Last week, Canada’s dollar-for-dollar tariffs on $27.6 billion of U.S. goods took effect — 15, 25 and 50 per cent on steel, aluminum, dairy, appliances, farm equipment and electronics, plus $7.5 billion in relief.
asserted
tariffs → take → relief
These measures are necessary as a signal, but matching Washington tariff-for-tariff is the weakest part of any trade fight.
asserted
matching → match → fight
As a China specialist who has watched Beijing face Trump twice, the lesson for Ottawa is blunt: retaliate to change behaviour, not to keep score.
asserted
lesson → watch → score
When Washington imposed 34 per cent “reciprocal” tariffs, Beijing matched, then bundled in export licences on seven medium and heavy rare earths, entity-list restrictions and WTO suits.
asserted
Beijing → impose → earths
When the U.S. escalated to 84 and then 125 per cent, China matched once and then refused further increases as “meaningless,” letting rare-earth licensing do the work.
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licensing → escalate → work
The Geneva truce rolled back most incremental tariffs while leaving Beijing’s licensing and consultation leverage in place.
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truce → roll → place
It’s not size, but leverage
The lesson is not “use rare earths” — Canada cannot.
asserted
Canada → ’ → earths
A smaller economy cannot win a tariff war of attrition, but it can impose costs by targeting bottlenecks the other side cannot quickly replace.
asserted
side → win → bottlenecks
It is to pair visible tariffs with a bottleneck we actually control, and to stop mirroring once the numbers stop hurting the other side more than us.
asserted
numbers → pair → us
China’s response to Canada’s own EV tariffs is the better template — and it shows de-escalation can work.
asserted
escalation → show → tariffs
Ottawa imposed a 100 per cent duty on Chinese EVs and 25 per cent on Chinese steel and aluminum in October 2024, largely following Washington.
asserted
Ottawa → impose → Washington
Beijing responded with targeted, legally wrapped measures on canola, pork and seafood — conditionally reversible from the start.
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Beijing → respond → start
After Prime Minister Mark Carney’s January 2026 Beijing visit, both sides stepped back: Canada abolished the 100 per cent EV tariff and China also scaled back its tariffs on Canadian agricultural products and seafood and paused WTO panel fights while talks continue.
asserted
talks → step → fights
Canola oil, pork and some seafood remain taxed, so this is not total surrender by either side — it is a managed off-ramp that restored most Prairie access without either capital losing face.
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capital → tax → face
One reason Beijing moves faster is structural: a centralized system can launch a probe, set tariffs and issue export licences under one authority.
asserted
system → move → authority
Canada cannot and should not copy that; in a federal democracy the equivalent of speed is consent-based co-ordination.
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equivalent → copy → speed
Ottawa should institutionalize a whole-of-federation trade-retaliation mechanism — first ministers and relevant ministers, with relevant sectoral representatives and labour at the table.
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Ottawa → institutionalize → table
Preauthorize standby instruments (export permitting, relief, quota administration) so that, when Washington acts, Canada responds within days instead of after intergovernmental brinkmanship.
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Canada → preauthorize → brinkmanship
Saskatchewan and Manitoba can align on canola and potash, Alberta on energy egress, Ontario and Quebec on autos and manufacturing; a shared playbook is what makes retaliation credible and reversible.
asserted
retaliation → align → autos
Size alone does not determine who blinks first; leverage does.
asserted
leverage → determine → ?
For the U.S. fight, Canada should borrow the method, not Beijing’s targets.
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Canada → borrow → method
Keep the current counter-tariffs, but legislate an export-licensing framework for potash, uranium, nickel and selected critical minerals: not a ban, not an National Energy Program-style oil weapon, but discretion that creates uncertainty for U.S. buyers where substitution takes years.
asserted
substitution → keep → years
Pair this strategy with accelerated LNG and Pacific crude egress so the signal is “we may sell to others,” not “we will cut you off.”
uncertain
we → pair → you
Energy, potash and uranium were carved out of Washington’s Section 338 list; that tells us where American dependence already lies.
asserted
dependence → carve → us
As the China case shows, retaliation should name the conduct that triggers relief — drop the 2027 auto-to-50 per cent threat, stop using Section 338 on CUSMA-compliant goods and respect the poison-pill and cultural red lines Carney has set.
asserted
Carney → show → lines
Retaliation that merely mirrors a larger economy invites escalation; retaliation that is legal, sector-precise, hard to substitute, federally co-ordinated and tied to a defined exit changes the other side’s calculus.
asserted
that → mirror → calculus
The Aporia
