It depends on who you believe.
asserted
you → depend → who
If you believe the national polls, the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee is heavily favored to win the nomination again.
asserted
nominee → believe → nomination
A new poll conducted by the Center for Strategic Politics, for example, has Harris in the lead with 25% of the vote.
asserted
poll → conduct → vote
That’s 10 points ahead of second-place Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) at 15%, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 13%, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) at 10%, and everyone else, including Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) at 9% and socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) at 8%, in the single digits.
asserted
That → ’ → digits
One in three Democrats, according to this poll, lists Harris as their first or second choice for president in 2028.
uncertain
Democrats → accord → 2028
“For comparison, in November 2019, a poll by Morning Consult and Politico estimated Joe Biden was the first choice of approximately 20% of self-identified Democrats,” writes Chance Phillips of Liberal Currents, for whom this survey was conducted.
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survey → estimate → whom
“But back then, the only other candidate also attracting double-digit support was Bernie Sanders.”
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candidate → attract → support
The RealClearPolitics polling average tells a similar story.
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average → tell → story
Harris leads by 10.3 points, with 24.1% of the vote.
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Harris → lead → vote
She is followed by Newsom at 13.8% and Buttigieg at 13.1%.
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She → follow → %
Ocasio-Cortez does a bit better here with 11.1%.
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Cortez → do → %
While two polls included in the average have Harris in the single digits (both at 8%, and both find Buttigieg is leading), the rest have her up by anywhere from 5 to 24 points, winning anywhere from 18% to 42% of the vote.
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her → include → vote
The latter result comes from a Harvard-Harris (no relation) poll.
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result → come → poll
But if you believe Democratic power brokers, including some former Harris aides, she won’t even be a candidate.
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she → believe → aides
Axios reported that “a surprisingly large number of former aides, surrogates and donors to Harris” have told the outlet over the past year “they believe she won’t launch another campaign,” with some describing her as “doing ‘the bare minimum’” to stay relevant to 2028.
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some → report → 2028
Big Democratic donors don’t seem enthusiastic about the prospect of another Harris campaign, remembering what became of their money during the last one.
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what → seem → one
“I think it would be a very challenging path for her and it’s going to be a very noisy field,” LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, a deep-pocketed Harris 2024 backer, said at a Politico event last week.
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Hoffman → think → event
Even Newsom’s recent pledge that he wouldn’t run if Harris also did can plausibly be read as a bet that she won’t or a maneuver to make another Harris bid less likely.
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bid → run → bet
When CNN’s Jake Tapper initially brought up her name, Newsom prefaced his Sherman-lite statement with, “Yeah, I don’t know that she runs, but we’ll see.”
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we → bring → know
National polling isn’t everything, especially since there is no national primary.
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polling → be → ?
Harris’s current lead could reflect high name recognition.
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lead → reflect → recognition
Sometimes early front-runners fail.
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runners → fail → ?
In June 2003, Joe Lieberman, the Connecticut senator who had been Al Gore’s running mate in 2000, led national polls for the Democrats’ 2004 nomination.
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who → lead → nomination
Lieberman finished fifth in New Hampshire, ended his presidential campaign in February, and by 2006 couldn’t win a Democratic primary for the Senate seat he had held since 1989.
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he → finish → 1989
Democrats haven’t renominated a losing presidential nominee since Adlai Stevenson in 1956, despite having two popular vote winners who lost close, controversial elections since 2000.
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who → renominate → 2000
But making South Carolina the first 2028 primary state could give Harris a leg up.
uncertain
Carolina → make → leg
No other candidate comes close to her level of black support and there isn’t currently another black candidate of comparable stature.
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candidate → come → stature
Black South Carolinians salvaged Joe Biden’s troubled candidacy in 2020, boosted Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders in 2016, and ratified the shift in the black vote away from Clinton toward Barack Obama in 2008.
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Carolinians → salvage → 2008
Would someone who has been running for president since 2019 really pass on a race they are currently leading?
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they → run → race
Harris lost all seven swing states and the popular vote to President Donald Trump in 2024.
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Harris → lose → 2024
She is only the second Democratic presidential nominee to lose the popular vote since 1992.
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She → lose → 1992
Nevertheless, Harris’s book about the 2024 campaign sold well and she met adoring crowds when she toured to promote it.
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she → sell → it
It’s the type of thing that might encourage someone who has run for president twice before to hit the campaign trail again.
uncertain
who → ’ → trail
Depending on who you believe.
asserted
you → depend → who
The Aporia
