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Canada’s population growth continues to slow, consistent with lowered immigration targets

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Lewis, S. (2026, September 24). Canada’s population growth continues to slow, consistent with lowered immigration targets. National Post. https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadas-population-growth-continues-to-slow-consistent-with-lowered-immigration-targets

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National Post · collected 2026-09-24 · by Stewart Lewis

Quick Summary

Canada's population increased by 189,425 people on July 1, 2026, reaching a total of 41,798,407. This growth rate is the lowest since 1944/1945 and reflects reduced immigration targets set by the current government in response to public concerns about housing affordability and strain on public services. The number of new immigrants fell to 368,224 in 2025-2026, marking a fourth consecutive year of decline, with permanent immigration dropping in all provinces except for increases in Nunavut and the Northwest Territories.
Written by AI on 2026-09-24, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Statistics Canada reported that Canada’s population reached 41,798,407 people by July 1, 2026, marking an increase of 189,425 people from the previous year. This growth rate of 0.5%, however, is the lowest since 1944/1945 and represents a significant decline from the peak of 2.8% in 2023/2024. The agency attributed this slowdown largely to changing international migration trends, noting that Canada’s average age has also increased over the past two years due to these shifts.

The Trudeau government had previously set ambitious immigration targets, raising annual numbers from an average of 617,800 between 2000 and 2015 to approximately 1.4 million for 2016 to 2024, which contributed significantly to population growth. However, in response to public concerns about housing affordability, the Carney government introduced a new immigration plan in 2025 that aims for more moderate levels while maintaining focus on economic immigration growth.

In the second quarter of 2026 alone, Canada's population increased by 80,343 people or 0.2%, marking another low point since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 when migration had been severely restricted.

Written for “Canadian Population Growth Slows” on 2026-11-01, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Canadian Population Growth Slows
Economy/Business · 2 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans right and hedges 3% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Global News
Hedges 1 of 18 claims Outlet record 63/100
Times of India
Hedges 3 of 14 claims Outlet record 59/100
“The articles discuss population growth and migration in different countries (Australia and Canada) with distinct data points and timeframes.”
Global News
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 2 of 9 claims Outlet record 63/100
“Article A discusses Trump's claims about Canada's immigration policy and its alleged negative effects, while Article B reports on statistical data regarding population growth and changes in immigration targets over time.”
Daily Mail
Hedges 3 of 22 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of immigration and population growth in Canada; Article A focuses on a press conference by Alberta's Premier regarding costs to her province, while Article B discusses national-level trends in population growth due to changes in immigration targets.”
Times of India
Hedges 2 of 26 claims Outlet record 59/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of immigration and population growth in Canada with no overlap in specific events or timing.”
Toronto Star
Hedges 0 of 11 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of population trends in Canada and do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
Toronto Star
Hedges 6 of 86 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of immigration policy and its impact under Trudeau's leadership, not a single specific incident.”
CBC News
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 3 of 11 claims Outlet record 74/100
“The articles refer to different time periods and outcomes for Canada's population growth, with Article A covering the year ending July 1, 2026, and Article B correcting a previous estimate about the year 2025.”
National Post
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 3 of 31 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different topics related to population growth and immigration policies, but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
29
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
3%
1 of 29 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans right
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
60/100
National Post's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
2
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-24 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

National Post · 1242 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 2 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Stewart Lewis
19 article(s) here · 0 carrying a prediction
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🔮 Born in New Westminster and raised in Surrey, he went on to build his life in Williams Lake, spending 20 years as a newspaper publisher before moving into financial planning.
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Also by Stewart Lewis
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 19 articles by Stewart Lewis →

Topics

Canada Fraser Institute Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada StatCan Yukon

Subjects

StatCan ORG · 8× Canada GPE · 7× Alberta GPE · 2× Carney PERSON · 1× Fraser Institute ORG · 1× Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada ORG · 1× Nunavut NORP · 1× Trudeau PERSON · 1× Yukon GPE · 1× the Northwest Territories GPE · 1×

Narrative

In an explanatory note, the agency said the increase in the number of permit extensions and the time required to process them has made it increasingly important to better account for individuals who remain in Canada while their extension application is being processed.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-24

Claims (29 extracted, 1 hedged)

