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'No chance' tariffs will negate HST rebate, as new single-family home sales triple in August

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Blosser, A. (2026, September 22). 'No chance' tariffs will negate HST rebate, as new single-family home sales triple in August. Toronto Star. https://www.thestar.com/real-estate/no-chance-tariffs-will-negate-hst-rebate-as-new-single-family-home-sales-triple-in-august/article_7b747f45-cf42-45e5-88b2-4319582ec443.html

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Toronto Star · collected 2026-09-22 · by Anastasia Blosser

Quick Summary

New single-family home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) tripled in August 2026 compared to the previous year, reaching 692 sales from a low of 215 in August 2025. The Building Industry and Land Development Association attributes this surge to Ontario’s HST rebate program, which has offset negative impacts such as tariffs. However, condo sales remain below their 10-year average at 215 units, reflecting challenges for multi-unit projects to qualify for the rebate.
Written by AI on 2026-09-22, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

New single-family home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) more than tripled in August compared to last year's historic low, according to data from Altus Group prepared for The Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD). BILD attributed this surge to Ontario’s Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) rebate program, which has helped counteract the cooling effects of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on the housing market. Justin Sherwood, chief operating officer at BILD, stated there is "no chance" that recent tariff increases could raise development costs enough to negate the benefits of the HST rebate. The rebate was introduced in April by federal and provincial governments as a lifeline for the new-build industry facing challenges with price gaps between new and resale units and a backlog of supply. While single-family home sales have seen a significant boost, condo sales remain substantially below the 10-year average due to difficulties qualifying for the HST rebate program under strict regulations on developments’ start and end dates.

Written for “Tariffs And Housing Sales” on 2026-11-04, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Tariffs And Housing Sales
Economy/Business · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 7% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Global News
Hedges 2 of 11 claims Outlet record 63/100
“The articles discuss different economic impacts of tariffs in Canada, one focusing on new home sales and the other on rent prices.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
28
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
7%
2 of 28 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
64/100
Toronto Star's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-22 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Toronto Star · 11445 article(s) · 28 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 28 correction(s)
2026-10-26
Correction
2026-10-24
Correction
2026-10-07
Correction
2026-09-24
Correction

Who wrote this

Anastasia Blosser
8 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 What the rate hike means for mortgage payments The central bank’s move will push up lenders’ prime rates, directly affecting variable-rate mortgages, but the impact on fixed-rate mortgages is less straightforward.
🔮 That means investment firms can secure prices that individual buyers may struggle to access, tightening the supply, and the lower prices are often not reflected in public listings. Hirsch said developers are looking for ways to move inventory without accepting the deeper discounts that can come with bulk sales.
🔮 The two leading candidates for Toronto’s next mayor are pitching big ideas to solve the housing crisis, but there’s a catch: it’s not always the mayor who makes the rules. Olivia Chow has emphasized public land, non-profit housing, tenant protections and intergovernmental deals.
🔮 Canada’s first high-speed rail line could cost as much as $113 billion to build, according to an analysis published by the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) on Thursday — significantly higher than the federal government’s previous $90-billion estimate.
🔮 The bulk sale is a steep discount to the $1,008 per square foot buyers paid for new condos individually across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area in the second quarter, according to market researcher Urbanation, and offers a glimpse into how Toronto’s condo market is being reshaped by weak demand, a growing number of completed units and investors willing to buy large blocks of homes at a discount.
🔮 She had accounted for her ride home from Toronto General Hospital, the various medications she would need as she recovered from a partial liver donation, and any arrangements in case the surgery went awry.
🔮 Sherwood added there is “no chance” that the latest round of tariffs could hike development costs enough to negate the HST rebate.
🔮 Sometimes she brought him to work, where he would watch the IT and cybersecurity teams sit around computers, solving problems.
Also by Anastasia Blosser
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 8 articles by Anastasia Blosser →

Topics

Altus Group GTA HST Ontario The Building Industry and Land Development Association

Subjects

GTA GPE · 4× HST ORG · 4× Sherwood PERSON · 4× BILD ORG · 3× Altus Group ORG · 1× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× Justin Sherwood PERSON · 1× Ontario GPE · 1× The Building Industry and Land Development Association ORG · 1× U.S. GPE · 1×

Narrative

Sherwood also explained the condo market hasn’t been able to benefit from the HST rebate in the same way as single-family homes because it is difficult for projects to qualify for the program, particularly because of regulations on developments’ start and end dates.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-22
🔮 Sherwood added there is “no chance” that the latest round of tariffs could hike development costs enough to negate the HST rebate.

