Claims extracted
15
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
0%
0 of 15 hedged
("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
not measured
these signals count newsroom corrections;
Commentary has none to count
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
The streak of excellent polls for Democrats continues.
asserted
streak → continue → Democrats
The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows the generic ballot at D +8, and this week’s YouGov/Economist wave has it at D +12 among likely voters.
asserted
wave → show → voters
As a result, Democrats’ chances of retaking the Senate are up to 59 percent in our Deluxe forecast.
asserted
chances → retake → forecast
That’s the highest they’ve been this cycle.
asserted
they → ’ → ?
We’ll regularly update the charts below as new election polls and other data come in.2
asserted
polls → update → charts
This page is designed to be viewed on the web rather than in our email client or in the Substack app.
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page → design → app
If you’re curious about how the model works, and what’s new for 2026 (quite a lot, actually), we also have a very detailed methodology article.
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we → ’re → article
The Silver Bulletin polling averages are the first step in FLIPR, and they include various adjustments.
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they → include → adjustments
They account for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters, and for house effects.
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polls → account → effects
They weight more reliable polls more heavily.
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They → weight → polls
They also include a “timeline adjustment”, where outdated polls are revised to reflect trends in the generic ballot.
asserted
polls → include → ballot
Speaking of the generic ballot, you can find a version of it with our likely-voter adjustment below; this is the version that FLIPR uses.
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FLIPR → speak → that
We draw most of the election polls used in our model from The New York Times poll database3, but collect generic ballot and congressional approval polls ourselves.
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We → draw → polls
They are typically based on 40,000 simulations and include a small amount of sampling error.
asserted
They → base → error
FLIPR models House, Senate and gubernatorial elections jointly, meaning that we can calculate the probability of things like Republicans holding the Senate but losing the House.
asserted
Republicans → model → House
The Aporia
