This story was originally published by the Inside Climate News and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.
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story → publish → collaboration
Democrats are poised to achieve trifectas—control of the governor’s office and both legislative chambers—in at least three states in this year’s midterm elections, and maybe even more.
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Democrats → poise → more
This matters because states play an outsize role in climate and energy policy.
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states → matter → policy
And when Democrats control state government, they often take substantial action.
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they → control → action
It reflects recent history in Illinois, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, New Mexico, and Virginia, which passed climate and energy legislation after Democrats gained control.
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Democrats → reflect → control
The states now have laws designed to cut carbon emissions and increase the use of renewable energy.
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states → have → energy
Each state has its own story, and I spoke this week with people monitoring the races.
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I → have → races
Headed into the election, Republicans have trifectas in 23 states, Democrats have them in 16 states and 11 states are split.
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states → head → states
Democrats have momentum, entering election season with a Republican president whose approval ratings are low, and Democrats have polling advantages on major issues, including concerns about consumer prices and access to healthcare.
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Democrats → have → healthcare
One leading factor is “grassroots anger” about many topics, said Bill Kramer, vice president and counsel at MultiState, a lobbying firm that tracks state issues and elections.
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that → lead → issues
The anger is “not particularly partisan,” he said.
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he → say → ?
“But if you’re the incumbent party, that’s who [gets blamed], and right now Republicans control a lot more of the states than the Democrats do.”
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Democrats → ’re → states
This landscape creates opportunities to advance climate and clean energy policy, said Caroline Spears, executive director of Climate Cabinet, an advocacy group that focuses on state-level issues and elections.
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that → create → issues
State trifectas “are the most powerful tool for 2027 policy outcomes on clean energy,” she said.
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she → say → energy
The outcome depends on the results of just a few races, Spears said.
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Spears → depend → races
Fewer than 25 races out of more than 7,000 legislative seats could determine whether Democrats gain five new trifectas, or none at all, she said.
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she → determine → trifectas
Here are those five states, plus some others to watch.
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states → watch → ?
Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin are the most likely to shift from split control to Democratic trifectas.
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Michigan → shift → trifectas
Since they’re in close proximity on the map, let’s call them the Northern Three.
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’s → ’re → them
To regain a trifecta in Michigan after two years of split control, Democrats need to add four seats in the House, maintain a majority in the Senate and win the governor’s race.
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Democrats → regain → race
Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, is polling ahead of US Rep. John James, a Republican, in the contest for governor.
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Benson → poll → governor
Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer cannot seek another term because of the state’s term limits.
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Whitmer → seek → limits
In Minnesota, Democrats control the governor’s office and Senate and are in a 67-67 tie in the House.
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Democrats → control → House
Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a Democrat, is likely to prevail in the race for governor against House Speaker Lisa Demuth, a Republican.
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Klobuchar → prevail → Demuth
The winner will replace Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat, who decided not to seek re-election.
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who → replace → election
The party had a trifecta until losing it when the 2024 elections led to a tie in the House.
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elections → have → House
Wisconsin has new legislative maps following a state Supreme Court ruling that found the previous maps improperly favored Republicans.
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maps → have → Republicans
The new districts give Democrats a decent chance of gaining majorities in the House and Senate, where Republicans now hold majorities of 54-45 and 18-15, respectively.
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Republicans → give → 54
Democrat David Crowley holds a narrow polling lead in the governor’s race over Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany.
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Crowley → hold → Tiffany
Incumbent governor Tony Evers, a Democrat, chose not to run.
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Evers → choose → ?
Of the three states, Wisconsin has the most potential for rapid progress on climate and clean energy.
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Wisconsin → have → climate
The state hasn’t had a Democratic trifecta since 2010 under Gov. Jim Doyle and there is pent-up enthusiasm to take action.
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state → have → action
Wisconsin has plentiful wind power but has underachieved relative to its neighboring states in passing legislation that would encourage utility-scale and customer-owned renewable energy and battery energy storage.
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that → have → energy
In basketball terms, Democrats picking up trifectas in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin would be like making free throws.
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Democrats → pick → throws
Doing the same in Arizona and Pennsylvania would be like making three-pointers.
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Doing → do → pointers
The party has elected governors, but didn’t get full control of the legislature, which has constrained them.
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which → elect → them
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, is running for re-election and leads in polls over Republican US Rep. Andy Biggs.
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Hobbs → run → Biggs
Republicans hold majorities of 33-27 and 17-13 in the state House and Senate, respectively.
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Republicans → hold → House
An outside observer may look at those narrow majorities and national fundamentals and think it’s easy to flip both chambers in Arizona, but people who follow the state say the path ahead for Democrats, especially in the Senate, is far from smooth.
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path → look → Senate
“I feel like every year the Democrats are saying they’re going to try to flip that Legislature, and they just never do,” Kramer said.
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Kramer → feel → Legislature
…and 25 more, not listed.
The Aporia
