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Trump’s Forever War Is Sucking the Life Out of Him

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Cite

Last, J. V. (2026, September 21). Trump’s Forever War Is Sucking the Life Out of Him. The Bulwark. https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-forever-war-iran-is-sucking-the-life-out-of-him

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

The Bulwark · collected 2026-09-21 · by Jonathan V. Last commentary

Quick Summary

This article is an opinion piece where the author expresses regret over previous predictions about former President Trump's handling of the Iran conflict, arguing that Trump appears unable to extricate himself from what has become a protracted "forever war." The author predicts significant negative outcomes stemming from this ongoing conflict and finds some satisfaction in anticipating Trump's potential downfall as a result.
Written by AI on 2026-09-21, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Jonathan V. Last from The Bulwark revises his earlier predictions about Donald Trump's handling of the conflict with Iran, admitting he was mistaken in assuming that Trump would end military involvement after a short period. Instead, Last asserts that Trump seems committed to an indefinite "forever war" without clear exit strategies. This prolonged engagement has significant implications for U.S. foreign policy and domestic politics, as it suggests continued tension and potential negative consequences for America. Last predicts that the ongoing conflict will lead to substantial political challenges for Trump.

Written for “Trump Foreign Policy Criticism” on 2026-11-03, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Trump Foreign Policy Criticism
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 17% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Trump says Iran war will end 'soon' with NEW deal on the table... as devastating photos show US bases severely damaged in Middle East Different event
Daily Mail
Hedges 6 of 25 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the US-Iran situation; Article A reports on Trump's statement about the war ending soon and a deal in progress, while Article B analyzes Trump's approach to the Iran conflict and his previous miscalculations.”
'Do I want to annihilate them?' Trump weighs next phase of Iran war Different event
Times of India
Hedges 2 of 25 claims Outlet record 59/100
“The articles discuss different stages of Trump's approach towards Iran; Article A covers a recent interview where Trump discusses a critical decision about potential military action, while Article B reflects on past misunderstandings and ongoing challenges in the conflict.”
Iran-US live: Trump weighs ‘big decision’ on war after UN says school attack may have been war crime Different event
The Independent
Hedges 9 of 48 claims Outlet record 59/100
“Article A describes Trump's remarks about a 'big decision' regarding Iran following a UN report, while Article B is an analysis and commentary on Trump's approach to the war with Iran over time.”
Trump defends Iran war in subdued address to world leaders Different event
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans strongly right further right than this Hedges 2 of 40 claims Outlet record 70/100
“The articles describe different parts of the ongoing situation; Article A discusses the author's perspective on Trump's decision-making process regarding the Iran war, while Article B reports on a speech given by Trump at the United Nations defending his actions.”
Iran war live: Tehran offers US plan to reopen Hormuz within seven days Different event
Al Jazeera
Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 60/100
“Article A discusses Trump's handling of an ongoing war with Iran and expectations about its conclusion, while Article B reports on a new diplomatic proposal by Iran to reopen Hormuz within seven days. These articles describe different stages and aspects of the broader conflict.”
Iran-US war latest: Trump threatens to ‘blow the entire nation up’ after Tehran warns of ‘painful strikes’ Different event
The Independent
⚖️ Leans right further right than this Hedges 4 of 44 claims Outlet record 59/100
“Article A reports on a specific threat made by Trump regarding Iran during an interview with Fox, while Article B is a commentary about Trump's approach to the Iran conflict and does not describe the same specific event.”
As Iran war grinds on, Trump to face skeptical world leaders at UN Different event
The Straits Times
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 7 of 30 claims Outlet record 66/100
“Article A discusses Trump's address at the UN regarding ongoing war with Iran, while Article B is a broader commentary on Trump's handling of the war and his previous predictions about ending it.”
Behind Trump’s bluster there’s a sobering realisation he is losing the public Different event
The Sydney Morning Herald
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 2 of 39 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of President Trump's stance and impact of the war in Iran, but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
Trump defends US interventions abroad ahead of 'big decision' on Iran: 'Settling years of unfinished business' Different event
Fox News
Hedges 0 of 5 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of Trump's stance on Iran, with Article A reflecting on past predictions and current developments, while Article B covers a speech at the United Nations General Assembly.”
Trump faces tough choices as Iran dangles deal to reopen Hormuz before US midterms Different event
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 4 of 24 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different time periods and decisions regarding Trump's response to Iran's actions at Hormuz. Article A reflects on past miscalculations, while Article B focuses on current tough choices facing Trump in the lead-up to a proposed reopening of the strait.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
12
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
17%
2 of 12 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
expected in commentary, which argues a position · beta estimate
Publisher signals
not measured
these signals count newsroom corrections; Commentary has none to count
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
110
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-21 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Bulwark · 585 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Jonathan V. Last
39 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 That shift might still be happening.
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🔮 Are the polls right or wrong? Will Sarah ever read the Triad? And at the very end, we have the surprise you’ve been waiting for . . .
2026-10-30 · assertive framing · BURN MAGA TO THE GROUND
🔮 No reasonable person could be confused by the Dan Sullivans on the ballot.
2026-10-30 · assertive framing · Stop Whining. Just Win.
🔮 1. Christian Nationalism Someday the Lord will call Donald Trump home.
2026-10-29 · assertive framing · The Power of Trump Compels Them
🔮 Maybe we do!
2026-10-27 · assertive framing · Nationalize SpaceX
🔮 1. Forecasts We’re eight days out from Election Day.
2026-10-26 · assertive framing · Who’s Right? The Polls or the Vibes?
🔮 If you have questions for Tim, Sarah and JVL, send them to nextlevel@thebulwark.com and they may answer them on an upcoming episode of TNL.
2026-10-23 · assertive framing · The Worst Person in the World
🔮 1. Asymmetry Joe Manchin will be in Maine tomorrow campaigning for Susan Collins.
2026-10-20 · assertive framing · F*ck Joe Manchin
🔮 Trump could just move her over to the Shield of the Americas, because one of the fake jobs at that fake organization just opened up.
2026-10-16 · assertive framing · The Trump Administration Is Run on Kink
🔮 If you have questions for Tim, Sarah and JVL, send them to nextlevel@thebulwark.com and they may answer them on an upcoming episode of TNL.
2026-10-16 · assertive framing · So Many Bad Things
Also by Jonathan V. Last
Final Senate Polls Are So Good, Sarah Can Barely Believe Them
2026-11-02 · The Bulwark
I Believe in the Kaiju Tsunami
2026-11-02 · The Bulwark
BURN MAGA TO THE GROUND
2026-10-30 · The Bulwark
Stop Whining. Just Win.
2026-10-30 · The Bulwark
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 39 articles by Jonathan V. Last →

