It has been a week since Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels stormed down the Red Sea coast, extending their reach to a key maritime choke point, and threatened Saudi Arabia's oil exports.
asserted
rebels → back → exports
The Houthis' biggest land grab in years reignited Yemen's 12-year civil war and has already pushed up global fuel prices.
It also gave Iran another potential source of leverage as the United States has started to loosen Tehran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula.
asserted
States → reignite → Peninsula
The Houthis are firing at Saudi oil facilities and tankers.
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Houthis → fire → facilities
Their attack on Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline, blamed on Iran-backed militias in Iraq, added to an unfolding nightmare for the kingdom and rattled world markets.
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attack → blame → markets
The rebel blitz has forced some 125,000 Yemenis to flee their homes.
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blitz → force → homes
An ongoing civil war in the country has killed over 150,000 people and at times pushed the country to the brink of famine.
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war → kill → famine
And now the rebels appear to be eyeing Yemen's oil-rich east.
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rebels → appear → east
So far, the only thing standing in their way is Yemen's Saudi-backed government and an array of forces that have fought each other as recently as January.
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that → stand → January
Saudi Arabia's most important ally, the US, appears to be sitting this one out.
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ally → appear → one
The Houthis captured the important Red Sea port city of Mokha before taking several islands near the narrow Bab el-Mandeb strait through which some 12 per cent of world trade passes in peacetime.
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cent → capture → peacetime
They are also just 32 kilometres from Djibouti, a small African nation hosting US and other military bases.
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They → host → bases
The Houthis first swept down from their northern heartland in 2014, capturing the capital, Sanaa, and much of northern Yemen.
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Houthis → sweep → Yemen
Saudi Arabia intervened the following year and fighting raged until a 2022 ceasefire.
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fighting → intervene → ceasefire
Previous Houthi offensives have failed to capture the city, which also serves as a military hub for Saudi-backed forces.
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which → fail → forces
The Houthis also threaten the western city of Taiz, a front line for much of the conflict.
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Houthis → threaten → conflict
The Houthis want Saudi Arabia to lift a long-running blockade on the territory they control.
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they → want → territory
"It is Saudi Arabia that closed the Bab el-Mandeb strait to shipping traffic to and from Yemen and imposed an unjust blockade on the country," Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthis' political bureau, told The Associated Press.
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Bukhaiti → close → Press
The Saudis and their allies have long struggled to contain or deter the Houthis and may be tempted to seek a diplomatic solution to halt the attacks.
uncertain
Saudis → struggle → attacks
That might ultimately require US concessions to Iran, the only country with leverage over the Houthis.
uncertain
That → require → Houthis
The US, which bombed the Houthis under the Biden and Trump administrations, has shown no interest in getting involved this time around, and the Houthis appear keen to keep it that way.
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Houthis → bomb → it
They say they are only attacking Saudi shipping.
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they → say → shipping
The capturing of Mokha and the islands in the Bab el-Mandeb strait allows the Houthis to "harass shipping more easily", said April Longley Alley from the Washington Institute.
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Alley → allow → Institute
"It also establishes them as the power broker in this critical waterway.
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It → establish → waterway
The Houthis perceive Saudi Arabia as "more vulnerable" due to the Iran war, she said.
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she → perceive → war
Traffic recovers in the Red Sea — for now
Windward, a shipping firm, reported a dip in traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait from 35 daily transits before the Houthi advance to 25 after, but traffic has already recovered and climbed to 45 transits on Sunday.
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traffic → recover → Sunday
The Houthis could still expand their target bank beyond Saudi ships and tankers.
uncertain
Houthis → expand → ships
During their self-styled blockade of Israel at the height of the war in Gaza, the Houthis attacked ships in the Red Sea with no known connection to that conflict.
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Houthis → style → conflict
"At the moment their focus is on Saudi-linked shipping," said Valentin d'Hauthuille, a Middle East analyst at ACLED, a conflict monitor.
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d'Hauthuille → link → ACLED
But they might "extend the criteria according to which vessels are assessed to be Saudi-linked to increase pressure on both Saudi and the global economy," he said.
uncertain
he → extend → Saudi
Regional mediators have sprung into action, but a diplomatic agreement appears unlikely without some kind of breakthrough in the wider Iran war.
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agreement → spring → war
Iran wants the US to lift a blockade and sanctions that have devastated its economy, while the US seeks the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a deal to roll back Tehran's nuclear program.
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US → want → program
Neither side has shown any sign of budging since a preliminary agreement quickly crumbled over the summer.
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agreement → show → summer
Last weekend, Oman hosted a meeting between US and Houthi representatives, a Houthi official and another individual familiar with the talks told The Associated Press this week.
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official → host → Press
The US says it has been in "constant contact" with the Saudis, a close ally and the recipient of billions of dollars in American military assistance.
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it → say → assistance
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently visited Egypt, which has served as a regional mediator.
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which → visit → mediator
A government official in Turkey, another potential mediator, said this week that it was in talks with Iran and the United Arab Emirates to try and lower tensions.
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it → say → tensions
But officials from Turkey and Pakistan say they have not received a Saudi request for support.
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they → say → support
Humanitarian crisis worsening
The latest fighting has killed eight civilians and wounded another 32, according to the UN humanitarian office, which says an estimated 125,000 people have fled their homes.
uncertain
people → worsen → homes
The health ministry of the Saudi-backed government says the Houthis have killed around 150 civilians since September 3.
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Houthis → back → September
Saudi Arabia said Thursday that debris from an intercepted Houthi drone killed one person and wounded two others in the kingdom.
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debris → say → kingdom
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
