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Open Thread 452

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Cite

Alexander, S. (2026, September 21). Open Thread 452. Astral Codex Ten. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-452

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Astral Codex Ten · collected 2026-09-21 · by Scott Alexander commentary

Quick Summary

This article invites readers to engage in an open thread where they can discuss various topics freely. It highlights upcoming events such as Josh Morrison's panel discussion on AI superforecasting with Adam Kroetsch, updates from Effective Altruism college meetups, and initiatives to help nonprofits access free computing resources through cloud providers. Additionally, the article addresses concerns about AI use in a writing contest, clarifying that while no entries will be disqualified for using AI, rewards will only go to contributors who did not rely on it significantly.
Written by AI on 2026-09-22, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Scott Alexander's weekly open thread on Astral Codex Ten invites discussions on various topics, including AI superforecasting's impact on the FDA. Josh Morrison, author of a guest post discussing this topic, will participate in a panel with former FDA employee Adam Kroetsch in San Francisco on October 1. The event is open for RSVPs. Additionally, there are updates regarding EA college meetups in new locations such as Cambridge, Cairo, and the Technical University of Munich. ACX Grants also explored opportunities to access free compute programs from cloud providers but currently cannot sign up due to restrictions. Alexander encourages communication with organizations interested in providing compute resources to startups and nonprofits focused on AI safety initiatives.

Written for “General Discussion(Thread)” on 2026-11-02, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 General Discussion(Thread)
Other · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 15% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Open Thread Different event
Reason
Outlet record 67/100
“The articles are open threads from different dates and do not describe a single specific incident.”
Open Thread Different event
Reason
Outlet record 67/100
“The articles are weekly open threads from different dates and thus describe separate events.”
Open Thread Different event
Reason
Outlet record 67/100
“The articles are weekly open threads posted on different dates.”
Open Thread Different event
Reason
Outlet record 67/100
“The articles are titled 'Open Thread' but differ in dates and content details.”
Open Thread Different event
Reason
Outlet record 67/100
“The articles are open threads posted on different dates, covering general content rather than a single specific incident.”
Open Thread Different event
Reason
Outlet record 67/100
“The articles are different open threads posted at different times on the same day.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
13
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
15%
2 of 13 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
not measured
these signals count newsroom corrections; Commentary has none to count
Outlets on this story
1
Other
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-22 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Astral Codex Ten · 64 article(s) · 4 correction(s) detected
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Scott Alexander
51 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 A picaresque (broadly speaking) is about a lowlife wandering around having comical misadventures; Huckleberry Finn (1884) would be a notable American example.
2026-10-30 · assertive framing · Your Book Review: The History And Adventures Of An Atom
🔮 On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading.
2026-10-29 · assertive framing · Links For October 2026
🔮 California State Propositions Proposition 1: Authorizes $11.25 billion in bonds to build affordable housing Supporters claim it will build (or renovate) 40,000 homes; I asked an AI superforecaster1 to predict the true number, and it guessed that 22,000 would actually get built.
2026-10-28 · assertive framing · My California Ballot, 2026
🔮 I may have more of these in the upcoming week.
2026-10-19 · assertive framing · Open Thread 456
🔮 [This is one of the finalists in the 2026 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done.
2026-10-17 · assertive framing · Your Book Review: Storm Of Steel
🔮 AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI have long mentioned the possibility that their products could be existentially dangerous, but this has recently crescendoed into even more dire warnings, including suggestions that we have to pace the frontier, ie coordinate to slow AI progress.
2026-10-15 · assertive framing · AI Safety Is Not A Corporate Plot
🔮 [This is one of the finalists in the 2026 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done.
2026-10-10 · assertive framing · Your Book Review: We Present Television
🔮 When I objected that maybe we should wait for you to accept before figuring out details, they all said great, that’s absolutely right, they would contact you right away.
2026-10-06 · assertive framing · An Open Letter To Steven Pinker On AI
🔮 I’m pretty busy and will try to make up for it after that changes.
2026-10-05 · assertive framing · Open Thread 454
🔮 My wife and I could make healthy embryos, but none of the transfers were sticking.
2026-10-02 · assertive framing · Our AI Midwife
Also by Scott Alexander
Links For October 2026
2026-10-29 · Astral Codex Ten
My California Ballot, 2026
2026-10-28 · Astral Codex Ten
Open Thread 456
2026-10-19 · Astral Codex Ten
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 51 articles by Scott Alexander →

Topics

ACX Cairo Cambridge Discord FDA

Subjects

ACX ORG · 2× FDA ORG · 2× Adam Kroetsch PERSON · 1× Binghamton GPE · 1× Cairo GPE · 1× Cambridge GPE · 1× Discord ORG · 1× Josh Morrison PERSON · 1× Technical University of Munich ORG · 1×

Narrative

My splitting-the-difference decision is that I won’t disqualify this entry, I’ll let its many detractors vote against it organically at the final vote, and the various finalist perks (free subscription, right to pitch me pieces, prize money if it wins) will go only to the contributor who didn’t use AI.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-22
🔮 1: Josh Morrison, who wrote the guest post about how AI Superforecasting Will Transform The FDA, will be doing a panel on the subject with former FDA employee Adam Kroetsch in SF on October 1.
2026-09-22 · Astral Codex Ten
Open Thread 452 · assertive framing

Claims (13 extracted, 2 hedged)

Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. asserted
you → post → questions
ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord, and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. asserted
ACX → have → world
Most content is free, some is subscriber only; you can subscribe here. asserted
you → subscribe → ?
1: Josh Morrison, who wrote the guest post about how AI Superforecasting Will Transform The FDA, will be doing a panel on the subject with former FDA employee Adam Kroetsch in SF on October 1. asserted
Superforecasting → write → October
3: An ACX grantee asked me if I could sign ACX Grants up for various clouds’ free compute programs, and this snowballed into a discussion with some AI safety charities that also wanted this. uncertain
that → ask → this
The answer currently seems to be no for the clouds I looked at, but I’m still excited about helping exciting philanthropically-minded startups and nonprofits get compute. asserted
startups → seem → compute
Please let me know if you represent a compute provider or compute-rich organization who would be interested in lending some to needy startups/nonprofits in exchange for effusive thanks and free advertisements on ACX. 4: asserted
who → let → 4
Thanks to people who chimed in with concerns about the most recent book review finalist, This Is Going To Hurt, being partially AI-written. asserted
This → chime → concerns
In the comments of the contest rules, I said that “You may use AI for research and to help you with small writing tasks, but the large majority must be written by you.” uncertain
majority → say → you
This was in the comments and not the formal rules, but I think there’s a general understanding that using AI in what is at least partly a writing contest is against the spirit of the exercise. asserted
what → think → exercise
On the other hand, this was a joint entry by two contributors, and one of them didn’t use AI. asserted
one → use → AI
My splitting-the-difference decision is that I won’t disqualify this entry, I’ll let its many detractors vote against it organically at the final vote, and the various finalist perks (free subscription, right to pitch me pieces, prize money if it wins) will go only to the contributor who didn’t use AI. asserted
who → split → AI
Next contest, I’ll try to have a firmer policy, something like “any entry with a greater than 5% AI-written Pangram score is disqualified, and everyone in a joint entry is responsible for making sure their co-contributor doesn’t bring them over this limit”. asserted
bring → try → limit
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