President Donald Trump rose to power by talking to desperate, distrustful, and angry Americans.
asserted
Trump → rise → Americans
In an interview with Reason, Anthony Scaramucci provides three critical mistakes that led to this atmosphere.
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that → provide → atmosphere
Trump currently holds some of the lowest approval ratings ever for a president prior to a midterm election, with 39.5 percent approval, according to RealClearPolitics.
uncertain
Trump → hold → RealClearPolitics
A Gallup poll in February 1999 reported that 71 percent of the country was satisfied with "the way things [were] going in the U.S.," but that number has been declining for most of the last 25 years.
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number → report → years
Today it sits at just 21 percent.
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it → sit → percent
There is a deep sense in this nation that things aren't working.
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things → be → nation
In an appearance on The Reason Interview With Nick Gillespie, financier and former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci—who infamously served for just 11 days during Trump's first term—proposes some answers for how we got here and where the country could go next.
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country → serve → answers
The classic explanation for Trump's 2016 victory is that he captured a traditionally Democratic base of rural and industrial workers.
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he → capture → workers
Scaramucci characterizes this base as "once aspirational white blue-collar workers, now feeling economically desperational.
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Scaramucci → characterize → workers
[Trump] was an avatar for their anger, and they showed up."
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they → show → anger
Exit polls from the 2016 election showed a 9-point swing away from Democrats among non-college-educated voters.
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polls → show → voters
Scaramucci cites the Clinton administration's decision in 2000 to reduce tariff barriers with China as a major cause of this swing.
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Scaramucci → cite → swing
He thinks it was a critical mistake that accelerated the hollowing out of American manufacturing.
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that → think → manufacturing
Employment in the manufacturing sector had been declining for decades before China's globalization, peaking in 1979.
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Employment → manufacture → 1979
Though increased competition with Chinese industry did further parts of this decline, it also radically reduced the cost of goods for American consumers.
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it → increase → consumers
Whether or not China's globalization is to blame, the data are clear on one thing: Though median income and wealth in the U.S. have generally been growing since the '70s, the benefits of this growth have not been evenly distributed.
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benefits → blame → growth
Non-college-educated workers have seen their incomes mostly stagnate, while college-educated workers have seen their wealth spike.
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wealth → educate → ?
Decades of financial stagnation are how a voter goes from aspirational to revanchist.
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voter → go → revanchist
2. Misguided Wars in the Middle East
There was a brief window in the 1990s when it seemed like America had it all figured out.
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it → be → 1990s
Satisfaction was at its zenith; 1998 closed out with the first federal budget surplus in 30 years.
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1998 → close → years
Then 9/11 happened, and the U.S. military marched out to begin decades of wars in the Middle East.
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military → happen → East
As a financier, Scaramucci is quick to connect the budget with these campaigns abroad: "We cut taxes twice…in March '01, and in March '03."
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We → connect → March
The combination of rising military spending and falling tax revenues put the budget deficit in an unsustainable position.
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combination → rise → position
By the end of President George W. Bush's tenure, the debt stood at $10.7 trillion—since then another $28 trillion has been added.
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trillion → stand → trillion
Scaramucci thinks America's ability to absorb this debt is running thin: "If we keep the trajectory going, if we go to 200 percent debt to GDP [ratio]…that's not going to be sustainable."
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that → think → ratio]
America's debt obligation has become chronic; at almost 19 percent, interest payments as a percent of federal revenue are the highest they have ever been.
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they → become → revenue
But America's wars in the Middle East also came with a more subversive cost: trust in the government.
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wars → come → government
After 9/11, there was a small spike in trust, but the Bush administration's lies about the Iraq War and 7,000 dead soldiers rapidly eroded that trust.
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lies → be → trust
From the immediate aftermath of 9/11 to the end of the Bush administration, trust in government "to do the right thing" halved—from about 50 percent to 25 percent, according to Pew Research Center data.
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trust → halve → data
It has never exceeded 30 percent since.
3. The Financial Crisis
In 2008, America faced a crisis.
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America → exceed → crisis
As bank after bank was pushed to the edge of failure by their own irresponsible practices, the federal government authorized $700 billion to directly prop up the financial industry.
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government → push → industry
This choice was controversial, but Scaramucci defends it as essential for economic stability.
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Scaramucci → defend → stability
He believes the third "wrong decision" was the inequity of 2008's bailout settlement; money was given to the banks but not everyday people.
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money → believe → banks
Of the $475 billion distributed by the bailout, 85 percent of it went to the finance, insurance, and automotive industries.
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percent → distribute → industries
The crisis and ensuing recession hurt the net worth of most Americans, but less wealthy, non-college-educated people were hurt disproportionately more.
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people → ensue → Americans
But beyond the material weight, it was the perception of the bailout as being elite-centric that energized populism and has haunted American politics since.
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that → energize → politics
"That would piss somebody off!" Scaramucci says.
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Scaramucci → piss → somebody
In a poll taken just a month after Trump's 2016 victory, 43 percent of Americans still opposed the 2008 bank bailout.
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percent → take → bailout
Anger at the elites who mismanaged the crisis directly led to populist movements on the right in 2009 (the Tea Party) and the left in 2011 (Occupy Wall Street).
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who → mismanage → 2011
When the 2016 election came around, Trump was able to set his rhetorical sails and catch these prevailing winds of mistrust, dissatisfaction, and disdain.
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Trump → come → mistrust
…and 13 more, not listed.
The Aporia
