Nearly half of those surveyed by state pollster FOM say a sense of alarm is the prevailing mood among the people around them.
asserted
sense → survey → them
According to data by independent pollster ExtremeScan, 60% of Russians believe that the war against Ukraine has had negative consequences for their day-to-day lives.
uncertain
war → accord → lives
"Anxiety and war fatigue are driven by increasing uncertainty," Margarita Zavadskaya, a sociologist and senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in Helsinki, told DW.
asserted
Zavadskaya → drive → DW
She says this year has seen a shift in public opinion.
asserted
year → say → opinion
Rising prices, internet crackdowns, fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and rumors of another mobilization drive are making it harder for Russians to plan for the future.
asserted
Russians → rise → future
Some are even leaving the country, afraid they could be drafted after the elections.
uncertain
they → leave → elections
Sociologist and the founder of ExtremeScan Elena Koneva said people were starting to ask the question: "How much does this war cost me and my family?
asserted
war → say → me
And am I ready to pay this price?
asserted
I → pay → price
"
That could pose a problem for the Kremlin.
uncertain
That → pose → Kremlin
From September 18 to 20, Russians are voting for a new parliament (the State Duma) for the first time since 2022.
asserted
Russians → vote → 2022
It's the first parliamentary election to take place in Russia during the Ukraine war.
asserted
It → take → war
And although there are unlikely to be any surprises in the official results, the Kremlin will be closely monitoring turnout.
asserted
Kremlin → be → turnout
"The Kremlin is confident it can fabricate whatever figures it needs.
asserted
it → fabricate → figures
The question is how high of a price it will have to pay," said Zavadskaya.
asserted
Zavadskaya → have → price
Although elections in authoritarian systems like that of Russian President Vladimir Putin have little to do with democratic change, they still serve an important purpose.
asserted
they → have → purpose
They are a reality check on whether the population remains loyal.
asserted
population → remain → ?
"They are crucial for him because they demonstrate that the majority supports the main party, the party of war, and that he has legitimacy for further escalation and the continuation of this war," Russian opposition politician in exile Ilya Yashin told DW.
asserted
Yashin → demonstrate → DW
In the fifth year of the war in Ukraine, there is little sign the Kremlin is willing to end the conflict.
asserted
Kremlin → be → conflict
United Russia, a party de facto led by Putin, is campaigning on a platform that lists victory in the war among its priorities.
asserted
that → lead → priorities
Its candidate list is headed by people presented as veterans of the war against Ukraine.
asserted
list → head → Ukraine
But many Russians appear to want the opposite.
asserted
Russians → appear → opposite
"The silent majority just wants the war to end," opposition politician Yulia Galyamina, who still lives in Russia, said in a recent interview with online media-outlet Bereg.
asserted
who → want → Bereg
Most of these people still support Putin, but they are becoming increasingly anti-war, she said.
asserted
she → support → Putin
That mood is also reflected in polling.
asserted
mood → reflect → polling
Six in 10 Russians favor peace negotiations with Ukraine, according to independent pollster Levada Center.
uncertain
Russians → favor → Center
Recent Kremlin hints at a new round of peace talks in October may be a tactic to calm the electorate, Zavadskaya said.
uncertain
Zavadskaya → calm → electorate
Support for Yabloko has been rising
One party has sought to capitalize on this anti-war sentiment: Yabloko.
asserted
party → rise → sentiment
The liberal opposition party is the only registered political force opposing the war in Ukraine.
asserted
party → register → Ukraine
Although its rating was below 5% in July, the party has seen a surge in popularity since then.
asserted
party → see → popularity
Many people, especially younger Russians, are joining Yabloko and volunteering.
asserted
people → join → Yabloko
According to the independent pollster ExtremeScan, 18% of Russians would have voted for Yabloko.
uncertain
% → accord → Yabloko
But they will not be able to: In a recent court decision, Yabloko was barred from running in the parliamentary elections.
asserted
Yabloko → bar → elections
"This support for Yabloko is, in fact, a demonstration of people's attitude toward the war," Koneva told DW.
asserted
Koneva → tell → DW
What will anti-war voters do?
asserted
voters → do → What
Now, with Yabloko out of the race, are there still ways for Russians to express that attitude?
asserted
Russians → express → attitude
Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Alexei Navalny, and opposition politician in exile Maxim Katz are urging supporters to back any party except United Russia in an effort to reduce the ruling party's result in the election.
asserted
Navalnaya → urge → election
Yabloko has taken a different approach, encouraging voters to spoil their ballots.
asserted
Yabloko → take → ballots
Yashin says neither choice matters.
asserted
choice → say → ?
What matters, he says, is showing up at polling stations at noon on Sept. 20.
asserted
he → matter → Sept.
"These queues will be a visible expression of public discontent," he said.
asserted
he → say → discontent
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
