If most Albertans don't want to leave Canada, where is the pro-Canada movement?
asserted
movement → want → Canada
With a month to go, separatists have way more money and are dominating the online conversation
Over the last year, a steady drumbeat of polling has found again and again that most Albertans oppose separation — but based on fundraising and online chatter, you might not know that.
uncertain
you → go → that
In a month, Albertans will head to the polls to vote on the future of the province, and the separatists occupy an outsize share of the spotlight, having raised three times the money and dominating the online conversation by as much as eight to one.
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separatists → head → one
The pro-Canada side, meanwhile, remains divided, thanks largely to election finance rules that prevent collaboration, and worries about complacency.
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that → remain → complacency
More than one federalist organizer has said that the time for persuasion is over.
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time → say → persuasion
After an emotional and hotly-contested few months, most Albertans have dug in their heels on a position, federalists say.
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federalists → contest → position
The challenge now? Getting people to actually vote.
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people → get → ?
“I think the federalist side in this referendum campaign has hit a point of real unease,” says Avnish Nanda, the spokesperson for Our Alberta Advantage, which launched a new campaign to get out the vote this week.
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which → think → vote
Called 5x for Canada, it features a series of tongue-in-cheek videos designed to equip people to get their friends to cast a ballot.
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friends → call → ballot
“The separatists are just everywhere,” Nanda said.
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Nanda → say → ?
Polling might cap support for independence at about a quarter of the province, but if a bigger proportion of separatists show up, the math gets dicey, he pointed out.
“Even if they don’t win outright, if the separatists get 30 per cent of the vote, I think Alberta is forever changed.”
Team Canada
Making the case for Canada is a patchwork of groups and individuals, including former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk, who, along with volunteers, has spent over a year driving a maple leaf-emblazoned RV almost 40,000 kilometres around the province.
There’s a team of academics and former politicians working as a “pop-up think-tank” under the name Lead Not Leave, and Conservatives for Canada, the campaign launched by the federal party to target their own supporters.
uncertain
who → cap → supporters
Polling suggests right-leaning voters are more likely to have separatist sympathies.
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voters → suggest → sympathies
In perhaps the strangest case of odd bedfellows, rival ex-premiers Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney have joined forces for a Canadian Chamber of Commerce campaign in support of keeping Alberta in Canada.
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Notley → join → Canada
Kenney in particular has emerged as a vocal anti-separatist, who has argued that, historically, followers of the movement couldn’t “get elected to dog catcher.”
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followers → emerge → movement
Each group has functioned mostly individually.
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group → function → ?
“I see them rowing in the same direction,” Lukaszuk said of the other groups.
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Lukaszuk → see → groups
Rules keep groups separate, leaders say
But unlike the generally cohesive Yes and No campaigns in Quebec, it was never realistic — or allowed — for pro-Canada groups to unite under the same banner, says Jared Wesley, a professor of political science at the University of Alberta and a member of Lead Not Leave.
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Wesley → keep → Leave
During Quebec’s referendum, each side was required to more or less co-operate under a national committee.
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side → require → committee
In comparison, Alberta’s rules prevent collaboration.
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rules → prevent → collaboration
Campaign finance rules say groups — third party advertisers, specifically — can’t work together lest they risk running afoul of spending limits.
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they → say → limits
“Any conversation among federalists that are a part of these various groups always starts off with, ‘To be clear, we’re not co-ordinating, right?’”
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we → start → ordinating
Wesley says with a laugh.
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Wesley → say → laugh
“I mean, to be frank, the law simply does not allow us to compare notes.”
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us → mean → notes
The separatists are all going to vote.
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separatists → go → ?
Every one of them will crawl over broken glass to vote.-
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one → crawl → glass
That means groups can’t share resources, co-ordinate events or vet each other’s public communications, he said.
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he → mean → communications
In some ways, the splintered nature of the movement is an advantage, he argued.
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he → argue → movement
“I think the notion that everyone should be part of one team on either side of the debate is based on an old way of political communications,” he said.
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he → think → communications
The media environment right now is very divided, Wesley said, meaning people get their information from a dizzying array of news organizations, websites and social media posts, often based on their own interests and political leanings.
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people → say → interests
Because the federalist groups are similarly varied, they speak to different parts of the population, he added.
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he → speak → population
Some of them are moderate, some are progressive, some are conservative,” he said.
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he → say → them
“The way that our public sphere is fractured suggests that’s not a bad strategy.”
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that → fracture → ?
Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly said she does not want Alberta to separate, but also put the question about separatism on the ballot and has been criticized by both sides for the role she has played in the campaign so far.
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she → say → campaign
This week the Alberta government launched a $4-million advertising campaign on the referendum questions, which urges viewers to “stand up for a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada,” but doesn’t otherwise argue the federal case.
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which → launch → case
In an emailed statement, Smith's press secretary, Sam Blackett, said the government will use "various channels" to communicate with Albertans about the referendum questions, including online, TV, radio and social media.
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government → email → online
"The Premier also travels across Alberta every summer and will continue speaking directly with Albertans through town halls, public events, media interviews and more," he wrote.
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he → travel → halls
The prime minister has been critical of the referendum — calling it a “dangerous bluff” back in May — and recently met with Forever Canadian campaigners, but hasn’t spearheaded a campaign.
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minister → call → campaign
In July, Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre appointed Alberta MP Dane Lloyd as the party’s point person on the referendum, writing at the time that Lloyd’s task was “not to scold Albertans” but to “hear” them.
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task → appoint → them
But the party’s third-party advertiser, Conservatives for Canada, was only registered on Sept. 4 and has yet to raise any funds.
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advertiser → register → funds
This is the official entity that allows them to raise money and take a position on the referendum under election financing rules.
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them → allow → rules
…and 19 more, not listed.
The Aporia
