The US president, Donald Trump, asked recently on one of his Truth Social rants: “When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?”
asserted
people → ask → rants
So frenetic and all-over-the-place are Trump’s statements that one does not know which are actual policies and which are simply noise.
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which → know → place
But if counting on the “Iranian people” to rise up and fight is indeed US policy then, as far as I can tell from within Iran, it is a failed one.
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it → count → Iran
There is no reliable nationwide polling that can tell us what Iranians think about the war in real time.
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Iranians → be → time
It comes from conversations I have had with many people.
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I → come → people
Though a social researcher, I work closely with Iranian startups and the digital ecosystem.
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I → work → startups
Before the war began, my understanding was that this environment was hardly a hotbed of support for the Iranian state.
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environment → begin → state
Quite the opposite: being an advocate of the state was generally frowned upon, not least because of the internet blackouts that had repeatedly disrupted the very infrastructure upon which the digital economy depends.
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economy → frown → which
And yet, even in this milieu, one can feel a growing detestation of the US and its war in Iran.
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one → feel → Iran
I am talking about some of the loudest voices.
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I → talk → voices
These are the people many young Iranians look up to, and they are becoming increasingly outspoken against the war.
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they → look → war
Majid Hosseini Nejad, an entrepreneur and the founder of Alibaba, an Iranian online travel agency, wrote on X on 2 September: “God willing, the day isn’t far off when attacking Iran becomes a terrifying nightmare for them, and they won’t even have the guts for such wishful thinking.”
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they → write → thinking
His social media feed is littered with similar anti-US and anti-Israel sentiments.
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feed → litter → sentiments
Many people within these circles share this sentiment.
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people → share → sentiment
This does not necessarily translate into support for the state, of course.
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This → translate → course
But one can witness the birth of a strong dislike for the US, alongside a growing desire to build Iran back better.
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one → witness → Iran
There is a wider sense that this war is clarifying something.
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war → be → something
That feeling is being nurtured by the images and stories coming out of the war: the shattering tragedy of the school in Minab, the sports complex in Lamerd, demolished homes in Tehran and, most recently, a wedding in a small southern village where people were killed and maimed.
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people → nurture → village
For the most part, these incidents do not inspire people to pour on to the streets in support of the invaders.
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incidents → inspire → invaders
If anything, they demonstrate how those waging a war from afar can come to see their prey as a faceless, nameless, storyless pile of human bodies.
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those → demonstrate → bodies
Their deaths are counted as the necessary and negligible cost of one man’s war against Iran.
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deaths → count → Iran
Tales and images of fellow ordinary citizens slaughtered have a tendency to unify a divided country against foreign invasion.
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Tales → slaughter → invasion
Such incidents rightly bring back memories of Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan.
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incidents → bring → Iraq
If they are intended to encourage people to “rise up and fight”, they appear to be producing quite the reverse effect.
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they → intend → effect
In meetings, talks and public events, an image that was once assumed widespread – that Iran is a nation kidnapped by our political establishment – is beginning to erode.
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Iran → assume → establishment
More and more people appear to be drawn towards this conclusion.
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people → appear → conclusion
Even if they do not support the state, they cheer it on if it is standing up to the bully.
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it → support → bully
This is the important distinction that Washington seems to be so naively missing.
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Washington → seem → that
A person can dislike the Islamic Republic and still dislike an American war against Iran.
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person → dislike → Iran
One can oppose the state and yet not want to see one’s country bombed into submission.
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country → oppose → submission
One can demand political change and still believe that such change should come from within.
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change → demand → change
If I had been asked in February, I would have said that the chasm between the state and the nation was perhaps unbridgeable.
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chasm → ask → state
Now I would say it has a chance.
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it → say → chance
A homegrown uprising is what the US appears to be counting on.
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US → appear → what
But if the intention is to encourage Iranians to turn against their own state, the war may be doing the opposite.
uncertain
war → encourage → opposite
The more Iranian civilians are killed, the harder it becomes to maintain the distinction between the Iranian people and the Iranian state.
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it → kill → people
And the more that distinction disappears, the less likely people are to rise up on behalf of the foreign power attacking them.
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people → disappear → them
From where I stand, people do not look likely to rise up.
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people → stand → ?
They may instead be closing ranks.
uncertain
They → close → ranks
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Hossein Hamdieh holds a joint PhD in Geography and Anthropology from Humboldt University of Berlin and King’s College London.
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Hamdieh → hold → Berlin
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
