In FLIPR’s view, it’s no longer accurate to describe the battle for the U.S. Senate as a “toss-up.”
asserted
it → ’ → up
In our terminology, that designation covers all races where neither party has more than a 60 percent chance of winning.
asserted
party → cover → chance
But Democrats’ Senate chances are now between 63 percent and 69 percent in all three versions of FLIPR, including 65 percent in our headline “Deluxe” version.
asserted
chances → include → version
It’s sometimes nice for forecasters when races are toss-ups; it keeps you from putting your neck out too far.
asserted
it → ’ → neck
Democrats are kicking the equivalent of a 50+ yard field goal.
asserted
Democrats → kick → goal
Kickers make most of those kicks these days, but there are still plenty of ways to shank it.
asserted
Kickers → make → it
But for what it’s worth, FLIPR is in pretty strong alignment with prediction markets, which have Democrats at 61 percent to win the Senate.
asserted
which → ’ → Senate
Conversely, expert ratings imply a much different political environment.
asserted
ratings → imply → environment
The Cook Political Report, for example, counts seven races as “toss-ups,” including states like New Hampshire where models and prediction markets imply that Democrats are heavy favorites.
asserted
Democrats → count → Hampshire
And it’s becoming harder to justify by the day.
asserted
it → become → day
There’s not much longer to go — 44 days until Nov. 3 — and both national polls and race-by-race polls have been extremely strong for Democrats since Labor Day.
asserted
polls → ’ → Day
Democrats’ big lead on the generic ballot is consistent with history
It’s not hard to understand why Democrats have made further gains in polls lately.
asserted
Democrats → ’ → polls
Gas prices have spiked to almost $4.50 per gallon, up 37 cents from a month ago and $1.29 from a year ago.
asserted
prices → spike → gallon
Diesel prices have risen even more and affect more consumers than you might think.
uncertain
you → rise → consumers
Meanwhile, President Trump’s disapproval rating is now 58.9 percent, the highest of his term so far, and his net approval rating of -20.5 is basically tied for his worst.1
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rating → tie → worst.1
Our model includes an internal calculation of what it thinks the national environment “should” be given the president’s approval rating, the results of the previous Congressional election, and the level of political polarization.2 This calculation, which is calibrated based on all races for Congress since World War II, has only a modest effect on the model3, but it still serves as a good benchmark.
asserted
it → include → benchmark
Currently, it says Democrats “should” win the popular vote for the U.S. House by 8.7 points.
asserted
Democrats → say → points
In other words, that’s what history says to expect in a midterm with a president this unpopular, even after accounting for the fact that high partisanship dampens political swings.
asserted
partisanship → ’ → swings
So … where exactly do Democrats stand on the generic ballot?
asserted
Democrats → stand → ballot
They’re up almost exactly that amount, 8.6 percentage points, after applying FLIPR’s likely voter adjustment:
asserted
They → ’re → adjustment
So 2026 is a year when current and historical trends align in a surprisingly neat way.
asserted
trends → align → way
But an environment like this would produce huge gains for Democrats.
asserted
environment → produce → Democrats
As Nate Cohn writes, we’re tracking toward around an 11-point swing from 2024, when Trump and Republicans narrowly won the popular vote for both the presidency and the House.
asserted
Trump → write → presidency
That’s an interesting number if you look at the 2024 presidential vote because it means potentially breaching the “red wall” of states that wouldn’t ordinarily be competitive.
asserted
that → ’ → states
The Aporia