Claims (28 extracted, 2 hedged)

New single-family home sales in the GTA more than tripled in August from last year’s historic low, while condo sales have remained substantially below the 10-year average, according to data prepared by Altus Group for the building industry. uncertain
sales → triple → industry
The Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) attributed the increase in sales to Ontario’s HST rebate program, crediting it with counteracting the cooling effects of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on the new housing market. asserted
Association → attribute → market
“The tariffs and the global uncertainty and the trade wars have had a rather chilling effect on the market, so the HST rebate has countered that,” said Justin Sherwood, chief operating officer at BILD. asserted
Sherwood → have → BILD
Sherwood added there is “no chance” that the latest round of tariffs could hike development costs enough to negate the HST rebate. uncertain
round → add → rebate
The HST rebate on new homes for one year was brought in as a lifeline for the new-build industry, which has been struggling with a price gap between new and resale units, and a backlog of supply. asserted
which → bring → supply
The rebate has spurred an uptick in single-family home sales since it was brought in by the federal and provincial governments in April. asserted
it → spur → April
Condo sales, however, are still lagging. asserted
sales → lag → ?
Single-family homes — including detached, semi-detached and townhomes, but excluding stacked townhouses — accounted for 692 GTA sales in August. asserted
homes → include → August
That was compared to 215 sales in the same month in 2025, and is 47 per cent above the 10-year average. asserted
That → compare → average
The August boost brings total single-family sales for 2026 to 5,550, more than double last year’s record low and roughly in line with the 10-year average. asserted
boost → bring → average
That was double the number sold in August 2025, but still 78 per cent below the 10-year average. asserted
That → sell → average
During the pandemic, condo sales reached an August peak in 2021 with 3,149 units sold during the month. asserted
sales → reach → month
Combined, 907 new homes sold in August, which was up from the record-low August 2025 total but still 46 per cent below the 10-year average. asserted
which → combine → average
The benchmark price for new single-family homes — a measure that excludes outlier sales — was $1.25 million, down 14.6 per cent from a year earlier. asserted
that → exclude → sales
“We’re starting to see that in the GTA, townhomes are making up a large share of the single-family homes that are moving in comparison to the traditional historical pattern,” Sherwood said. asserted
Sherwood → start → pattern
“Townhomes are being priced to maximize the HST rebate and provide consumers with what they’re looking for. asserted
they → price → what
I think with all of that combined, it’s all coming together to provide the momentum to buy.” asserted
it → think → momentum
Sherwood also explained the condo market hasn’t been able to benefit from the HST rebate in the same way as single-family homes because it is difficult for projects to qualify for the program, particularly because of regulations on developments’ start and end dates. asserted
projects → explain → dates
With the region’s current home inventory and demand, it would take 38.5 months to sell all housing types on the market. asserted
it → take → market
In comparison, a healthy market level would take around nine to 12 months. asserted
level → take → months
The prices in the report for single-family homes and condos are gross prices, meaning they do not account for the HST rebate. asserted
they → mean → rebate
BILD said it excluded the rebate to allow for “like-on-like” comparisons with previous years. asserted
it → say → years
Sherwood said that after five consecutive months of increased sales for lowrise new homes, it is clear that the HST rebate program is working. asserted
program → say → homes
“New, single-family home prices had already moderated. asserted
prices → moderate → ?
From their peak in 2022 to the end of last year, they’d already gone down 25 per cent, and nothing was moving. asserted
nothing → go → year
What’s changed now, is that we have this rebate program,” he said. asserted
he → change → program
BILD said the building and renovation industry provides 256,000 jobs in the region and represents $39.3 billion in investment value. asserted
industry → say → value
“The residential homebuilding industry is 100 per cent domestic from a labour perspective, and the vast majority of resources and inputs used come from Canadian suppliers,” Sherwood said. asserted
Sherwood → use → suppliers
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