CALGARY - Stephen Vandervalk half-jokes that there’s a reason more farmers aren’t seen pitching their businesses on “Dragon’s Den” and “Shark Tank.”
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farmers → ’ → Den
“They would laugh you out of the room,” said the fourth-generation southern Alberta wheat grower.
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grower → laugh → room
It’s an industry where investment decisions span generations, not fiscal quarters, and where owners are at the mercy of forces as fickle as weather and as volatile as war.
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owners → ’ → war
Canadian farmers are working to get their crops off their fields against a particularly stormy backdrop this year, as conflict upends global supply chains and the U.S. administration throws a once rock-solid cross-border trading relationship into disarray.
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administration → work → disarray
Weather
Rains came at the exact wrong time for many Prairie farmers.
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Rains → come → farmers
A wet spring delayed seeding in many spots.
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spring → delay → spots
Rainy conditions returned with a vengeance in the last few weeks, smack dab in the middle of the harvest.
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conditions → return → harvest
“It would have been a lot nicer to have that six weeks ago,” said Vandervalk, who is vice-president at the Wheat Growers Association.
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who → have → Association
He said much of the summer was bone-dry.
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much → say → summer
Industry groups report that the harvest of various products is well behind the average timing of recent years.
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harvest → report → years
Depending on how long those crops remain on the fields, they could see a deterioration in quality.
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they → depend → quality
“Farmers are fighting mud trying to get out on the fields,” said Rick White, head of the Canadian Canola Growers Association.
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White → fight → Association
“The days are shorter, the sun is not as long in the sky and temperatures are cool, so when it does rain significantly, it takes a long time for it to dry out.”
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it → rain → time
Vandervalk said his wheat crop hasn’t been great.
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crop → say → ?
Nor has it been the worst he’s seen.
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he → see → ?
“But this also was by far, with no comparison ever in history, the most expensive crop that farmers have put in the ground,” he said.
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he → put → ground
“You get an average crop, you are losing money hand over fist.
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you → get → fist
It’s a pretty scary thought when your average isn’t nearly good enough.”
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average → ’ → ?
The war in the Middle East has disrupted global crude oil shipments, hiking the cost of products derived from that commodity.
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war → disrupt → commodity
Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have further crimped supplies.
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strikes → crimp → supplies
The Canadian average retail price of diesel was more than $2.75 a litre late last week, according to Natural Resources Canada.
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price → accord → Canada
That’s over 80 per cent higher than the price at this time last year, which was around $1.50.
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which → ’ → time
“Higher diesel prices have arrived at the worst possible time, because harvest is one of the most fuel-intensive periods of the year,” said Bruce Burrows, executive director at Grain Growers of Canada.
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Burrows → arrive → Canada
He said he’d like to see the federal government offer a “targeted and temporary” per-litre rebate on fuel to help ease some of the pain.
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government → say → pain
“The reality is you either buy the fuel or you don’t,” said Keith Currie, an Ontario farmer who leads the Canadian Federation of Agriculture.
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who → buy → Agriculture
“And if you don’t buy it, you don’t have a crop.”
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you → buy → crop
The Ukraine-Russia and Mideast conflicts have also disrupted supplies of fertilizer.
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conflicts → disrupt → fertilizer
Vandervalk said prices have become “absolutely astronomical.”
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prices → say → ?
The high fuel price “hurts, but it’s not something that’s devastating,” Vandervalk said, “whereas fertilizer is definitely killer for us.”
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fertilizer → hurt → us
Trade
Farm Credit Canada, a federal Crown corporation that provides financing and advisory services to agriculture businesses, surveys farmers monthly to gauge industry sentiment, said J.P. Gervais, executive vice-president.
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Gervais → provide → sentiment
The “concern level” spiked in the spring of 2025 when U.S. President Donald Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs at a universal 10 per cent rate, he said.
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he → spike → rate
That sentiment dropped and flatlined for well over a year, until it started ticking up again in its most recent poll.
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it → drop → poll
“It’s trending up because the narrative is highly volatile and nobody knows really how that’s going to look going forward,” said Gervais.
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Gervais → trend → ?
Canada’s counter-tariffs included farm machinery parts imported from the United States, but industry groups are optimistic farmers can get some relief through the remission process, whereby tariffs can be refunded or waived in certain circumstances.
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tariffs → include → circumstances
China imposed steep tariffs on canola products and peas last year in retaliation for Canada’s levy on Chinese electric vehicles, and later imposed further canola tariffs linked to an anti-dumping investigation.
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China → impose → investigation
Ottawa announced an agreement with Beijing in March that saw the 100 per cent tariffs on canola meal and peas suspended until year-end.
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tariffs → announce → end
Anti-dumping tariffs on canola seed have been sharply reduced.
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tariffs → reduce → seed
It was a welcome move, but farmers haven’t exhaled completely.
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farmers → exhale → ?
Greg Cherewyk, president of Pulses Canada, said importers might be reluctant to commit to purchases while the fate of those tariffs remains up in the air.
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fate → say → air
“They want absolute certainty that there will not be a 100 per cent duty applied on Jan. 1.
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They → want → Jan.
…and 20 more, not listed.
The Aporia
