Republicans insist they are playing offense before November’s midterm elections, but the party’s biggest spenders are increasingly investing into deep-red states that President Donald Trump has never lost.
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Trump → insist → that
The Senate map is the best example of this, where recent expenditures in states such as Kansas and Iowa foretell a potentially tumultuous election for Republicans.
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expenditures → foretell → Republicans
Earlier in the week, Vice President JD Vance was in Kansas with Trump’s super PAC MAGA Inc. to campaign for Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), who first won election in 2020 by more than 11 points.
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who → campaign → points
A public poll published last week of his race this election cycle has Marshall with a 5-point lead over Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton in the state Trump won by more than 16 points in 2024.
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Trump → publish → 2024
“He’s in trouble,” one Kansas Republican provided with anonymity in order to discuss the race candidly told the Washington Examiner.
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Republican → ’ → Examiner
“That’s why Vance [was] here.”
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Vance → ’ → ?
“I still predict he’ll win, but, you know, from the Republican perspective, why are we spending money in the red state of Kansas?” the source added.
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source → predict → Kansas
Vance will then be in Iowa, a state that went to Trump by 13 points in 2024, on Friday with the Republican National Committee to stump for gubernatorial nominee Zach Lahn.
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that → go → Lahn
Lahn is running, on average, 5 points behind Democratic nominee Rob Sand in their race to replace outgoing Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA), who earned her second term in 2022 by 18.5 points.
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who → run → points
Meanwhile, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) has an average 1-point edge over Democratic nominee Josh Turek and will not be in attendance at the vice president’s Council Bluffs rally.
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Hinson → have → rally
“I’m not sure ‘defense’ is the right term.
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defense → ’m → ?
Maybe shoring up support, at least for Kansas,” a second Republican, this one a veteran national party strategist, told the Washington Examiner.
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Republican → shore → Examiner
“Iowa is a little more serious because of the governor’s race having trickle-down effects.”
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race → have → effects
Republicans are also expected to spend hundreds of millions in Texas, where a competitive race brews between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.
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race → expect → Paxton
MAGA Inc., which reported having more than $400 million cash on hand at the end of July, also disclosed last that week it spent at least $10 million to support Paxton, a source confirmed to the Washington Examiner.
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source → report → Examiner
Trump endorsed Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), effectively ending the popular former whip’s career.
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Trump → endorse → career
On the same day as the Texas campaign finance disclosure, MAGA Inc. and its new aligned super PACs No Going Back PAC Inc. and Safety and Affordability PAC reported spending a combined $138 million on ads, mail, and texts to help Republican nominees in about 50 races, spending the most on Senate contests in Michigan, Ohio, and Alaska, a source confirmed to the Washington Examiner.
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source → align → Examiner
In addition to spending from other principal Republican campaign arms, super PAC Senate Leadership Fund is spending $17 million in Alaska, $33 million in Iowa, $42 million in Maine, $71 million in North Carolina, $79 million in Ohio, and $60 million in Texas.
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Fund → spend → Texas
“I personally believe [Texas] will not end up being as close as it is right now — but yeah the spending from SLF, etc., is pretty clear we are playing defense there,” a Republican operative told the Washington Examiner.
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operative → believe → Examiner
“Talarico has too much crazy baggage that will be litigated in ads that I think will be very effective.
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I → have → ads
But when you are spending such massive sums to hold onto TX it obviously takes away from the traditional swing seat races.”
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it → spend → races
Regardless, the National Republican Senatorial Committee projected confidence less than 50 days before the midterm elections, particularly since the Supreme Court repealed coordinated party expenditure restrictions under the Federal Election Campaign Act.
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Court → project → Act
“The fall of coordinated spending limits means the NRSC can discuss spending decisions directly with our candidates and their campaigns,” NRSC communications director Joanna Rodriguez told the Washington Examiner.
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Rodriguez → coordinate → Examiner
“The era of raising the curtain on strategy for press and the Democrats we’re looking to defeat is over.
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we → raise → press
“NRSC’s Sept. 20 spending report is expected to reveal coordinated spending across more battleground states,” a second source continued, with the NRSC already releasing an ad with New Hampshire nominee John Sununu.
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NRSC → expect → Sununu
Another source cited SLF’s spending on offense against Democratic incumbents, including $44 million in Georgia, $51 million in Michigan, and $17 million in New Hampshire.
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source → cite → Hampshire
To that end, Americans for Prosperity spokesman Bill Riggs, whose Koch network-funded employer on Thursday announced seven-figure ad spending in Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio, encouraged Republicans to “lean into the opportunity to go more on offense.”
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employer → fund → offense
“The good news is that the Democratic Socialist platform itself is giving candidates a contrast that wins,” Riggs told the Washington Examiner.
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Riggs → give → Examiner
“Break it down piece by piece — banning fossil fuels, taking over health care, hiking taxes to fund reckless spending — and it energizes base voters and scares the hell out of swing voters.
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it → break → voters
We’re taking that message to the doorstep and in our advertising.
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We → take → advertising
You combine that with a credible alternative and those key voters move toward our candidates.”
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voters → combine → candidates
The Aporia
