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Crushing poll deals massive blow for Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris’ presidential ambitions

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Khan, Z. (2026, September 22). Crushing poll deals massive blow for Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris’ presidential ambitions. New York Post. https://nypost.com/2026/09/22/us-news/gavin-newsom-leads-kamala-harris-in-new-2028-presidential-poll/

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

New York Post · collected 2026-09-22 · by Zain Khan

Quick Summary

A recent poll shows that former California Governor Gavin Newsom leads over Senator Kamala Harris in voter excitement for a potential 2028 presidential run among California Democrats, with 37% versus 28% expressing enthusiasm. This represents a significant drop from earlier this year when both had higher levels of support. The survey also indicates that Democrats see Newsom as having better general election prospects than Harris, with 59% believing he is more likely to win compared to just 9%.
Written by AI on 2026-09-22, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

In September, a poll conducted by the UC Berkeley Citrin Center and POLITICO found 37% of registered California voters expressed excitement about a potential presidential run from Governor Gavin Newsom in 2028, while only 28% felt similarly for Senator Kamala Harris. This represents a significant drop from earlier this year when 48% were excited about Newsom and 41% about Harris running. Despite the decline, Newsom maintains an edge among Democratic voters, with 61% saying they would be excited if he ran compared to 39% for Harris. The poll underscores diminishing enthusiasm for both potential candidates as they contemplate their next political moves amidst ongoing investigations and term limits.

Written for “California Poll Results” on 2026-11-06, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 California Poll Results
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 4% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Semafor
Hedges 1 of 17 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different political figures and issues: one focuses on Steve Hilton's gubernatorial campaign in California, while the other discusses polling results for Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris' potential presidential runs.”
New York Post
Hedges 3 of 28 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different polls with distinct findings related to political figures, not the same specific incident.”
Daily Mail
Hedges 0 of 39 claims Outlet record 69/100
“Article A discusses Gavin Newsom's pledge during a fly-fishing trip, while Article B reports on a poll about enthusiasm for their presidential bids. These describe different events.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 4 of 45 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different aspects related to potential Democratic candidates but describe distinct events: one focuses on responses to AI threats, while the other covers polling results for Newsom and Harris's presidential ambitions.”
ABC News (US)
Hedges 4 of 63 claims Outlet record 67/100
“The articles describe different aspects of Kamala Harris's political activities: one focuses on her campaigning for the midterms, while the other discusses polling data regarding her potential presidential bid.”
Washington Examiner
Hedges 4 of 34 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different polls with varying outcomes for Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom, not the same specific poll or occurrence.”
The Independent
Hedges 1 of 17 claims Outlet record 59/100
“The articles describe different polls conducted by different organizations at different times, with distinct outcomes and participants.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 2 of 26 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different polls, one about potential presidential bids of Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris, and another about Xavier Becerra's lead in California’s gubernatorial race.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 69/100
“Article A discusses Governor Newsom's caution to Democrats regarding Trump's declining popularity, while Article B reports on a poll concerning Newsom and Harris's presidential ambitions.”
Toronto Star
Hedges 4 of 63 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different aspects related to Kamala Harris's political ambitions, with Article A focusing on her campaign activities for the midterms and Article B reporting poll results about her presidential ambitions.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
25
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
4%
1 of 25 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
66/100
New York Post's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-22 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

New York Post · 17441 article(s) · 36 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 36 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Zain Khan
68 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 It locks in the higher income tax rates — ranging from 10.3% to 12.3% — that California has charged its top earners since 2012, which are otherwise set to expire after 2030.
🔮 Proposition 3 would make permanent the tax rates on individuals earning more than $371,000 a year.
🔮 “I think in general we will need more standardized and AI-proof measures of everything, both in college admissions and once students are enrolled at university,” he said.
🔮 Whether the exam was online or in person predicted students’ final scores better than how they had done earlier in the course.
🔮 The idyllic imagery then gives way to Hilton’s depiction of California under Becerra, with the ad claiming that gas prices would climb to $8 a gallon and families would struggle to afford driving.
🔮 The professor suggested that universities might not immediately adapt to the rapid advances in artificial intelligence, pointing to the resistance to change that often characterizes academic institutions.
🔮 At the center of the fight is a Nov. 3 election that could upend the Beverly Hills Unified School District board, where Democrats Jackie Kruger and Kim Lifschitz are challenging incumbent board President Judy Manouchehri and the conservative majority they oppose.
🔮 Every family deserves the peace of mind that their child will return home safely at the end of each school day.” On Sept. 30, Xavier jumped to his death amid claims he was bullied at school.
🔮 She also remembered a man on top of her, close enough that she could feel his breath on her face.
🔮 The pricey private school has also produced NFL stars, including New York Giants linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux, Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet and Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., as well as softball standout Maya Brady, niece of NFL legend Tom Brady.
Also by Zain Khan
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 68 articles by Zain Khan →

