United States officials met Houthi representatives at the US embassy in the Omani capital, Muscat, over the weekend after the Iran-aligned movement seized thousands of square kilometres of territory in just a few days.
asserted
movement → meet → days
With strategically important islands and large stretches of Yemen’s Red Sea coast now under Houthi control, the group has tightened its grip on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait – a crucial chokepoint for global shipping and energy supplies.
asserted
group → tighten → shipping
Recommended Stories
list of 4 items- list 1 of 4Bomb attack at Pakistan mosque kills at least 16 people, injures 56
- list 2 of 4Ukraine fires drone barrage as Russia launches elections
- list 3 of 4Israel is killing the people who could end its wars
- list 4 of 4‘My children did not attack Iran’: 2bn South Asians suffer from distant war
uncertain
Asians → kill → war
During the talks, the Houthis assured US officials that they had no intention of attacking US shipping in the Red Sea, saying their restrictions would apply only to vessels linked to Saudi Arabia.
asserted
restrictions → assure → Arabia
But that would still leave two of the world’s most important shipping routes facing serious disruption, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz restricted for the past six months.
asserted
traffic → leave → months
Any further disruption could drive global oil and consumer prices even higher, creating another political headache for US President Donald Trump ahead of midterm elections in November.
uncertain
disruption → drive → November
With the Houthis’ history of attacking commercial vessels, their ties to Iran and their deep ideological opposition to the US, some experts question how far their assurances can be trusted.
asserted
assurances → attack → US
But some analysts say Washington may have little choice but to take the group at its word, at least for now.
uncertain
Washington → say → word
US military resources are reportedly depleted and growing domestic opposition to the Iran war have all limited Washington’s ability – and willingness – to open another front in Yemen.
uncertain
opposition → deplete → Yemen
Pressure to intervene
As the Houthis seized territory in southwestern Yemen, the US publication Axios reported that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Donald Trump twice last week, urging him to launch strikes against the group – but the US president refused.
asserted
president → intervene → group
Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of US Central Command, subsequently travelled to Riyadh for urgent coordination talks with the crown prince.
asserted
Cooper → travel → prince
The visit suggested Washington was seeking to intensify support for Saudi Arabia while avoiding direct military involvement.
uncertain
Washington → suggest → involvement
Trump also attempted to reassure Riyadh, describing the crown prince as a “good friend” and promising that “everything will work out very well”.
asserted
everything → attempt → friend
But he offered no specific military commitment and the White House announced no explicit guarantee that the US would defend Saudi energy infrastructure or shipping routes.
asserted
US → offer → infrastructure
Axios also reported that the military chiefs of Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Egypt attended a private gathering convened by the US.
asserted
chiefs → report → US
While the US has avoided intervening, Israel, whose ships and territory have previously been targeted by the Houthis, has reportedly offered to intervene in Yemen on Saudi Arabia’s behalf.
uncertain
ships → avoid → behalf
Simon Mabon, a professor of international relations at Lancaster University, however, said any Israeli involvement would probably be limited.
asserted
involvement → say → University
“With elections coming up [in Israel], there comes a point when there is overreach,” Mabon told Al Jazeera.
asserted
Mabon → come → Jazeera
Experts also say that the Saudis may be wary of being seen to rely on Israeli military support, particularly amid the war on Gaza, because doing so could damage Riyadh’s standing and legitimacy throughout the Arab and Muslim worlds.
uncertain
doing → say → worlds
Washington’s reluctance to act could deepen Saudi concerns about its longstanding security relationship with the US.
uncertain
reluctance → act → US
“This is another instance of the United States failing to fulfil its role as a security guarantor,” Mabon said.
asserted
Mabon → fail → guarantor
“That will start to add up and create serious doubts in Saudi Arabia about whether it can rely on the United States.”
asserted
it → start → States
The kingdom began diversifying its relationships after attacks on its oil infrastructure in 2018 and 2019 exposed the limits of US security guarantees.
asserted
attacks → begin → guarantees
Last September, it signed a mutual defence agreement with Pakistan, stipulating that an attack on either country would be treated as an attack on both.
asserted
attack → sign → both
Riyadh expanded that emerging security arrangement last month by signing the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement with Pakistan and Turkiye, under which an armed attack against any of the three would be regarded as an attack against them all.
asserted
attack → expand → them
Mabon said the latest crisis was unlikely to produce a complete break with Washington, but could accelerate Riyadh’s efforts to build closer ties elsewhere.
uncertain
crisis → say → ties
“We are already seeing a diversification of security portfolios,” he said.
asserted
he → see → portfolios
“The Saudis are starting to believe that they cannot rely on the United States all the time, which is why we saw the agreement with Turkey and Pakistan.”
asserted
we → start → Turkey
Why the US wants to stay out
Washington is already embroiled in an expensive and resource-intensive war with Iran, the Houthis’ principal regional backer.
asserted
Washington → want → Iran
Trump entered that conflict expecting it to end within days.
asserted
it → enter → days
More than six months later, the war remains unresolved, oil prices are higher and the administration has yet to set out a clear route towards ending it.
asserted
administration → remain → it
Opening another front in Yemen would risk repeating that experience at a particularly difficult moment for Trump’s Republican Party.
asserted
Opening → open → Party
A new campaign in Yemen could complicate closely contested House and Senate races, especially after Trump built his presidential campaign around the promise to end US involvement in “forever wars”.
uncertain
Trump → complicate → wars
A Reuters/Ipsos poll published last month found that just 31 percent of Americans supported US military action against Iran, down from 37 percent in March, while 83 percent expected the conflict to continue for an extended period.
asserted
conflict → publish → period
“The elections in November are hugely significant,” Mabon said.
asserted
Mabon → say → November
Opening a new front in what could potentially become another forever war would be deeply unpopular.”
It is questionable whether the US has the military resources required to sustain another operation.
uncertain
US → open → operation
Reports emerged in July that supplies of some critical munitions, particularly long-range missiles and Patriot interceptors, were running low.
asserted
supplies → emerge → munitions
Those concerns coincided with Washington halting attacks on Iran.
asserted
Washington → coincide → Iran
A Pentagon watchdog report published this week found that the first four months of the war cost $33bn, including $22bn in expended munitions.
asserted
months → publish → munitions
It also revealed that dozens of aircraft had been lost or damaged, hundreds of buildings and structures hit and Iranian attacks caused an estimated $184m in damage to US diplomatic facilities.
asserted
attacks → reveal → facilities
…and 17 more, not listed.
The Aporia
