Between us, we have six children.
asserted
we → have → children
None of them has a phone yet, and none has asked us whether artificial intelligence is going to ruin their lives.
asserted
intelligence → have → lives
They will learn that some of the people building the most powerful AI systems have warned that the technology could become dangerous in ways we cannot yet control.
uncertain
we → learn → ways
They will hear predictions that many of the jobs they might want in the future may disappear.
uncertain
they → hear → future
They will encounter arguments about truth, power, safety, and whether our institutions can possibly keep pace with machines advancing faster than our ability to govern them.
uncertain
institutions → encounter → them
We will not be able to tell them that any of it is nonsense.
asserted
any → tell → it
We don’t think it is.
asserted
it → think → ?
But another danger looms over this moment.
asserted
danger → loom → moment
As the conversation around AI grows darker, we risk becoming so consumed by what might go wrong that we stop paying attention to what is beginning to go right.
uncertain
what → grow → attention
The risks are real and demand immediate action.
asserted
risks → demand → action
It is an argument for something we think is becoming equally necessary: pragmatic optimism.
asserted
we → think → something
We work in one of the most failure-prone fields there is, trying to understand disease and determine which medicines might work in human beings.
uncertain
medicines → work → beings
From where we sit, on the front lines of investing in and creating medicines, we are beginning to see AI change what is possible.
asserted
what → sit → medicines
Historically, roughly nine out of 10 therapies entering human testing fail.
asserted
therapies → enter → testing
A successful medicine can take a decade or more and billions of dollars to develop.
asserted
medicine → take → dollars
But of course, those statistics obscure the real cost.
asserted
statistics → obscure → cost
A failed or missing medicine is a patient still waiting.
asserted
medicine → miss → ?
For most of modern drug development, scientists have started with a hypothesis about biology, searched for a molecule that might affect it, tested that molecule and, overwhelmingly, discovered along the way that they were wrong.
uncertain
they → start → way
AI is beginning to change that story.
asserted
AI → begin → story
We have had the wonder of watching this shift in human insight and discovery direction being force-multiplied by AI up close.
asserted
shift → have → AI
We recently watched a team of researchers use AI to design antibodies from scratch against some of the hardest targets in medicine, unlocking approaches that have stymied some of the most sophisticated groups in pharma.
asserted
that → watch → pharma
Nearby, another group of only five scientists used an AI-driven experimental system to move from an idea for a challenging new medicine to demonstrating what we believe are unique cancer-treating capabilities in a primate in less than six months.
asserted
we → use → months
Programs with these ambitions would conventionally require teams of specialists working for years.
asserted
Programs → require → years
What is changing is not simply the tools available to help us make predictions about human biology.
asserted
changing → change → biology
It is the speed of the discovery process itself: propose an idea, build it, test it in the physical world, learn from what happened, and begin again.
asserted
what → propose → world
The scientific method itself is beginning to accelerate, and the number of scientific inquiries, opportunities to advance health per dollar spent, is beginning to scale.
asserted
number → begin → dollar
Last month, Merck and Moderna reported that a personalized cancer vaccine for melanoma significantly delayed the disease from spreading.
asserted
vaccine → report → disease
What we find particularly exciting is how this growing clinical evidence, combined with AI tools and automated labs, can open the field to more competitors.
asserted
evidence → find → competitors
The evidence reduces uncertainty about the approach, while these tools can lower the cost and time required to pursue it.
asserted
tools → reduce → it
Together, they can bring more teams and more capital into our fight against cancer and expand the number of promising ideas that will be tested at an unprecedented rate.
asserted
that → bring → rate
Anyone claiming that AI has solved drug discovery is selling something.
asserted
AI → claim → something
Not one has been approved.
asserted
one → approve → ?
Biology has humbled generations of brilliant scientists, and AI will not repeal biology.
asserted
AI → humble → biology
Drugs will fail.
asserted
Drugs → fail → ?
Patients will respond in ways nobody predicted.
asserted
nobody → respond → ways
But we see green shoots and a remarkable new calibration of direction, not a destination.
asserted
we → see → direction
Direction is the whole game in fighting disease and improving human health.
asserted
Direction → fight → health
AI is beginning to give us better ways of finding it.
asserted
AI → begin → it
Not the belief that the dangers surrounding AI are exaggerated, or that medicine is about to become easy.
asserted
medicine → surround → AI
We believe neither.
asserted
We → believe → neither
…and 13 more, not listed.
The Aporia
