What’s the ballot box issue for the Toronto mayoral election?
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issue → ’ → election
It’s not yet clear.
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It → ’ → ?
With only six weeks to go, there is no defining matter that has seized the minds of the electorate and driven the debate between candidates.
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that → go → candidates
But there are examples of previous Toronto mayoral elections that have been strongly defined by a single issue.
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that → be → issue
When David Miller was elected mayor in 2003, a defining issue was the island airport and Miller’s opposition to a bridge to it.
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issue → elect → it
I can still vividly recall standing on the subway platform staring at fear-mongering campaign ads showing 747s coming in for landing on the island.
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I → recall → island
Miller also did a good job of casting City Hall as corrupt and in need of cleaning up, which he did with the popular visual of holding a broom over his head at campaign rallies.
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he → do → rallies
The island airport was an odd referendum question in that it didn’t impact many voters’ daily lives and certainly not their pocketbooks, but vibes and nostalgia are powerful political tools and Miller used them to his advantage.
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Miller → impact → advantage
Speaking of vibes, when Rob Ford won the 2010 mayoralty it wasn’t on any specific platform points but on his well-known refrain to stop the gravy train.
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it → speak → train
This message resonated with many people who felt forgotten by and shut out of City Hall for too long.
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who → resonate → long
From that message, the enduring political tribe of Ford Nation was born.
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tribe → endure → Nation
This year’s campaign doesn’t yet have a comparable focus and one may not even arise.
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one → have → focus
So far, the leading candidates are all thin on big ideas and headline-grabbing policies.
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candidates → lead → ideas
While both Mayor Olivia Chow and Coun. Brad Bradford would bristle at being told this, right now there really isn’t that much separating the two of them.
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Chow → bristle → them
Long-time political observers will of course know there’s a big difference.
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observers → know → course
But regular voters wouldn’t — not if we’re basing it on the candidates’ positioning and debate remarks to date.
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we → base → date
Chow’s campaign slogan is to build “a more affordable, safe and caring city.”
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slogan → build → city
One of Bradford’s slogans is “to build a safer, more affordable, and thriving city” — in addition to his headline refrain of “a city we can be proud of.”
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we → build → city
None of this tells the voter much.
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None → tell → much
As I discussed in my past column, the left-wing Chow’s re-election strategy appears to be to move to the centre and lean into the incumbent advantage.
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strategy → discuss → advantage
Bradford was somewhat left-leaning a few years ago but has since made a pivot to the centre-right.
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Bradford → lean → right
That said, he’s still campaigning closer to the centre and is endorsed by many Liberal politicians.
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he → say → politicians
There’s a simple campaign logic to this approach for both of these candidates: The bulk of the votes are in the centre and that seems to be what the public wants.
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public → ’ → what
It’s hard to fault the candidates for it but the downside is it then becomes hard for the voter to differentiate between them.
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voter → ’ → them
The advantage may then go to Chow, as she’s the more widely known candidate, being the incumbent.
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she → go → Chow
Former federal cabinet minister Chris Alexander, a late entry to the race, likewise doesn’t have a clear rallying cry and so we’re left with three people on the debate stage all making relatively sanitized, ill-defined statements.
Congestion and public safety are the two topics that you hear people of all walks of life and political views complain about the most in Toronto.
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people → have → Toronto
They’re legitimate problems that have worsened in the past few years and they are problems that the City can have a direct hand in fixing.
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City → ’re → hand
They’re also likely to generate different positions between candidates, which then creates genuine choice among voters.
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which → ’re → voters
These are the matters that I would relentlessly seize on.
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I → seize → that
There’s still plenty of time for this to happen.
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this → ’ → time
The dynamics of the race will change when lawn signs start going up at the beginning of October and candidates release their platforms shortly after.
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candidates → change → platforms
Anthony Furey is a former journalist and past Toronto mayoral candidate who now works in corporate consulting.
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who → work → consulting
The Aporia
