incumbent with a leader offering a new vision.
asserted
Liberals → lead → vision
He has struggled to recover ever since, facing accusations from some critics that he's yesterday's man, and poorly placed to deal with the issue of our time: an increasingly hostile U.S. government determined to wreck Canada economically.
asserted
he → struggle → Canada
Poilievre earned plaudits for a series of pro-Canada interviews on U.S. television last week, but he hasn't said if he supports the government's retaliatory tariffs on American products.
asserted
he → earn → products
He says he wants to wait for an "analysis" of the expected economic costs before taking a position.
asserted
he → say → position
His lines about this fight have largely focused on trying to cajole the government to bring Parliament back sooner than planned and reveal a failed trade deal that negotiators say is protected by confidentiality clauses.
asserted
negotiators → focus → clauses
Sources speaking to CBC News on the sidelines of the party's caucus retreat in Penticton, B.C., describe caucus morale as low because the U.S. dispute dominates the news cycle, putting their leader and the team at a disadvantage.
asserted
dispute → speak → disadvantage
One MP said Canadians simply "don't want to hear from us right now," and their relevance is in question.
asserted
relevance → say → question
Poilievre has made a career out of fiercely opposing Liberal policies he says have ruined this country.
asserted
he → make → country
That sort of rhetoric doesn't sell as well as it used to given the current patriotic climate, this MP said.
asserted
MP → sell → climate
CBC News has agreed not to name the sources so they can speak freely about internal dynamics.
asserted
they → agree → dynamics
But at least one MP, Jamil Jivani, who has said Canadians have thrown "an anti-America hissy fit" and that the government is overreacting to the trade war, publicly suggested he wants his leader to take a harder line.
uncertain
leader → say → line
As Poilievre tours U.S., Conservative MP bemoans lack of 'alternative to the Liberals'
Conservatives seek relevance, unity in B.C. gathering ahead of Parliament's return
asserted
Conservatives → tour → return
During Poilievre's U.S. media tour, which was largely deferential to Carney, Jivani, a close friend of Vice-President JD Vance, said: "You have people who should be offering an alternative to the Liberals instead going out there to appease people in positions of power.
asserted
who → say → power
In this context, the party's poll numbers have fallen further.
asserted
numbers → fall → context
The recent performance in federal byelections — losing one seat and considerable support in two others — has only increased the sense of doom among some Conservatives.
asserted
performance → lose → Conservatives
"I think you have to be quite honest, this is not the position that we want to be in at this juncture — there’s no question about that," Conservative deputy leader Melissa Lantsman told reporters after meeting with her caucus mates in the B.C. interior.
asserted
Lantsman → think → interior
Lantsman said that given the underperformance, the party will make some "changes" to the Conservative playbook this fall.
asserted
party → say → playbook
What's unlikely to change is the leader.
asserted
's → change → ?
While some MPs say behind closed doors that they are decidedly done with Poilievre, most don't want to take the next step and trigger a Reform Act ousting, like the one parliamentarians used to remove the last leader, Erin O'Toole, sources said.
asserted
sources → say → leader
Such a move could split the party, as some of the more stridently populist members might revolt against what could be perceived as an elite-driven coup, said one MP.
uncertain
MP → split → coup
Conservative MP Michael Barrett said the party base strongly supported Poilievre at his leadership review in January — Poilievre won a commanding 88 per cent of the vote — so the caucus will stick with him.
asserted
caucus → say → him
When asked if Poilievre is the best person to lead the party right now, Barrett deferred to the grassroots.
asserted
Barrett → ask → grassroots
"The Conservative membership made a very strong decision this year for Mr. Poilievre to lead our party.
asserted
Poilievre → make → party
And that's the direction that we've taken," he said in an interview.
asserted
he → take → interview
One senior Conservative staffer said replacing Poilievre now would just needlessly "burn through" another leader given the perception that the Liberals would likely win if there's another election sometime soon.
asserted
Liberals → say → perception
This staffer posited that it's better to let Poilievre lead the party into another election, potentially lose and then resign to trigger a new leadership process.
asserted
Poilievre → posit → process
That would be less divisive than trying to remove a leader who has a strong and vocal online following, especially one who sailed through a recent leadership review, the staffer said.
asserted
staffer → try → review
Another ex-campaign staffer close to Poilievre said even if a Reform Act ouster prompted the leadership selection process, Poilievre could always run again and win — given few people have expressed serious interest in the job.
uncertain
people → say → job
While he came up short, Poilievre did lead his party to a respectable showing in the last campaign, taking 41 per cent of the vote and 144 seats, a figure that has since been whittled down by floor-crossings and defections.
asserted
that → come → crossings
Poilievre could reassure skeptical members that while things aren't looking good now, they can change on a dime in politics, this ex-campaign staffer said.
uncertain
staffer → reassure → politics
Plus, given the divisions in caucus over how to handle the U.S., as well as other longstanding divides on social issues, Poilievre is best placed to hold this disparate group together, the staffer said.
asserted
staffer → give → group
Chad Rogers, a longtime Conservative and a partner at the public affairs firm Crestview Strategy, said all is not lost for Poilievre.
asserted
all → say → Poilievre
Rogers said he is old enough to remember when some pundits claimed former prime minister Paul Martin would win a "super majority" in 2004, leaving the unpopular Stephen Harper on the Opposition benches for years.
asserted
Martin → say → years
That never panned out — Martin limped to a minority, and Harper eventually won and governed for nearly a decade.
asserted
Harper → pan → decade
Carney's aura could also wear off as it did for that Liberal leader some 20 years ago, Rogers said.
uncertain
Rogers → wear → leader
Poilievre is struggling to punch through now, but that might not always be the case, he said.
uncertain
he → struggle → ?
He said Poilievre's plan to go all-in on affordability concerns during this fall sitting of Parliament could bear fruit, given that voters consistently tell pollsters it's a major issue for them.
uncertain
it → say → them
"I don't know that I would want to be an incumbent premier or prime minister anywhere in Canada with the inflation numbers, the debt numbers.
asserted
I → know → numbers
…and 4 more, not listed.
The Aporia
