The system that will eventually become the first nor’easter of the season is bringing rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Mid-Atlantic while strong high pressure builds to the north.
asserted
pressure → become → north
A flash flood threat due to heavy rain covers the region through Wednesday.
asserted
threat → cover → Wednesday
The coastal flood risk will increase throughout the workweek from North Carolina’s Outer Banks to New England as strong northeasterly winds develop across the offshore and coastal waters, producing powerful wind gusts.
asserted
winds → increase → gusts
Seas will rise rapidly, creating heavy surf and dangerous, battering waves along exposed beaches.
asserted
Seas → rise → beaches
A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Wednesday night across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, meaning some coastal roads could be impassable.
uncertain
roads → mean → Atlantic
According to the FOX Forecast Center, persistent onshore winds will remain locked in through multiple high-tide cycles, allowing waves to relentlessly pound the base of coastal dunes.
uncertain
waves → accord → dunes
Significant beach erosion and dune scarping will develop from the Outer Banks through the Mid-Atlantic and Long Island as the surface low-pressure system forms.
asserted
system → develop → Atlantic
The FOX Forecast Center said moderate coastal flooding is expected during high tides, particularly in vulnerable back bays and low-lying coastal roadways.
asserted
flooding → say → bays
Coastal storm emerges Thursday into Friday
The storm will emerge off the coast and begin to strengthen sometime Thursday or Friday.
asserted
storm → emerge → coast
The Outer Banks are forecast to see major coastal flooding, extreme surf and heavy, continuous rain.
asserted
Banks → forecast → flooding
Some areas could experience wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, with offshore waves reaching 15 to 18 feet.
uncertain
waves → experience → feet
The region will also see widespread rainfall, although widespread flash flooding is not currently forecast.
asserted
flooding → see → rainfall
However, pounding waves across multiple high-tide cycles could lead to coastal flooding and severe beach erosion.
uncertain
waves → pound → flooding
Ocean overwash onto coastal roadways, including Highway 12, is expected, potentially creating scenes similar to major coastal events seen last year.
By Thursday and Friday, the surface low-pressure system will strengthen off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts, causing onshore winds to intensify.
Water will become trapped in back bays, creating consecutive high-tide cycles and preventing water from fully draining during low tide.
Eventually, elevated tidal flooding could spread across North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, extending into southern New England.
uncertain
flooding → include → England
The FOX Forecast Center said multiple days of continuous pounding waves will severely impact beaches.
asserted
days → say → beaches
Dune washouts and damage to oceanfront boardwalks and coastal infrastructure will become increasingly likely across Mid-Atlantic and Long Island beaches.
asserted
washouts → become → beaches
Compounding tidal flooding and heavy wave action will also begin to impact the southern half of North Carolina.
asserted
Compounding → compound → Carolina
Wind gusts along immediate coastal areas could reach 40 to 50 mph, pushing ocean water inland.
uncertain
gusts → reach → water
Nor’easter takes aim at New England this weekend
asserted
Nor’easter → take → England
By Saturday and Sunday, the low-pressure center is expected to track north toward the I-95 corridor and New England, solidifying the nor’easter.
asserted
center → expect → nor’easter
As the strengthening system tracks into or near New England, the strongest pressure gradient will impact the region, including Boston.
asserted
gradient → strengthen → Boston
However, the FOX Forecast Center said there are a few scenarios that could unfold as the storm moves north.
uncertain
storm → say → ?
One scenario is if the storm shifts closer to Boston.
asserted
storm → shift → Boston
This could turn the storm into a major weather event, featuring 60 to 70 mph wind gusts, heavy rainfall, major storm surge, and significant disruptions to Boston Harbor and the Massachusetts coastline.
uncertain
This → turn → Harbor
On the other hand, if the storm shifts closer to New Jersey or Long Island, the strongest impacts could shift farther south, potentially putting New York City on the fringe of the storm.
uncertain
impacts → shift → storm
Finally, if the area of low pressure remains offshore, coastal New England could still experience rough surf, elevated tides and breezy conditions, while the heaviest rain and strongest winds remain displaced to the south and east over open water.
uncertain
rain → remain → water
The FOX Forecast Center said this scenario is appearing less likely.
asserted
scenario → say → ?
What is certain, according to the FOX Forecast Center, is that wind gusts could reach over 60 mph as the peak of the storm shifts into southern New England, Massachusetts Bay and the Gulf of Maine.
uncertain
peak → accord → Maine
Some areas could see waves reaching 15 to 18 feet along the coast.
uncertain
waves → see → coast
Peak onshore winds, high astronomical tides, and trapped coastal water will create the greatest risk for significant coastal inundation and structural flooding along east-facing shores, including Boston Harbor, Cape Cod, and the north and south shores.
asserted
winds → trap → Harbor
Officials said dangerous seas, extreme rip currents, and massive swells will make ocean waters extremely dangerous.
asserted
waters → say → ?
The Aporia
