Who’s Doug Ford backing in the race to be Toronto’s mayor?
asserted
Ford → back → race
Well, it’s complicated, it turns out.
asserted
it → ’ → ?
Last week, the premier issued what a lot of people took as a quasi-endorsement of Olivia Chow, telling reporters he and Chow have a “phenomenal relationship.”
asserted
he → issue → relationship
He continued, “We’re going to continue supporting the mayor.
asserted
We → continue → mayor
She’s doing an incredible job.
asserted
She → do → job
A couple of days later, after much consternation, Ford’s office tried to call the whole thing off, releasing a statement saying, “We would like to clarify that Premier Ford did not endorse Olivia Chow and will not endorse any candidate.
asserted
Ford → try → candidate
In the span of a few days, the premier said people should read between the lines and then said there was nothing there to read at all.
asserted
people → say → lines
The did-he-or-didn’t-he drama kind of misses the point, though.
asserted
drama → miss → point
Because here’s the truth about Ford’s role in this mayoral election: none of the candidates really need his endorsement.
asserted
none → ’ → endorsement
What they need is his money.
asserted
need → need → What
A subsample from a poll conducted by Liaison Strategies on Aug. 23 and 24 found just 19 per cent of Toronto residents approve of the job Ford is doing.
asserted
Ford → conduct → job
The province-wide poll of 1,500 voters has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
asserted
poll → have → 20
The margin of error for a subsample like this would be higher, but not high enough to make this a remotely good number for the premier.
asserted
this → make → premier
The raccoon who knocked over my green bin last week might have a higher approval rating.
uncertain
who → knock → rating
Heck, the guys who always try to cut the line for the ramp to the Gardiner at Jarvis Street might poll better.
uncertain
who → try → Street
You could see the political downside of a Ford endorsement in action last week, as Brad Bradford, Chow’s leading opponent according to polls, took the quasi-endorsement as an opportunity to slam the mayor for not fighting hard enough against overreach from Queen’s Park.
uncertain
Bradford → see → Park
But the premier’s popularity aside, whoever wins the mayoral race in Ontario will have no choice but to work with Ford.
asserted
wins → win → Ford
And a big part of working with him will be getting him to write some big cheques.
asserted
him → work → cheques
City hall needs them.
asserted
hall → need → them
Because while city hall’s fiscal situation has certainly improved from where it was in 2023 when Chow was elected, the city’s not out of the woods yet.
asserted
city → improve → woods
Toronto’s 2026 budget, passed in February, included an ominous warning about the coming years, noting “significant financial challenges.”
asserted
budget → pass → challenges
“Without federal and provincial funding support, there will be profound, material and sustained impacts on city services and capital spending,” the document says.
asserted
document → say → services
The numbers suggest that the operating budgets for both 2027 and 2028 will need about $481 million in provincial and federal support.
asserted
budgets → suggest → support
If they don’t get that nearly half-billion dollars from Queen’s Park and Ottawa, all candidates will be challenged to deliver on promises to keep property tax increases low, as both Chow, Bradford and mayoral candidate Chris Alexander have pledged.
asserted
Chow → get → increases
Raising $481 million would require an additional annual residential property tax increase of nearly 10 per cent.
asserted
Raising → raise → cent
And when the winner of the election sits down to crunch the numbers, there’s a good chance the financial pain could be worse.
uncertain
pain → sit → numbers
The city’s most recent budget variance report showed Toronto tracking toward a nearly $100-million deficit this year, largely driven by underwhelming transit fare revenue, an increase in labour costs driven by provincial policy changes related to firefighter sick leave, and a big spike in fuel costs.
asserted
Toronto → show → costs
Since municipalities are not allowed to run an operating deficit, the new mayor could find themselves needing to find even more cash to cover the shortfall.
uncertain
themselves → allow → shortfall
The root of the problem is that the much-hyped “new deal” between Ford and Chow came with an asterisk.
asserted
deal → hype → asterisk
While Ford’s move to take control of the Gardiner and the Don Valley Parkway offered permanent relief to the city’s capital budget, freeing up money to build and repair infrastructure, the support offered on the operating side — to pay for ongoing services — was capped at just three years, starting in 2024.
asserted
support → take → 2024
Time is running out.
asserted
Time → run → ?
Job One for the person in the mayor’s office after Oct. 26 will be securing an extension of the deal to at least put more time on the clock.
asserted
Job → secure → clock
But either way, there’s no avoiding that the city will need to ask Ford to open the province’s wallet again too.
asserted
city → ’ → wallet
That’s the fiscal reality.
asserted
That → ’ → ?
When it comes to the kind of support these candidates need from the premier, it’s not about what’s between the lines.
asserted
what → come → lines
It’s about the city’s bottom line.
asserted
It → ’ → line
The Aporia
