The Aporia · Poll puts Democrat Adam Hamilton ahead in typically red Kansas

A new Emerson College poll shows Kansas Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton leading Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall by 2 points among likely voters. The survey of 750 people has a 3.6% margin of error and indicates growing dissatisfaction with both Marshall and President Trump, as well as strong support for Hamilton from independent voters. This shift is noteworthy in traditionally red Kansas, where Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1932.

Written by AI on 2026-09-19, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

Story summary

A new Emerson College poll shows Kansas Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton leading Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall with a 2-point advantage, an unusual shift in the traditionally red state. The survey polled 750 likely voters and has a 3.6% margin of error. This marks a change from earlier polls which had Marshall ahead by 5 points or more. Hamilton’s strength lies in his appeal to independent voters, who favored him over Marshall 43% to 27%. Libertarian candidate David Graham received 4% support among likely voters, while 8% remained undecided. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, notes this gives Democrats their best chance at winning a Senate seat in Kansas since 1932.

Written for “Kansas Election Polls Hamilton Ahead” on 2026-10-31, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

📰 Kansas Election Polls Hamilton Ahead

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This article reads leans left and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.

Republicans watch once untouchable seats crack as grim batch of polls reveal dark electoral forecast Different event

Daily Mail

⚖️ Leans left Hedges 2 of 20 claims Outlet record 68/100

“Article A focuses on a specific poll showing Adam Hamilton ahead in Kansas, while Article B discusses multiple polls across different states and their impact on Republican candidates.”

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Claire Carter

122 article(s) here · 0 carrying a prediction

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Kansas Democratic Senate Candidate Adam Hamilton pulled ahead of his competitor, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), in a new poll, an unusual jump in a state that heavily favored President Donald Trump in the past three presidential elections. asserted

that → pull → elections

A new poll from Emerson College found Hamilton with a 2-point advantage over Marshall, with Libertarian candidate David Graham splitting the vote. asserted

Graham → find → vote

The survey was conducted among 750 likely voters with a 3.6% margin of error. asserted

survey → conduct → error

Hamilton’s lead marks a shift from other surveys of the race following the primary elections. asserted

lead → mark → elections

A poll conducted at the beginning of the month found Marshall with a 5-point lead over the Democrat. asserted

poll → conduct → Democrat

Even a poll sponsored by the Democratic Party’s campaign arm places Marshall in the lead. asserted

poll → sponsor → lead

The Emerson poll found Hamilton performing particularly well among independent voters, who backed the Democrat 43% to 27% over Marshall. asserted

who → find → Marshall

Graham received 4% among likely voters, while 8% remained undecided. asserted

% → receive → voters

“This poll finds Democrats with their best chance to win their first Senate seat in Kansas since 1932, in part driven by Democrat Hamilton’s appeal to independent voters,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. asserted

Kimball → find → Polling

The results also showed broader dissatisfaction with both Marshall and his close ally, Trump. asserted

results → show → Marshall

Marshall was viewed favorably by 41% of likely voters and unfavorably by 48%. asserted

Marshall → view → %

Trump’s job performance received approval from 40% of respondents, while 53% disapproved. asserted

% → receive → respondents

Former Kansas Republican Gov. Bill Graves recently endorsed Hamilton over Marshall in the race. asserted

Graves → endorse → race

Graves accused the incumbent of having “turned his back on Kansas” during his first term. asserted

Graves → accuse → term

The former governor has previously made cross-party endorsements, including Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS) in her 2018 and 2022 campaigns, both of which she won. asserted

she → make → which

The race has drawn national attention since Hamilton’s primary victory. asserted

race → draw → victory

Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report moved the contest from their previous “safe” or “solid” Republican ratings to “likely Republican,” but they both continue to characterize the race as an uphill climb for Democrats. asserted

they → move → Democrats

Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, while Democrats have won several recent gubernatorial elections in the state. asserted

Democrats → elect → state

Poll puts Democrat Adam Hamilton ahead in typically red Kansas

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