The campaign to replace outgoing Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) suggests winning in Iowa is more complicated than simply running as a Republican or Democrat, despite the state’s rightward trend over the past decade.
uncertain
winning → replace → decade
Six weeks before Election Day, Iowa Republican Senate nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) wants Iowa to know she can work with Democrats while holding an endorsement from President Donald Trump as she takes on Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek.
asserted
she → want → Turek
Hinson has released several ads in recent history touting her as a “bipartisan fighter for Iowa,” placing heavy emphasis on her ability to work with Democratic colleagues to accomplish what Iowans want done.
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Iowans → release → colleagues
Most recently, Hinson came out in opposition to the Iran war, saying it must come to an end as Americans face a financial squeeze due to the effects of the conflict.
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Americans → come → conflict
Turek is also stressing his willingness to work with Republicans, but has centered much of his campaign on a policy platform that he contrasts with what he argues are Hinson’s failures during her time in Washington.
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he → stress → Washington
The strategies of the two candidates offer a window into Iowa’s somewhat unusual electorate: Republicans hold a significant voter registration advantage after years of gains, but hundreds of thousands of Iowans remain unaffiliated with either major party.
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thousands → offer → party
As of September, Iowa has roughly 700,000 registered Republicans, 530,000 registered Democrats, and 564 registered voters with no party affiliation, according to the Iowa secretary of state’s office.
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Iowa → have → office
Tim Hagle, a political science instructor at the University of Iowa and Iowa politics expert, said the state’s electorate helps explain why the Senate hopefuls have such a strong incentive to emphasize work and results rather than simply appealing to their respective bases.
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hopefuls → say → bases
He explained that Republicans hold a substantial registration advantage, but independent voters remain a major constituency, making the race partly a contest over voters who may be less interested in partisan combat.
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who → explain → combat
“As far as the no party voters are concerned … they don’t care about the political infighting as much,” Hagle said.
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Hagle → concern → infighting
“They care more about the so-called kitchen table issues: jobs, the economy, healthcare.”
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They → care → issues
For decades, the state regularly swung between the two parties.
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state → swing → parties
Former Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) represented Iowa in the Senate together for nearly three decades, while Iowa backed former President Barack Obama in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections before moving sharply Republican in the Trump era.
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Iowa → represent → era
Hagle described Iowa today as being on the “red side of purple,” pointing to the state’s independent voters as one reason its electorate is more complicated than recent election results alone might suggest.
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results → describe → reason
That history helps explain the political identity Hinson is presenting to voters.
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Hinson → help → voters
Hagle pointed to Grassley’s longtime “Grassley works” mantra as an example of a style of Republican politics with deep roots in Iowa — one built around showing voters that a politician is going to do the job rather than wading into partisan battles.
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politician → point → battles
“Iowans tend to not necessarily go for the folks that are the so-called fighters, the people that always feel they have to fight,” Hagle said.
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Hagle → tend → folks
“It’s not so much that you’re fighting all the time or antagonistic and all this stuff, but you’re there to work for the people, and so that’s kind of the thing that you might want to portray.”
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you → ’ → that
Hinson has leaned into a similar message as she seeks a promotion from the House to the Senate.
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she → lean → Senate
Hinson sells work over fighting
On the post-primary campaign trail, Hinson has pushed her work in office to the forefront of her campaign.
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Hinson → sell → campaign
Her campaign has released advertisements in the past several weeks highlighting bipartisan work in Congress, including bills passed under former President Joe Biden.
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campaign → release → Biden
“Used to be that reaching across the aisle wasn’t just OK, it was expected,” Hinson said in an ad released earlier this month.
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Hinson → use → ad
“Some people in Washington forgot that.
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people → forget → that
I never have.”
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I → have → ?
She has also emphasized instances in which she was willing to buck her own party, but has not gone so far as to refrain from invoking Trump when discussing her achievements.
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she → emphasize → achievements
“Working across the aisle isn’t always easy, but it’s how you get results,” Hinson said.
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Hinson → work → results
In another video, Hinson pitches her plan to make healthcare costs more affordable, saying she will “continue to work every day to deliver bipartisan solutions that lower costs.”
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that → pitch → costs
Regarding her opponent, Hinson has often targeted Turek’s attendance record and emphasized her own hard work-focused campaign.
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Hinson → regard → campaign
She has posted videos claiming the Democrat has missed the majority of votes in the state House this year, noting that some votes were on legislation crucial for Iowa farmers.
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votes → post → farmers
More recently, Hinson broke with Trump over the war in Iran, calling for the conflict to end as high fuel prices have placed particular pressure on farmers and other Iowans reliant on diesel.
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prices → break → diesel
Her shift came after she previously opposed congressional efforts to restrict Trump’s war powers, voting with the majority of her party.
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she → come → party
The strategy does not require Hinson to run a campaign opposing Trump.
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strategy → require → Trump
Rather, it allows her to establish a political identity beyond the president for voters who may support Republicans without being motivated primarily by partisan politics.
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who → allow → politics
But Hinson’s campaign noted that her bipartisan progress predates the 2026 midterm elections.
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progress → note → elections
“Ashley will work with anyone to get things done for Iowa families and will take on anyone who gets in the way.
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who → work → way
Iowans want results, and that’s how you get them,” a campaign spokesperson said.
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spokesperson → want → them
“Since coming to Congress, Ashley has always worked across the aisle, that’s how she’s delivered millions in federal funding for improvements to infrastructure, childcare centers, water quality — and has gotten bills signed into law on veterans mental health and to end the tragedy of stillbirth,” they added.
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they → come → stillbirth
“She will continue working across the aisle to take on big health insurance companies and lower costs.”
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She → continue → costs
Turek has argued, however, that Hinson has failed to take action on the war she recently came out against.
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she → argue → war
“It’s easy to send a tweet, but when you had the chance to vote to end this war, you chose not to,” Turek said.
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Turek → ’ → war
…and 30 more, not listed.
The Aporia