The population reached an estimated 41,798,407 people on July 1, 2026, an increase of 189,425 people from July 1, 2025, however this is the lowest annual growth since 1944/1945, says StatCan, when it grew by 126,000. asserted
it → reach → 126,000
“The rapid changes in the population growth rate since 2020 are almost entirely attributable to changes in international migration,” states StatCan. asserted
StatCan → state → migration
Immigration targets under the Trudeau government were increased in 2016 from an annual average of 617,800 between 2000 to 2015 to approximately 1.4 million for 2016 to 2024. asserted
targets → increase → 2024
However, public concern about the impact on the affordability of housing resulted in substantial reductions, noted a Fraser Institute report. asserted
report → result → reductions
In the 2025 federal budget, the Carney government unveiled a new plan for 2026-28 immigration levels, outlining a more moderate approach, while focusing on steady economic immigration growth. asserted
government → unveil → growth
By 2024, that number had more than doubled to 7.5 per cent, an unprecedented rate of growth that put pressure on housing supply, the healthcare system, and schools,” according to the 2025 Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration, which states that “Canada’s new government recognizes that this system is no longer sustainable, and we are determined to make it so, for everyone who lives in and comes to this country.” uncertain
who → double → country
The number of new immigrants to Canada fell for the fourth consecutive year, down to 368,224 in 2025/2026, says this week’s StatCan report. asserted
report → fall → 2025/2026
That is “consistent” with lower targets set by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, notes StatCan. asserted
StatCan → set → Canada
It’s the first time since 2021/2022 that the annual number of immigrants has fallen below 400,000. asserted
number → ’ → 400,000
Permanent immigration dropped in all provinces and Yukon, though it increased in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut. asserted
it → drop → Territories
Consistent with that drop, the number of non-permanent residents in Canada fell by 154,614 people on a July 2025 to July 2026 basis, settling at 2,779,774 as of July 1, 2026, or 6.7 per cent of the total population. asserted
number → fall → population
StatCan says that is down from a high of 2,984,285 non-permanent residents on October 1, 2024, or 7.2 per cent of the total population. asserted
that → say → population
This year’s drop was the largest decrease in non-permanent residents since comparable records began in 1971/1972. asserted
records → begin → 1971/1972
(Statistics Canada says it applied adjustments to the estimates of non-permanent residents for this report. asserted
it → say → report
In an explanatory note, the agency said the increase in the number of permit extensions and the time required to process them has made it increasingly important to better account for individuals who remain in Canada while their extension application is being processed. asserted
application → say → Canada
This year’s growth was lower than the growth during the first year of the pandemic, when it grew by 211,226, despite border restrictions put in place to slow the spread of COVID-19. asserted
it → grow → COVID-19
In 2021-2022 says StatCan it grew by 1.8 per cent, then 2.7 per cent in 2022/2023, reaching a high of 2.8 per cent growth in 2023/2024. asserted
it → say → 2023/2024
However, the July-to-July population growth rate has since slowed. asserted
rate → slow → July
It fell to a 0.5 per cent increase in 2025/2026. asserted
It → fall → 2025/2026
Despite these nationwide declines, Alberta continues to have the fastest growing population of all the provinces. asserted
Alberta → continue → provinces
From July 1, 2025 to July 1, 2026, Alberta’s population jumped by 1.5 per cent, says StatCan. asserted
StatCan → jump → cent
Growth was slower in all provinces over the same period, with the three largest provinces in Canada growing more slowly than the country overall: Ontario (+0.3 per cent), Quebec (+0.2 per cent) and British Columbia (+0.1 per cent). asserted
provinces → grow → country
Those provinces tended, says StatCan, “to welcome the largest share of international migrants and are thus more affected by changes in international migration levels.” asserted
StatCan → tend → levels
High numbers of international migration from 2021/2022 to 2024/2025 resulted in decreases or stabilization of the average age. asserted
numbers → result → age
But now Canada’s population is aging again, with the average age on July 1, 2026 at 42.1 years. asserted
population → age → years
In total, says StatCan, there was a drop of 154,973 people in their 20s, which “is (again) consistent with the fall in the number of study permit holders in the country, since international students tend to be young adults. asserted
students → say → country
Meanwhile, the number of people in the 60-to-64 age group (2,658,594) has fallen for the past two years. asserted
number → fall → years
Before 2024/2025, says StatCan, this age group had not decreased since 1996/1997. asserted
group → say → 1996/1997
However, the smaller Generation X is entering this age group and the larger baby boomer generation is coming to the end of their lives. asserted
generation → enter → lives
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