Topics

California Democratic Democrats POLITICO San Francisco

Subjects

Harris PERSON · 15× Newsom PERSON · 13× Democratic NORP · 8× California GPE · 4× Democrats NORP · 4× Biden PERSON · 2× POLITICO ORG · 2× San Francisco GPE · 2× Gavin Newsom PERSON · 1× Kamala Harris PERSON · 1×

Narrative

“There’s no question that Democrats see Newsom as the stronger general election prospect, even if neither he nor Harris is generating much excitement, and that shines through,” said founder of polling company TrueDot Jon Cohen told Politico.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-22
🔮 The September survey, conducted by the UC Berkeley Citrin Center and POLITICO, found that 37% of registered California voters said they would be excited about a Newsom presidential run, compared with 28% who said the same about Harris.

Claims (25 extracted, 1 hedged)

Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom are both drawing low levels of enthusiasm for potential 2028 presidential bids, with the California governor holding a lead over Harris among the state’s Democratic voters. asserted
governor → draw → voters
The September survey, conducted by the UC Berkeley Citrin Center and POLITICO, found that 37% of registered California voters said they would be excited about a Newsom presidential run, compared with 28% who said the same about Harris. asserted
who → conduct → Harris
The figures mark a substantial decline from the February-March survey, when 48% of registered voters said they were excited about a Newsom bid and 41% were excited about Harris entering the race. asserted
Harris → mark → race
Sign up for the California Morning Report newsletter The biggest news, opinion and culture shaping California right now. “I don’t know if she runs but we’ll see,” Newsom said in Montana. asserted
Newsom → sign → Montana
“But I wouldn’t run if she ran.” asserted
she → run → ?
The term-limited governor, who is also under a DOJ investigation along with his wife, is publicly weighing a run for the White House in 2028. asserted
who → limit → 2028
Newsom has been a frontrunner alongside Harris, so much so that he is dominating among Democratic voters. asserted
he → dominate → voters
Some 61% said they would be excited about Newsom running for president, compared with 39% who said they would not. asserted
they → say → %
Harris’ numbers were reversed: 55% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters said they would not be excited about another presidential bid from the former vice president. asserted
they → reverse → president
“There’s no question that Democrats see Newsom as the stronger general election prospect, even if neither he nor Harris is generating much excitement, and that shines through,” said founder of polling company TrueDot Jon Cohen told Politico. asserted
founder → ’ → Politico
If Harris were to run in 2028, it would be her third attempt to win the White House. asserted
it → run → House
In 2020, Harris launched a campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination. asserted
Harris → launch → nomination
She dropped out in December 2019, before the primaries began. asserted
primaries → drop → December
Biden later selected her as his running mate. asserted
Biden → select → mate
In 2024, she became the Democratic nominee after Biden ended his reelection bid. asserted
Biden → become → bid
She lost the election to Donald Trump The survey also found a sizable gap in how Democrats view the two Californians’ prospects for 2028. asserted
Democrats → lose → 2028
Forty-nine percent of Democrats said Newsom has the better chance of securing the Democratic nomination, compared with just 10% who selected Harris. asserted
who → say → Harris
The difference was even larger when respondents were asked about the general election. asserted
respondents → ask → election
Fifty-nine percent of Democrats said Newsom was more likely to win a general election, while just 9% chose Harris. asserted
% → say → Harris
Harris, 61, and Newsom 58, came up in San Francisco politics at the same time, building careers that often ran in parallel. asserted
that → come → parallel
In 2004, Harris became San Francisco district attorney while Newsom became mayor. asserted
Newsom → become → 2004
Harris later became California attorney general and then a U.S. senator before vice president, while Newsom became lieutenant governor and later governor. asserted
Newsom → become → president
About 85% of independent voters said they were not excited about either Newsom or Harris running in 2028, according to the figures from the September survey. uncertain
Newsom → say → survey
Among Republicans, roughly 93% said they were not excited about either candidate. asserted
they → say → candidate
The Post has reached out to both Harris and Newsom camp for comment. asserted
Post → reach → comment
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