The News
Republicans may have to make hard choices this fall as they shape their strategy for keeping the Senate — and some think it might not include North Carolina or Georgia.
uncertain
it → have → Carolina
Just 10 years ago, those two southern states formed the bedrock of Republicans’ Senate majorities.
asserted
states → form → majorities
But as President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings hamper the party’s candidates nationwide and widen the battleground map, some in the GOP want to adjust tactics and consider moving money away from races where its candidates are struggling to gain traction.
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candidates → hamper → traction
“These are always tough decisions, but it’s a zero-sum game.
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it → ’ → ?
It’s important that resources are directed where there’s a high probability of a winning outcome,” one Republican senator told Semafor.
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senator → ’ → Semafor
“North Carolina and Georgia have consistently shown us behind.
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Carolina → show → us
It’s not an easy environment.”
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It → ’ → ?
That senator said picking up seats in Michigan and New Hampshire as well as holding onto Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska are all more fertile ground for holding onto the Senate: “When it all settles we’re going to win those seats, objectively.
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we → say → seats
But I think we’re going to have a hard time in North Carolina and Georgia.”
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we → think → Carolina
Republicans don’t yet agree on their battleground blueprint; some would prefer to keep hammering away at former North Carolina Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff.
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some → agree → Cooper
But less than two months out from Election Day, the party’s internal divide reflects the urgency with which they’re working to hang onto at least one chamber of Congress next year — as the House looks increasingly likely to flip to Democrats.
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House → reflect → Democrats
The National Republican Senatorial Committee and Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, generally set the tone for where the party should invest its money.
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party → align → money
In an interview, Thune acknowledged there’s a fork in the road coming.
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Thune → acknowledge → road
He said it’s too early to give up on North Carolina and Georgia, adding that he’s planning to travel soon to help Rep. Mike Collins against Ossoff.
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he → say → Ossoff
Though some Republicans privately believe they have little chance of victory in either state, Thune said “there’s game left to play” in both states even as he recognized the degree of difficulty.
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he → believe → difficulty
“We’ll have to obviously make decisions when it comes to resources about where we’re going to invest the most, and that’ll be shaped by: it’s all about keeping the majority and protecting the majority.
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it → have → majority
So you know there are certain firewall states we just have to win,” Thune said.
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Thune → know → ?
It’s challenging in both cases.”
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It → ’ → cases
Cooper and Ossoff have maintained leads over their respective GOP opponents.
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Cooper → maintain → opponents
Neither North Carolina nominee Michael Whatley nor Collins are incumbents; both parties often stay in until the end behind sitting senators who face uphill paths.
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who → stay → paths
At the moment, GOP groups are currently still set to spend tens of millions in Georgia and North Carolina this fall, according to AdImpact.
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groups → set → AdImpact
Two red-state incumbents are facing strong challengers: Sens. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, and Jon Husted, R-Ohio.
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incumbents → face → Sullivan
And Democrats are also going after sitting GOP senators in Kansas, Mississippi and South Carolina.
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Democrats → go → Kansas
Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., said Republicans should take a hard look at North Carolina and Georgia when assessing how to keep senators like Sullivan afloat: “Move on? Maybe.
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Republicans → say → Sullivan
Obviously we have limited resources, and we want to put them where we’re likely to win.
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we → have → them
And it would really suck if we lose in Alaska, for example, where we aren’t spending the resources.”
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we → suck → resources
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., who successfully implored Trump’s super PACs to come into Texas to help the NRSC and SLF, said those groups are ruthless if they think candidates can’t win: “They’ll pull it from you in a nanosecond.”
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They → implore → nanosecond
North Carolina and Georgia are “not looking good,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, a two-time NRSC chair.
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Cornyn → look → ?
“Georgia looks like it’s pretty close to done.
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it → look → ?
And North Carolina seems to be close to that.
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Carolina → seem → that
I’m still hopeful that something will change.
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something → ’m → ?
But you know, at some point things get baked in.”
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things → know → point
Senate Leadership Fund has raised and invested hundreds of millions of dollars across the Senate map this cycle.
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Fund → raise → map
Chris Gustafson, a spokesperson for SLF, says that “thanks to Leader Thune and SLF’s historic fundraising, Republicans are able to make investments across the map to retain our Senate majority.”
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Republicans → say → majority
Know More
Both parties routinely shift limited money around in Senate races, a difficult decision because it alienates candidates before Election Day.
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it → know → Day
In 2022, SLF bailed on Arizona candidate Blake Masters.
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SLF → bail → Masters
In 2016, Democrats moved away from their fading candidates in Florida and Ohio.
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Democrats → move → Florida
Money moves say a lot more than public polls about where parties think races are competitive.
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races → say → polls
Even with Ossoff’s durable lead, one national Republican official said spending on behalf of Georgia GOP gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson could help Collins against Ossoff.
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spending → say → Ossoff
Cooper’s lead over Whatley is still in the single digits, this official added, and late-breaking voters could still shift the race toward Republicans.
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voters → add → Republicans
…and 22 more, not listed.
The Aporia