Topics

America Bulwark+ to unlock Iran JVL The Bulwark

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 4× Iran GPE · 3× America GPE · 1× Bulwark+ to unlock ORG · 1× Catherine Rampell PERSON · 1× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× JVL PERSON · 1× The Bulwark ORG · 1×

Narrative

A subscription gets you: - Unlimited access to articles and newsletters including The Triad by JVL and Receipts by Catherine Rampell. - Ad-free editions of our shows (with transcripts) and member-only shows like The Secret Podcast. - Plus community chats and commenting features.
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Claims (12 extracted, 2 hedged)

I’ve been wrong about Trump and Iran a few times already: I thought he would end the war after a couple days. asserted
he → think → days
I assumed the military would never undertake a war without considering the status of the Strait of Hormuz. asserted
military → assume → Hormuz
Once the strait was closed and it was clear that America could not reopen it, I believed Trump would declare victory and bug out. uncertain
Trump → close → victory
Wrong, wrong, and wrong. Back in July I suggested (twice) that Trump could just “declare bankruptcy” on Iran—meaning he could simply walk away. uncertain
he → suggest → Iran
He didn’t take that off-ramp, either. asserted
He → take → ramp
So I say this with some humility: I no longer believe that Trump has any optionality on Iran. asserted
Trump → say → Iran
He is locked into this war until, roughly, forever. asserted
He → lock → war
If this is correct, then we have an assload of consequences rushing downriver toward us, right now. asserted
we → have → us
But there is a silver lining: Donald Trump is going to get absolutely dump-trucked. asserted
Trump → be → ?
Join Bulwark+ to unlock the rest Become a paying member of The Bulwark to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. asserted
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A subscription gets you: - Unlimited access to articles and newsletters including The Triad by JVL and Receipts by Catherine Rampell. - Ad-free editions of our shows (with transcripts) and member-only shows like The Secret Podcast. - Plus community chats and commenting features. asserted
subscription → get → Podcast
Your support helps keep our work sustainable and available to those who cannot afford a membership. asserted
who → help → membership
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