Roughly three-quarters of voters have rated economic conditions negatively for the past year, and more than three times as many say they are falling behind financially as getting ahead, according to a Fox News survey released Wednesday.
uncertain
they → rat → survey
And by a wide margin, the Democrats are considered the party that would better handle inflation — at a time when the cost of living and the economy are voters’ top concerns.
asserted
cost → consider → living
Costs of everyday items are a hardship for voters: 61% say gas prices are a major problem, up from 48% two years ago, while 52% say the same for healthcare costs, up from 44%.
asserted
% → say → %
Majorities also view housing costs (54%, down from 60%) and grocery prices (62%, down from 66%) as major problems.
asserted
Majorities → view → problems
Views on tariffs have grown more negative since last summer, with a high of 64% saying tariffs hurt the U.S. economy, up from 57%.
asserted
tariffs → grow → %
Most Democrats and independents say tariffs hurt, while views among Republicans are mixed (41% help, 36% hurt, 21% no difference).
asserted
% → say → help
Overall, nearly two-thirds of voters (63%) say the Trump administration has made the economy worse, including a quarter of Republicans.
asserted
economy → say → Republicans
All of this contributes to greater pessimism about the future.
asserted
All → contribute → future
The portion saying life will be worse for the next generation has risen from 53% two years ago to 62% last year and 68% today, just two points below the high of 70% in 2022.
asserted
life → say → 2022
Only 8% are enthusiastic about how the government is working, with another 23% satisfied.
asserted
% → work → ?
A 68% majority is unhappy, including a high of 33% who are "angry" — driven by 56% of Democrats and 36% of independents vs. just 9% of Republicans.
asserted
who → include → Republicans
Despite these economic headwinds and with 48 days until Election Day, maybe the good news for the Republicans is that the Democrats' advantage on the congressional ballot has stayed in the single digits.
asserted
advantage → stay → digits
If the election were today, 51% say they would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 44% the Republican.
asserted
they → say → district
Since January, the Democrats have been preferred by 5-7 points.
asserted
Democrats → prefer → points
Women, those under age 35, Hispanic voters, and Whites with a college degree give Democrats their edge, while White men and non-college Whites are strengths for the GOP.
asserted
men → give → GOP
Party loyalty slightly favors the Democrats, as more of them (97%) than Republicans (92%) support their party’s candidate.
asserted
more → favor → candidate
Independents favor the Democratic candidate 53-31%, with 14% undecided.
asserted
% → favor → candidate
Higher engagement boosts Democrats: 64% are extremely interested in the election compared to 53% of Republicans (+11 D margin).
asserted
% → boost → Republicans
And more Democrats (71%) than Republicans (65%) rate their likelihood of voting as a 10 on a 10-point scale, meaning they feel certain they will vote (+6 D margin).
asserted
they → rate → scale
Among those certain to vote (10s), the Democrats’ lead in the generic ballot grows to 11 points (54-43%).
asserted
lead → vote → points
The edge holds among those in "close" counties, where the 2024 presidential vote between President Trump and former Vice President Harris was within 10 points; the Democratic candidate is favored by 9 points, 52-43%.
asserted
candidate → hold → %
"When pundits and analysts talk about the fundamentals favoring the Democrats in this midterm, they are mostly referring to the economy," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democratic pollster Chris Anderson.
asserted
who → talk → Anderson
"Time is running out for the administration and its supporters to convince voters that things are improving."
asserted
things → run → voters
Those with a negative view of both the Democratic and the Republican Party ("double haters") favor the Democratic candidate in their district by a 26-point margin.
asserted
Those → favor → margin
Voters trust Democrats on most issues in the survey: inflation (by 15 points), large AI data centers (+14), corruption (+11), and foreign policy (+10).
asserted
Voters → trust → points
The parties are about evenly rated on immigration (R +1).
asserted
parties → rat → immigration
Prior to this summer, the Republicans held a four-year advantage on immigration, and they led on foreign policy until January of this year.
asserted
they → hold → year
Four years ago, Republicans were preferred by 9 points on inflation.
asserted
Republicans → prefer → inflation
Democrats have improved their ratings on inflation by 5 points just since July.
asserted
Democrats → improve → July
Voters trusting Democrats on inflation are more likely to attribute this to Republican failures (51%) than confidence that Democratic policies are likely to reduce prices (47%).
asserted
policies → trust → prices
Those views contribute to Trump’s 39% job approval (61% disapprove).
asserted
% → contribute → approval
His approval has not exceeded 39% since April, when it stood at 42%.
asserted
it → exceed → %
His current rating trails former President Biden’s 43% at this point in 2022 and aligns with former President Obama’s 38% before the 2014 midterms.
asserted
rating → trail → midterms
Trump received 43% approval on immigration, 37% on foreign policy (one point above his record low), and 24% on inflation (matching a previous low).
asserted
Trump → receive → low
Trump’s standing puts him in a difficult spot to help GOP candidates this year.
asserted
standing → put → candidates
He lags his party in popularity, holding a 24-point net negative favorability rating (38-62%), unchanged since July.
asserted
He → lag → July
Sixty percent of voters think the U.S. made the wrong decision in taking military action against Iran, and 77% of that group favor the Democratic candidate in their district.
asserted
% → think → district
Four years ago, more voters said a Trump endorsement made them less likely to support a candidate by a 15-point margin.
asserted
them → say → margin
Today, that’s a 26-point gap (25% more likely, 51% less likely).
asserted
that → ’ → ?
Still, Trump’s approval matters within the GOP: 52% of Republicans and 75% of MAGA Republicans say it increases their support.
asserted
it → matter → support
…and 20 more, not listed.
The Aporia
