Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
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that → welcome → House
In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur digs into our newest poll to underscore the challenge facing Republicans at the polls this fall.
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Kapur → dig → polls
Plus, Natasha Korecki and Matt Dixon examine Elon Musk’s under-the-radar midterm role (so far).
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Korecki → examine → role
Trump and the GOP lose a key edge with voters
Analysis by Sahil Kapur
Ever since he first descended down a golden escalator in 2015, President Donald Trump and his party have possessed a powerful political asset: Voters have generally trusted them on the economy.
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Voters → lose → economy
But that appears to be shifting heading into the November midterm elections.
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that → appear → elections
Our new NBC News poll released over the weekend found that 39% registered voters trust Democrats more to handle the economy, compared to 38% who trusted Republicans more — a 1-point difference.
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who → release → Republicans
While voters have been split relatively evenly on the issue between the two parties in recent NBC News polling, Republicans had long held an edge on the question.
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Republicans → split → question
Republicans had a 15-point advantage in October 2018 — one month before Democrats gained a net of 41 seats to win control of the House — and a 19-point advantage in September 2022.
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Democrats → have → September
The only other time during the Trump era Democrats led on the question of which party voters trust more on the economy was in December 2017.
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voters → lead → December
[chart]
Similarly, the latest NBC News poll showed that 55% of registered voters said that Trump’s policies have “hurt” the economy, while 26% say they’ve “helped.”
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they → show → economy
That net margin of negative 29 points is 16 points worse than Trump performed on the issue in a March NBC News poll.
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Trump → perform → poll
And in September 2018, voters said 41%-26% that Trump’s policies had helped the economy, rather than hurt.
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policies → say → economy
Inflation and the cost of living topped the list of voters’ most important issues facing the country in the new poll (28%), while another 9% said jobs and the economy.
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% → top → jobs
The issue of the economy has powered Trump in his own presidential bids.
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issue → power → bids
Most recently, in 2024, 53% of voters said they trusted Trump more to handle the economy, according to exit polls, while 46% chose Kamala Harris.
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% → say → Harris
That year, voters who rated the economy as their No. 1 issue preferred Trump over Harris by an eye-popping 81%-18%.
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who → rat → %
But two years later, voters have soured on Trump and the GOP amid the ongoing Iran war and stubbornly high prices at the gas pump and grocery store.
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voters → sour → pump
It’s deprived the party of an asset that has tended to shield them even when the chips were down, heading into an election where they are trying to hang on to control of both chambers of Congress.
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they → deprive → Congress
- Voters recoil at candidates who back data center construction, by Scott Bland
- Fewer Democrats plan to vote by mail in the midterms, by Jane C.
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Democrats → recoil → midterms
Elon Musk is flying under the radar in the Texas Senate race.
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Musk → fly → race
Republicans want to keep it that way.
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Republicans → want → it
The last time Elon Musk sank money into an election, he played a starring role in the 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court race.
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he → sink → race
He donned a cheesehead, offered $1 million checks to voters, and he and affiliated groups poured at least $20 million into the contest.
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he → don → contest
In the end, the conservative candidate lost by 10 points in what was widely viewed as a rebuke of Musk and the Trump administration.
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what → lose → Musk
Now, the richest person in the world is back boosting Republican candidates in critical midterm elections, including a bruising Senate race in Texas where Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing Democrat James Talarico, who had initially far outraised him and remains close in polling.
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who → boost → polling
But that financial tide is quickly turning — with Musk’s help.
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tide → turn → help
Unlike in Wisconsin, Musk has so far stayed out of the spotlight in Texas, even though he lives in the state, has based his companies Tesla and SpaceX there, and employs about 20,000 people.
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he → stay → people
He hasn’t announced plans for any in-person events.
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He → announce → events
And privately, Republicans say they want Musk to keep his distance.
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Musk → say → distance
In interviews, more than half a dozen GOP strategists involved in the Texas Senate race say they hope Musk follows his 2024 model of electoral involvement, which led to a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress.
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which → involve → House
Then, Musk spent more than $250 million to boost Donald Trump and his party.
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Musk → spend → Trump
Republicans believe Democrats will attempt to turn Musk into a boogeyman if he takes on a higher-profile role in Texas or other battlegrounds.
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he → believe → Texas
Survey says: A new NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group poll on the Texas Senate race showed James Talarico at 46% and Ken Paxton at 43%, within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
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poll → say → points
Meanwhile, in the Texas governor’s race, the poll found GOP Gov. Greg Abbott at 48% and Democrat Gina Hinojosa at 41%.
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poll → find → %
Media ban: CNN, Politico and MS NOW sued the Trump administration after the president banned them from covering the White House.
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president → sue → House
We meet again:
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We → meet → ?
Trump met with Mayor Zohran Mamdani today as the president traveled to New York City for the United Nations General Assembly.
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president → meet → Assembly
Trump said his proposed arch in the Washington, D.C., area will include a military complex that would house drones and snipers.
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that → say → drones
Rep. Ashley Hinson, Republicans’ Senate nominee in Iowa, called for the Iran war “to be brought to a successful and immediate end” after voting against House resolutions directing Trump to halt the conflict six times.
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war → call → conflict
As Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs runs for re-election in Arizona, she is focusing on border security and tax cuts, while selecting a former Republican officeholder as her running mate.
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she → run → mate
…and 5 more, not listed.
The Aporia
