Last Wednesday morning, on the north lawn of the White House, the United States Marine Band rehearsed for the elaborate welcome they will bestow upon Xi Jinping when he meets Donald Trump on Thursday.
asserted
he → rehearse → Thursday
It was an early sign of the full pomp and ceremony to be wheeled out for the Chinese president on what is his first state visit to the White House in more than a decade.
asserted
what → wheel → decade
Most experts believe the show will outdo the substance.
asserted
show → believe → substance
“This is less a summit and more a spectacle,” said Kurt Campbell, co-founder of the Asia Group consultancy and a former deputy secretary of state under Joe Biden.
asserted
Campbell → say → Biden
His colleague Evan Medeiros, who was the China lead on the National Security Council for six years, concurs.
asserted
who → concur → years
“There’s been no serious preparation – expectations are incredibly low,” he says.
asserted
he → say → ?
“There’s not likely to be any serious deliverables, and to the extent this summit is about anything, it’s about optics.
asserted
it → ’ → optics
There are still big-ticket items on the agenda for this summit – particularly artificial intelligence, the growing flashpoint in the geostrategic rivalry between the US and China, which both countries wish to dominate.
asserted
countries → be → which
The summit’s key outcome is expected to be an agreement by Trump and Xi to extend a fragile one-year trade truce struck in Busan, South Korea last year.
asserted
outcome → expect → Busan
‘I think President Xi comes to Washington with a greater sense of confidence about the China mission.’Kurt Campbell, co-founder of the Asia Group consultancy.
asserted
Xi → think → consultancy
Other low-hanging trade deals are also possible, such as China buying more US soybeans, as well as an AI dialogue channel between the two sides, which was discussed in lead-up talks this week between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.
asserted
which → hang → Bessent
More important to the two leaders is the appearance of a dependable detente – a relationship of “strategic stability”, as they agreed in Beijing earlier this year.
asserted
they → agree → Beijing
Trump is staring down the barrel of the midterm elections.
asserted
Trump → star → elections
Xi has the fifth plenum, a major meeting of the Chinese Communist Party’s central committee.
asserted
Xi → have → committee
Still, when Xi touches down on US soil on Wednesday evening (Washington time), it will be with a growing confidence in Beijing about China’s status as a rival superpower and global leader.
asserted
it → touch → superpower
“They think the United States is potentially dangerous – late-stage capitalism kind of thing,” says Campbell.
asserted
Campbell → think → thing
“I think President Xi comes to Washington with a greater sense of confidence about the China mission.”
asserted
Xi → think → mission
Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, says Xi’s hand has strengthened since the two leaders last met.
asserted
leaders → say → Shanghai
“If you look at you know how Trump is currently beleaguered by challenges such as inflation, the Iran conflict, and the pressure of the midterm elections, I think this time China is in an even better position,” he says.
asserted
he → look → position
It will be Trump and Xi’s third face-to-face meeting in 12 months, over which time China’s economy has withstood US efforts to break its export-led growth model through tariffs and other controls.
asserted
economy → withstand → tariffs
Instead, Beijing is on track to record a US$1 trillion global trade surplus for a second consecutive year, while having successfully tested its leverage over rare earths supplies in trade negotiations.
asserted
Beijing → record → negotiations
On the global stage, China has seized on Trump’s tariff warfare and interventionism in Iran to position itself as stable, rational major power – a framing Beijing is poised to roll out before world leaders at the UN General Assembly in New York this week, though Xi is not attending.
asserted
Xi → seize → York
Instead, Xi and his wife, Madam Peng Liyuan, will fly straight to Washington, where they will be personally met by Trump on arrival at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday evening – a rare break from protocol.
asserted
they → fly → protocol
A second arrival ceremony will follow at the White House on Thursday, along with a military review in the Rose Garden and a military flyover featuring a B-2 Spirit bomber and four F-22 raptors.
asserted
ceremony → follow → bomber
The two leaders will hold a bilateral meeting, while first lady Melania Trump and Madam Peng will visit the Smithsonian National Museum of Asian Art.
asserted
Trump → hold → Art
Thursday night is a state dinner in the East Room of the White House, and on Friday, both couples will visit the National Archives before Xi and Peng depart.
asserted
Xi → visit → Archives
A slew of tech chief executives will attend the state dinner: Elon Musk, Amazons’ Jeff Bezos, Google’s Sundar Pichai, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Dell Technologies’ Michael Dell, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and Apple’s Tim Cook.
asserted
slew → attend → dinner
Banking boss Jane Fraser, the CEO of Citigroup, will also attend.
asserted
Fraser → attend → Citigroup
Campbell says Trump is mainly interested in the aesthetics: who will come to the state dinner, how the White House would look for Xi’s arrival, and what else to show the Chinese leader in Washington.
asserted
House → say → Washington
“You’re going to see a president focused on delivering a perspective of power and prestige,” he says.
asserted
he → go → power
“The interesting thing is how much President Trump admires and feels comfortable with authoritarian leaders.
asserted
Trump → admire → leaders
That’s just undeniable.
asserted
That → ’ → ?
He is more comfortable dealing with Putin and with President Xi – even [North Korean dictator] Kim Jong-un – than our closest allies.”
asserted
He → deal → allies
One thing that analysts do not expect to receive much airtime is Beijing’s increasing belligerence in Australia’s backyard.
asserted
analysts → expect → backyard
When China tested a ballistic missile in the South Pacific in July, Washington was largely silent.
asserted
Washington → test → July
That silence did not go unnoticed in Canberra.
asserted
silence → go → Canberra
“In the last 12 months, we’ve seen a growing assertiveness by the Chinese on maritime territorial disputes,” says Evan Medeiros.
asserted
Medeiros → see → disputes
“What I see is … a lot of probing.
asserted
see → see → probing
How much does America care?
asserted
America → care → ?
How much is the US going to push back?
asserted
US → go → ?
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
