The United States is talking about dialogue with North Korea.
asserted
States → talk → Korea
North Korea is firing missiles.
asserted
Korea → fire → missiles
On Sept. 20, North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles toward the East Sea from the Wonsan area.
asserted
Korea → launch → area
The first missile flew approximately 450 kilometers, while the second, launched about three hours later, traveled more than 600 kilometers, according to South Korean, U.S., and Japanese authorities.
uncertain
second → fly → authorities
Both missiles landed outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone.
asserted
missiles → land → zone
The launches cannot be viewed simply as another show of force.
asserted
launches → view → force
Just days earlier, on Sept. 17, Kim Yo Jong condemned U.S.-led military exercises and warned that North Korea could respond in a more offensive manner.
uncertain
Korea → condemn → manner
She said that if military activities involving the U.S., South Korea, and Japan threatened North Korea’s security, Pyongyang would respond using all available means.
asserted
Pyongyang → say → means
President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed his willingness to meet Kim Jong Un again later this year.
asserted
Trump → express → Un
The U.S. has also adjusted the scale and duration of joint military exercises with South Korea, creating some space for diplomacy with North Korea.
asserted
U.S. → adjust → Korea
Trump has continued to emphasize that he has a good relationship with Kim.
asserted
he → continue → Kim
Yet North Korea continues its military pressure.
asserted
Korea → continue → pressure
So why is North Korea firing missiles?
asserted
Korea → fire → missiles
One possibility is that Pyongyang wants to strengthen its bargaining position before accepting Washington’s offer of dialogue.
asserted
Pyongyang → want → dialogue
For North Korea, a missile launch means more than a military exercise.
asserted
launch → mean → exercise
Each launch demonstrates to the U.S. and its neighbors that its nuclear and missile capabilities continue to develop.
asserted
capabilities → demonstrate → neighbors
Even if negotiations begin, Pyongyang may want to enter them from a stronger position than before.
uncertain
Pyongyang → begin → position
North Korea no longer treats its nuclear weapons merely as a bargaining tool.
asserted
Korea → treat → tool
It has recently rejected international calls for denuclearization and emphasized that it will continue strengthening its nuclear forces.
asserted
it → reject → forces
Kim Yo Jong has also described North Korea’s status as a nuclear state as irreversible and called for further strengthening of its nuclear deterrent.
asserted
Jong → describe → deterrent
For that reason, it is not enough to explain North Korea’s missile launches simply as an attempt to provoke the U.S.
asserted
it → explain → U.S.
They have become a central means of supporting its diplomatic strategy.
asserted
They → become → strategy
That makes Washington’s approach to dialogue more difficult.
asserted
approach → make → dialogue
Even if the U.S. reduces military tensions to open negotiations, there is no guarantee that North Korea will not interpret such moves as a sign of weakness.
asserted
Korea → reduce → weakness
Conversely, if Washington increases military pressure, Pyongyang could use that pressure to justify further expansion of its nuclear forces.
uncertain
Pyongyang → increase → forces
Ultimately, Washington faces a difficult question: How far is it willing to go to engage North Korea in dialogue?
asserted
it → face → dialogue
What does North Korea want to gain from that dialogue?
asserted
Korea → want → dialogue
When Trump and Kim met in Singapore in 2018, denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula was at the center of their summit.
asserted
denuclearization → meet → summit
Since then, however, North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities have expanded, and Pyongyang has made clear that it no longer accepts denuclearization as the starting point for negotiations.
asserted
accepts → expand → negotiations
It is also why Washington must first determine whether the dialogue it wants is the same dialogue that Pyongyang wants.
asserted
Pyongyang → determine → that
If the U.S. seeks to reduce tensions on the Korean Peninsula and manage North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats through dialogue, Pyongyang may instead seek recognition of its status as a de facto nuclear-armed state, sanctions relief, and security guarantees.
uncertain
Pyongyang → seek → state
If another summit takes place, it would therefore be difficult to expect negotiations to follow the same path as before.
asserted
negotiations → take → path
North Korea already possesses more nuclear weapons and a wider range of missiles than it did years ago.
asserted
it → possess → missiles
Its military cooperation with Russia has also deepened.
asserted
cooperation → deepen → Russia
Its relationship with China provides Pyongyang with additional diplomatic room to maneuver.
asserted
relationship → provide → room
Under these circumstances, why would North Korea be in a hurry to return to the negotiating table?
asserted
Korea → return → table
The fact that the U.S. wants dialogue could itself become a bargaining asset for Pyongyang.
uncertain
U.S. → want → Pyongyang
That is why the Sept. 20 missile launches may not necessarily have occurred on the opposite side of dialogue.
uncertain
launches → occur → dialogue
They may instead be part of the way North Korea is showing what it believes the conditions for dialogue should be.
uncertain
conditions → show → dialogue
North Korea may be sending a simple message: If you want dialogue, first recognize the reality we have created.
uncertain
we → send → reality
…and 15 more, not listed.
The Aporia
