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Vladimir Putin fears he could face be 'hanged' for failing to win the war in Ukraine and is planning to escalate the conflict, an insider has claimed, amid growing Kremlin warnings that Britain is in the crosshairs.
Sources close to the Kremlin have claimed Mr Putin has chosen to escalate the war, fearing he could face backlash from the Russian public if he ends the conflict without being able to claim victory.
uncertain
he → see → victory
In an August 22 address, the Russian president accused Ukraine of opening a 'Pandora's box' and threatened 'blowback on the most sensitive sectors of your economy'.
asserted
president → accuse → economy
Earlier that day, speaking to United Russia, the Kremlin's ruling party, he dismissed suggestions that the war was coming to an end.
asserted
war → speak → end
'The special military operation continues,' he said.
asserted
he → continue → ?
'We will move only forward.'
asserted
We → move → ?
It comes as ordinary Russians are increasingly bearing the brunt of the war, facing relentless Ukrainian drone attacks, internet restrictions and a struggling economy.
asserted
Russians → come → attacks
According to The Economist, discontent is even greater among Russia's elites, with one insider claiming they are increasingly frustrated by the length of the conflict.
uncertain
they → accord → conflict
Mr Putin reportedly believes he could be at risk if he ends the war without achieving at least his minimum goal of capturing the entire Donbas region.
uncertain
he → believe → region
'They will hang me,' he reportedly said, according to an insider cited by The Economist.
uncertain
he → hang → Economist
Firefighters deal with the aftermath of a Russian drone strike in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaking to Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit
Kyiv residents wait out an air raid and resumption of the metro train service during a Russian drone attack
The escalation may also be linked to Mr Putin's perception of US weakness, according to a longtime associate.
uncertain
escalation → deal → associate
The claim comes amid conflicting accounts of CIA director John Ratcliffe's surprise visit to Russia last week.
uncertain
claim → come → Russia
One version suggests he travelled to warn Mr Putin against attacking Nato countries, while another says he delivered a bleak assessment of Russia's prospects and sought to persuade the Kremlin leader to negotiate.
uncertain
he → suggest → leader
The 'just don't do it' advice was based on US intelligence that Russia is primed to act after its campaign on the battlefield in Ukraine stalled again.
asserted
campaign → base → Ukraine
Following the visit, the Kremlin hinted it was not looking for peace with the West, warning 'it is too early to say if the deep crisis in US-Russia relations can be overcome,' before boasting 'Ukraine is definitely losing the war'.
asserted
Ukraine → follow → war
And in an apparent bid to set his fears at ease, Mr Putin on Monday gathered in Kyrgyzstan for a two-day summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, a regional bloc that seeks to be a counter-influence to the West.
asserted
that → set → West
The group, which is celebrating its 25-year anniversary, brings together Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Iran, four Central Asian countries and Moscow-allied Belarus.
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which → celebrate → Russia
Mr Putin and Xi have previously used SCO summits to promote their vision of a multipolar world and present a united front against the West.
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Putin → use → West
It takes place four-and-a-half years into Moscow's Ukraine invasion and six months into the war between Washington and Tehran.
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It → take → Washington
Iran will be represented by its president, Masoud Pezeshkian.
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Iran → represent → president
And Russia's defence ministry on Sunday said it was gearing up for large-scale attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure in a tit-for-tat response to strikes by Kyiv.
asserted
it → say → Kyiv
'Russian forces have begun preparations for massive strikes against facilities in Ukraine's energy sector in response to the ongoing attacks by the Kyiv regime on civilian infrastructure and on Russia's oil and energy complex,' it said on Telegram.
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it → begin → Telegram
Last winter, Moscow repeatedly hit Ukrainian power plants, devastating the country's energy sector and plunging millions of people into cold and darkness in sub-zero temperatures.
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Moscow → hit → temperatures
Both sides have for several months escalated long-range strikes, targeting infrastructure such as warehouses, businesses, oil and port facilities, as well as ships, which has led to an increase in civilian casualties.
asserted
which → escalate → casualties
On Sunday, the Russian army claimed to have struck a plant in Kyiv producing asbestos and cement whose warehouses, it said, were used to store explosives, as well as a manufacturer of drones and munitions.
asserted
it → claim → drones
On Saturday, a Russian strike on an ammunition depot in the suburbs of the Ukrainian capital triggered a huge explosion and killed at least 37 people.
asserted
strike → trigger → people
Ukraine for its part attacked an oil refinery with drones in northwestern Russia, causing a fire, according to local authorities.
uncertain
Ukraine → attack → authorities
Meanwhile, Nato is facing a particularly fraught moment, as Russian drones repeatedly test the defences of countries along the alliance's eastern frontier.
But other European nations are also increasingly coming under threat.
asserted
nations → face → threat
A firefighting helicopter flies above a burning Wildberries, the Russian version of Amazon, facility following a reported Ukrainian drone strike
The roof of a facility building in flames following a Russian airstrike in Kramatorsk, Ukraine
Just last week, Russia threatened to target British factories in a 'semi-military' response to the UK's support for Ukraine.
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Russia → fly → Ukraine
On Monday, Moscow accused the UK of 'participating in this war' after Andy Burnham arrived in Kyiv for his first foreign visit since becoming Prime Minister.
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Burnham → accuse → visit
Mr Burnham had announced that the European defence firm MBDA had been given permission to share information on UK components for the long-range Scalp missile, meaning Ukraine could start manufacturing them locally.
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Ukraine → announce → them
The move sparked a furious reaction from the Kremlin, with a senior Putin adviser warning of a more aggressive response and claiming Russia now views the UK as 'evil number one'.
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Russia → spark → number
Russia's former deputy foreign minister Andrey Fedorov told BBC's Newsnight that Russia's response to Mr Burnham's announcement had been 'very negative'.
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response → tell → announcement
Asked about the threat, Mr Fedorov said: 'There's a very serious political and public pressure on President Putin today, to undertake certain measures against UK, because he is considering UK as part of the war in Ukraine, and assistance from the UK is considered as a direct involvement of UK in this war.'
asserted
assistance → ask → war
He warned a new stage of escalation would see a 'not only verbal but maybe some visible reaction' from Russia towards the UK.
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stage → warn → UK
Explaining what this would look like, Mr Fedorov said: 'It might be so-called technical reaction, maybe some hackers attack from unknown source – not from official level, of course.
'
uncertain
It → explain → course
And I cannot exclude 100 per cent that there might be some semi-military, for example.
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I → exclude → example
He said British factories producing drones for Ukraine could be targeted in such a move by 'unknown sources'.
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factories → say → sources
Hackers would also target what he described as 'concrete enterprises' linked to the production of drones or components for Storm Shadow (the British version of Scalp) missiles.
asserted
he → target → missiles
Mr Fedorov explained that by Mr Burnham handing over blueprints for the manufacturing of missiles in Ukraine, Britain has become 'much more involved' in the war.
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Britain → explain → war
'Moscow is considering steps by UK Prime Minister as direct military involvement into this conflict,' he added.
asserted
he → consider → conflict
…and 11 more, not listed.
The Aporia
