Four German Air Force Eurofighter jets stand ready at Latvia's Lielvarde military air base, just 60 kilometers from Riga.
asserted
jets → stand → Riga
The aircraft are part of NATO's efforts to strengthen Baltic air defenses on the alliance's eastern flank ahead.
asserted
aircraft → strengthen → flank
Germany sent the jets amid repeated drone incursions, which have put Latvia on alert ahead of the country's elections on October 3.
asserted
which → send → October
Security fears ahead of elections
Security has become one of the defining issues of this campaign — defense promises appearing on the programs of most of the leading parties in Latvia.
asserted
Security → become → Latvia
In recent months, several drones have entered Baltic airspace.
asserted
drones → enter → airspace
The latest incident occurred on September 15 in Lithuania, when a drone believed to have crossed from Belarus was shot down by an NATO fighter jet.
asserted
drone → occur → jet
On top of that there are hybrid threats, including migrant flows that Latvia and its neighbors say are being encouraged by Russia's ally Belarus to pressure the EU and test border security.
asserted
Latvia → be → security
Intelligence officials of several European countries, including Latvia and the Czech Republic have warned that Russia could seek to test NATO in the upcoming "months, not years."
uncertain
Russia → include → months
"There are concerns in the West and also here in the Baltic states that Russia might be trying some further actions here in the Baltics," says Maris Andzans, director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies in Riga.
uncertain
Andzans → be → Riga
"If you want to test NATO, there is no better place than the Baltic states."
asserted
you → want → states
Near-unanimous agreement on defense
Latvia elects its 100-seat parliament, Saeima, through proportional representation, meaning coalition governments are the norm.
asserted
governments → elect → representation
Polls currently put the centrist United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs ahead, followed by the populist alliance Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance and Latvia First led by Ainars Slesers.
asserted
Polls → put → Slesers
The center-left Progressives and the conservative National Alliance are also expected to enter parliament.
asserted
Progressives → expect → parliament
Most of these Latvian parties view Russia as a security challenge.
asserted
Most → view → challenge
"The biggest threat is our neighbors, Russia and Belarus," says Agnese Kupca of the United List.
asserted
Kupca → say → List
"Our partners in the EU should understand: it is not only our border with Russia, but also EU and NATO border with aggressor."
asserted
it → understand → aggressor
Latvia is one of the few NATO members that have committed by law to spending 5% of GDP on defense, and analysts say the country's foreign policy orientation is unlikely to change regardless of which coalition emerges after the vote as there is nearly unanimous consensus on the importance of NATO.
asserted
coalition → commit → NATO
Which is backed by their voters: according to Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES) Security Radar 2025 Latvians generally have a positive view of NATO.
uncertain
Latvians → back → NATO
But while security policy enjoys broad agreement, the economic consequences of Latvia distancing itself from Russia remain contentious.
asserted
Latvia → enjoy → Russia
Since 2022, Latvia has reduced imports from Russia and Belarus by more than 90% and introduced some of the toughest restrictions in the EU on goods from the two countries.
asserted
Latvia → reduce → countries
Latvia's economy has adapted, but businesses with strong pre-war links to Russia were among the hardest hit.
asserted
businesses → adapt → hit
"This closeness to the theater of war has strongly influenced the investment climate," says political analyst Filips Rajevskis.
asserted
Rajevskis → influence → climate
"So the big question is how to increase the investments and grow the economy."
Many Latvians reject any economic cooperation with Russia on security grounds.
asserted
Latvians → increase → grounds
Sixty percent said they want Latvia to reduce dependence on Russia, according to FES Security Radar 2025.
uncertain
Latvia → say → Radar
We can't watch what's happening and still be friends with Russia," one passerby in Riga told DW.
asserted
passerby → watch → DW
Not breaking up with Russia completely?
At the same time 20% of Latvians, according to FES, favor closer ties with Russia.
uncertain
% → break → Russia
Julija Stepanenko, leader of Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance, has repeatedly argued against completely severing economic ties with Russia and Belarus.
asserted
Stepanenko → argue → Russia
Earlier this year, it emerged that Stepanenko has received gifts worth roughly €400,000 ($470,000) from her father, a Russia-based businessman whose company manufactures construction materials, including anti-tank fortifications known as "dragon's teeth."
asserted
company → emerge → teeth
But despite that, her party remains in second place in the polls.
asserted
party → remain → polls
When DW met Lyubov Shvetsova, one of Sovereign Power/Union of New Latvians party candidates at a campaign stand just outside the center of Riga, she rejected accusations that the party is pro-Russian.
asserted
party → meet → accusations
"Our approach is pragmatism oriented toward the interests of Latvian business," she said.
asserted
she → orient → business
During an interview on Latvian public television earlier in September, Slesers argued that transit of goods with Russia should continue as long as it is not prohibited by EU sanctions.
asserted
it → argue → sanctions
His party has focused heavily on economic issues, arguing that Latvia should prioritize growth and investment over what it sees as excessive self-imposed restrictions.
asserted
it → focus → restrictions
And this approach has found support: more than 9% are ready to vote for Latvia First, which is in third place in the polls.
asserted
which → find → polls
However, discussions about fully restoring trade with Russia are premature, party member Edmunds Zivtins told DW.
asserted
Zivtins → restore → DW
"As long as the war in Ukraine is ongoing, we cannot talk about it," he said.
asserted
he → talk → it
Language and identity dividing Latvia
Analysts say such parties may attract some voters who feel alienated by Latvia's increasingly restrictive approach toward Russia.
uncertain
who → divide → Russia
The appeal is not necessarily driven by support for the Kremlin.
asserted
appeal → drive → Kremlin
Rather, it often comes from parts of the country's Russian-speaking minority who feel overlooked by mainstream parties and uneasy about policies such as the phase-out of Russian-language school education and the reduced role of Russian in public life.
asserted
who → come → life
About one-third of Latvia's population speaks Russian at home.
asserted
third → speak → home
…and 3 more, not listed.
The Aporia
