When Russia sent its first cruise missiles slamming into Kyiv and its mighty convoy roared toward the Ukrainian capital, the Western world expected that it would fall under Moscow’s control within three days.
asserted
it → send → days
Some commentators described it as a David versus Goliath contest which David was sure to lose.
asserted
David → describe → which
They had forgotten the moral of the Old Testament story.
asserted
They → forget → story
Yes, David was just a boy with a slingshot against a heavily armed warrior standing nine feet and nine inches tall.
asserted
David → arm → warrior
But with courage, good aim and a righteous cause, David killed the towering Philistine.
asserted
David → kill → Philistine
Ukraine not only has survived four-and-a-half years of Russian onslaught; it now has the advantage over its giant neighbour.
asserted
it → survive → neighbour
“Ukraine has had strategic momentum for the last six months,” the Australian retired major general Mick Ryan, a close student of the war, tells me.
asserted
general → have → me
“Its strike campaign is hurting Russia, and it’s hurting Russia’s reputation.
asserted
it → hurt → reputation
The extraordinary reversal of odds was demonstrated anew on the weekend; drones struck a Moscow oil refinery just 25 kilometres from the Kremlin.
asserted
drones → demonstrate → Kremlin
The refinery was left in flames.
asserted
refinery → leave → flames
Ukraine is bringing the war right into Vladimir Putin’s capital.
asserted
Ukraine → bring → capital
To reach their target, Ukraine’s drones had to travel over 3000 kilometres and penetrate one of the most intensely protected air defence zones in the world.
asserted
drones → reach → world
Moscow’s mayor said it was the biggest attack on his city yet, with some 450 Ukrainian drones intercepted.
asserted
drones → say → city
The attack was timed to punctuate the third and final day of voting in Russia’s parliamentary election.
asserted
attack → time → election
The only anti-war party on the ballot, Yabloko, was banned from running.
asserted
party → ban → ballot
Russian losses are so heavy, with total casualties estimated at 1.5 million men so far, that Putin is speculated to be preparing to announce a general mobilisation of men.
asserted
Putin → estimate → men
He’s denied any such mass call up as unnecessary “today”.
asserted
He → deny → today
Now that the parliamentary election are finished, is it a possibility tomorrow?
asserted
it → finish → ?
“There’s a chance he’ll do that,” says Ryan.
asserted
Ryan → ’ → that
“But Ukraine will say, ‘OK, we will just be killing more Russians each month’.”
asserted
we → say → Russians
The estimated current attrition rate of Russians killed and wounded is about 30,000 men a month.
asserted
rate → kill → Russians
“Until Putin changes strategy, we’ll probably just see Ukraine kill more Russians.”
asserted
Ukraine → change → Russians
Of course, Ukraine continues to suffer heavy losses of its own, with estimated total casualties of about half a million, and continuing at a much lower rate than its enemy’s.
asserted
Ukraine → continue → enemy
The Centre for Strategic and International Studies – a Washington-based research institute – estimates that, for most of the war, Russia was suffering two to three casualties, killed or wounded, for every one Ukrainian.
asserted
Russia → base → Ukrainian
But that this ratio rose to nearly eight Russians for every Ukrainian in the first half of 2026.
asserted
ratio → rise → 2026
Even that notorious pro-victor weather-vane, Donald Trump, has cooled his ardour for Putin and ceased his overt hostility to Volodymyr Zelensky.
asserted
vane → cool → Zelensky
The US and Ukrainian presidents are to meet this week.
asserted
presidents → meet → ?
Australia rightly has supported Ukraine against Russia from the outset.
asserted
Australia → support → outset
This week, Anthony Albanese is scheduled to sign a new security agreement with Zelensky when they meet at the UN in New York on Wednesday, US-time.
asserted
they → schedule → Wednesday
It’s expected that Albanese will announce some extra assistance measures to help Ukraine in its struggle beyond the $1.7 billion worth of military and non-military aid already pledged.
asserted
Albanese → expect → aid
But while the relationship so far has been all about Australia aiding Ukraine, it’s past time to ask ourselves a couple of questions.
asserted
it → aid → questions
First, in a future war, is Australia likely to be confronting a peer nation?
asserted
Australia → confront → nation
Australia’s strategists and defence planners are bracing for conflict with Beijing.
asserted
strategists → brace → Beijing
Defence Minister Richard Marles points out that China is operating the biggest military build-up the world has seen since the run-up to World War II.
asserted
world → point → II
Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong says that Australia is locked in a “permanent contest” with China for influence over the Pacific island states and ocean to Australia’s north and east.
asserted
Australia → say → north
So if an Australian David is expecting to come under increasing threat from a Chinese Communist Party Goliath, which country could offer us the most useful and practical advice in how to prepare for asymmetric war?
uncertain
country → expect → war
“Australia does not need to learn these lessons through blood,” Ukraine’s ambassador to Canberra, Vasyl Myroshnychenko, told the Indian Ocean Defence Conference in Perth in May.
uncertain
ambassador → need → May
“Ukraine is now able to work with Australia not as a supplicant, but as a genuine defence and security partner.
asserted
Ukraine → work → partner
Ukraine is ready, willing and able to exchange hard-won battlefield knowledge, operational expertise and defence technology expertise for the kinds of military support Ukraine still cannot generate alone.”
asserted
Ukraine → exchange → support
Australia’s Defence Force has been supplying military experts to train more than 2000 Ukrainian soldiers under the British-led Operation Kudu for two years now.
asserted
Force → supply → years
…and 13 more, not listed.
The Aporia
