CBS News' Battleground Tracker polling is back for 2026, capturing what's on voters' minds and the key groups to watch coast to coast, as well as what it means for districts, seat estimates and control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
asserted
it → capture → Representatives
Every district and state matters, but CBS News also identifies nine key Senate and 42 House races that will likely decide the majority — all of which can change as the campaign rolls on.
asserted
campaign → matter → which
Democrats and Republicans are focusing on a small number of races in the House and the Senate as they fight for control of Congress in the midterm elections this fall.
asserted
they → focus → elections
Republicans, who currently have the majority in both chambers, are vulnerable primarily because of the unpopular Iran war and continuing cost-of-living economic pressure.
asserted
who → have → living
Senate
Republicans have 53 seats, and Democrats have 47.
asserted
Democrats → have → 47
Most of the 22 seats the GOP is defending are in states Mr. Trump easily won in 2024.
asserted
Trump → defend → 2024
Democrats must add a net total of four seats to take the majority while also defending a few seats against GOP challenges.
asserted
Democrats → add → challenges
Here are the nine 2026 Senate races to watch:
asserted
races → watch → ?
Alaska hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, but the party is eyeing the race as a pickup opportunity.
asserted
party → elect → opportunity
Iowa
GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson and state Rep. Josh Turek are facing off in Iowa after Sen. Joni Ernst decided not to seek reelection.
asserted
Ernst → face → reelection
The race has grown surprisingly competitive in a state that's shifted to the right in recent years, as affordability issues and the Trump tariff policies weigh on Iowans.
asserted
issues → grow → Iowans
Maine
GOP Sen. Susan Collins is defending her seat against Troy Jackson, who became the Democratic nominee after Graham Platner bowed out of the race in July following a sexual assault allegation.
asserted
Platner → defend → allegation
Collins has survived challenges in previous reelection fights, but Democrats are optimistic about their chances in a state that Kamala Harris won in 2024 by almost 7 points.
asserted
Harris → survive → points
Former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed are vying for an open seat in Michigan after Sen. Gary Peters decided to retire from Congress.
asserted
Peters → vie → Congress
El-Sayed is a progressive former Michigan health official who defeated a more moderate opponent in a divisive Democratic primary, while Rogers is seeking the seat after losing a bid to Sen. Elissa Slotkin last cycle.
asserted
Rogers → defeat → Slotkin
Ohio
GOP Sen. Jon Husted is defending his seat against a comeback bid by former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his reelection bid in Ohio's other Senate seat last cycle.
asserted
who → defend → seat
Democrats are hoping Brown's working-class brand will propel him to victory against Husted, the former lieutenant governor who was appointed to JD Vance's seat last year after Vance became vice president.
asserted
Vance → hop → seat
Texas
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and state Rep. James Talarico are competing in a closely watched contest in the Lone Star State.
asserted
Paxton → compete → State
Democrats saw their chances of flipping the seat improve after Paxton defeated incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn, given Paxton's history of personal controversies and more conservative positions.
asserted
Paxton → see → controversies
But Republicans remain confident in their chances of holding onto the seat, though some concede that the race will be tough — and expensive.
asserted
race → remain → seat
Georgia
GOP Rep. Mike Collins is taking on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia in a competitive race that was once expected to be the easiest pickup opportunity for Republicans.
asserted
that → take → Republicans
But a messy Republican primary slowed the launch of Republicans' general election fight to unseat the first-term senator.
asserted
primary → slow → senator
Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley are jockeying for a seat representing North Carolina in the Senate after GOP Sen. Thom Tillis announced he wouldn't seek reelection.
asserted
he → jockey → reelection
Democrats see the seat in the Tar Heel State as a key prize, representing their best chance at flipping a seat this cycle.
asserted
Democrats → see → seat
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former GOP Sen. John Sununu are running for an open Senate seat in New Hampshire to fill Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's seat upon her retirement.
asserted
Pappas → run → retirement
New Hampshire hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 2010, but Republicans are hopeful about the prospects for Sununu, whose family has been dominant in Granite State politics.
asserted
family → elect → politics
The House is currently very narrowly divided, with 218 Republicans, plus an independent who caucuses with the GOP, and 214 Democrats.
asserted
who → divide → GOP
These are the 42 House races to watch:
asserted
These → watch → ?
Arizona's 1st Congressional District
Republican Jay Feely and Democrat Amish Shah are vying to replace eight-term GOP Rep. David Schweikert, who ran unsuccessfully for governor.
asserted
who → vie → governor
Feely, an NFL veteran and former analyst for CBS Sports, initially ran in another district, but he switched at the urging of President Trump.
asserted
he → run → Trump
Shah failed to unseat Schweikert in 2024.
asserted
Shah → fail → 2024
Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani is up against Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza in the district that stretches from the Tucson-area suburbs down to the southeastern corner of the state along the U.S.-Mexico border.
asserted
that → stretch → border
The seat held by Democratic Rep. Adam Gray is one of the House Republicans' campaign arm's top targets.
asserted
seat → hold → targets
Gray flipped the seat in 2024, narrowly winning by fewer than 200 votes.
asserted
Gray → flip → votes
In 2022, he lost by fewer than 600 votes.
asserted
he → lose → votes
In June's nonpartisan primary, he had a significant advantage over Republican Kevin Lincoln, a Marine veteran.
asserted
he → have → Lincoln
GOP Rep. David Valadao is one of two remaining House Republicans in Congress who voted to impeach President Trump in 2021 over the Capitol riot.
asserted
who → remain → riot
He is the last one running for reelection, since Washington Rep. Dan Newhouse is retiring.
asserted
Newhouse → run → reelection
Valadao is running against Democrat Randy Villegas in the newly redrawn district.
asserted
Valadao → run → district
California's 45th Congressional District
Democratic Rep. Derek Tran's district was redrawn as part of Gov. Gavin Newsom's redistricting push, making his new district one that Vice President Kamala Harris won by only 4 points.
asserted
Harris → redrawn → points
…and 79 more, not listed.
The Aporia
