We’re in a war of sorts with Donald Trump’s United States, or so the prime minister tells us.
asserted
minister → ’re → us
So to understand where we are right now I turned to my well-thumbed copy of Carl von Clausewitz’s “Vom Kriege” (On War), the Urtext for people who think about such things.
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who → understand → things
Clausewitz, a Prussian general, was writing with the Napoleonic campaigns very much in mind, but two centuries later he still has much to say about different kinds of war — and the stages that mark any sort of conflict.
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that → write → conflict
It does feel as though our current trade war reached a turning point of some kind last week, with the mega investment summit that Mark Carney hosted in Toronto and his triumphal trip to Strasbourg to kick off discussions towards some kind of new alliance with the European Union.
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Carney → feel → Union
With Clausewitz in mind, I suggest the events of last week showed that Canada under Carney is moving from defence to offence in its conflict with Trump.
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Canada → suggest → Trump
It’s not a sudden break, of course, and the government must practice both forms of warfare depending on how events unfold.
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events → ’ → warfare
Until now, Canada’s been basically on the defensive, parrying the blows coming from Washington, trying to survive the initial onslaught, playing for time.
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Canada → parry → time
That’s inevitable given that Trump started the war and the enormous power imbalance between the two countries.
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Trump → ’ → countries
What does Clausewitz tell us about defensive warfare?
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Clausewitz → tell → warfare
Quite lot, as it happens (see Book 6 of “On War”).
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it → happen → War
For one thing, and this is the good news, he makes the point that defence is inherently stronger than offence.
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defence → make → offence
It’s easier to preserve what you have than seize something from someone else.
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you → ’ → someone
If you’re invaded, you know your own terrain better than your opponent and can use it to your advantage.
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you → invade → advantage
And time is on your side; your goal is to absorb the first blows and wait until the attacker expends vital reserves.
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attacker → absorb → reserves
In actual war — as a conflict like the one between Ukraine and Russia has shown — public opinion plays a vital role.
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opinion → show → role
The defenders’ morale will be higher; others may come to their aid in the face of naked aggression.
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others → come → aggression
The Carney government played defence.
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government → play → defence
It tried to mollify Trump by staying calm and not lashing back at his insults; it addressed issues it could address (like defence spending and the border); when it did try an offensive move (like retaliatory tariffs) it quickly reversed itself.
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it → try → itself
Mostly, it ragged the puck and waited for negative consequences of the Trump offensive to take their toll in the U.S. itself (especially the cost of tariffs).
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consequences → rag → tariffs
The thing about defensive warfare, though, as Clausewitz noted, is that it’s not enough.
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it → note → warfare
It’s about preservation, not winning.
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It → ’ → preservation
Therefore, he wrote, “we must only make use of it so long as our weakness compels us to do so.”
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weakness → write → us
We must go over to the offensive “as soon as we feel strong enough to aim at the positive object.
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we → go → object
It seems to me the Carney government feels this is the moment to transition to a strategy of less defence and more offence.
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this → seem → defence
His popularity is at a record low; the U.S. midterm elections may well loosen his grip on power; he’s flailing about in the Mideast; the world has grown tired of his endless aggression.
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world → loosen → aggression
The Europeans are clearly fed up.
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Europeans → feed → ?
They don’t have the gumption to stand up publicly to Trump but their open arms to Carney underline the shift in power dynamics.
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arms → have → dynamics
They, as much as the Canadians, want options to counter U.S. hostility.
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They → want → hostility
For Carney, the investment summit and Euro reach-out amount to going on the offensive.
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summit → amount → offensive
The government isn’t rushing back to trade talks.
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government → rush → talks
It’s charting its own path without flinching at every growl from the White House.
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It → chart → House
It isn’t about to roll back the latest retaliatory tariffs.
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It → roll → tariffs
Carney is even taking a few potshots at the sensitive president.
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Carney → take → president
This isn’t open warfare of the kind that Clausewitz knew well, for sure.
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Clausewitz → know → that
But the Prussian famously wrote that “war is the continuation of politics by other means” — suggesting all forms of contention between nations are driven by similar underlying dynamics.
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forms → write → dynamics
I don’t know whether Carney has his own copy of “On War” at hand.
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Carney → know → hand
But judging from how he’s shifting tactics, I wouldn’t be surprised.
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I → judge → tactics
The Aporia
