There are few who can claim to know Vladimir Putin.
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who → be → Putin
As Russians go to the polls this weekend, those who have experienced the president at close range describe his power, and growing paranoia.
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who → go → power
Tucked deep in a national park between Moscow and Saint Petersburg, hills bursting with birch and pine rise to one side of the town.
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hills → tuck → town
On the other, a vast network of glacial lakes extends as far as the eye can see.
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eye → extend → lakes
Crisp summer days here often begin with mist lingering over the water.
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days → begin → water
In winter, the dense green forest turns white as branches bow under the weight of fresh snow.
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branches → turn → snow
It's easy to see why Vladimir Putin loves this place, although the locals don't really talk about that.
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locals → see → that
Politics is a taboo subject for Russians and in Valdai — home to around 14,000 people, if the country's notoriously unreliable population stats are to be believed — that's absolutely the case.
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that → believe → people
"I have no idea," one woman, who has lived in the area her whole life, says when asked whether she knew the Russian president had a pad nearby.
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president → have → pad
One of the wealthiest and most identifiable people in the world has a lavish "dacha", or holiday home, just across the water.
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One → have → water
Yet no one knew that the man who has towered over Russia's public affairs for decades, and changed the course of Russia's history, could be having a mud therapy treatment a few kilometres away?
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who → know → treatment
(Yes, the president's compound has its own spa complex, but
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compound → have → complex
"You must remember that discretion is one of the main security measures around Putin," says Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert and honorary professor at University College London.
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Galeotti → remember → London
"Take his train, for example."
Putin has a special armoured train, Galeotti says, made to look just like an ordinary one.
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Galeotti → take → one
"If you're in the know, you'll realise the track has been cleared and the unexpected bump on its roof is actually a radio.
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bump → realise → roof
But if you're just a normal person, when you see this thing pass you're not going to say, 'Aha, Putin's on the move'.
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Putin → see → move
"In that context, it's by no means impossible people don't know what's going on [in Valdai].
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what → know → Valdai
For someone who is among the most powerful figures of his generation, there remains a lot of mystique about Vladimir Putin.
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who → remain → Putin
In the information gap, speculation swirls.
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speculation → swirl → gap
Beneath that strongman image sit claims today's Putin is far less impressive: an ailing, isolated philanderer who relies on a team of body doubles to keep up public propaganda appearances.
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who → sit → appearances
Putin doesn't spend as much time as he used to in Valdai, once believed to be his favourite residence among the 20-odd he has access to.
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he → spend → access
Despite aerial defences and protective nets set up around the property, staying there appears to have been deemed more risky than relaxing.
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staying → set → property
American political scientist Jason Smart says it seems that instead Putin has spent most of the past 10 months in a bunker.
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Putin → say → bunker
"I assume this bunker is very, very large — an underground mansion — but it's still a bomb shelter," says Smart, who was kicked out of Russia in 2010 after working with the democratic opposition.
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who → assume → opposition
Putin is not only scared of Ukrainian drones, Smart believes.
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Smart → believe → drones
Smart is referring to Putin's inner sanctum of ultra-wealthy confidants and henchmen whom he keeps onside by lining their pockets with public money.
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he → refer → money
Smart argues these influential "gangsters" could soon turn on their leader — a prediction not everyone agrees with.
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everyone → argue → leader
But as Russians head to the polls this weekend to vote in parliamentary elections that analysts contend will be neither free nor fair, there is evidence to suggest the country's 73-year-old leader is under more pressure than ever.
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leader → head → pressure
Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in its fifth year, has backfired spectacularly.
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invasion → backfire → year
Credible estimates suggest 30,000 men a month are being killed, injured or deemed missing yet Putin is expected to launch a second forced mobilisation of more than 500,000 civilians into the military to continue fighting.
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Putin → suggest → military
Putin denies this and there is no doubt doing so would be wildly unpopular.
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doing → deny → this
But the president reportedly believes if he does not achieve his objectives in Ukraine, he could "be hanged".
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he → believe → Ukraine
In a televised address this week, Putin cast the election as a barometer of support for the war.
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Putin → televise → war
"Your choice and your will will once again demonstrate that millions of people stand behind our soldiers, that we are a united people bound together by shared values, historical memory, and love for our homeland," he declared, having already excluded most anti-war candidates from the ballot.
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he → demonstrate → ballot
European leaders have warned Putin could launch "hybrid attacks" on NATO countries.
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Putin → warn → countries
On Thursday, Polish PM Donald Tusk went further, telling his country's parliament that drone and missile strikes were not out of the question.
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strikes → go → question
Putin has denied it.
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Putin → deny → it
The front lines have been largely frozen for three years, but attacks between Russia and Ukraine elsewhere are escalating.
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attacks → freeze → Russia
And there are indications they are becoming more desperate.
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they → be → ?
Last weekend, Ukraine's railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia claimed the Kremlin had unsuccessfully attempted to blow up a train carrying former British prime minister Boris Johnson, who was travelling to Poland with other high-profile dignitaries after visiting Kyiv.
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who → claim → Kyiv
…and 220 more, not listed.
The Aporia