Three major factors are driving Australia’s immigration intake to record highs.
asserted
factors → drive → highs
All of them start in the centre of Australia’s largest cities.
asserted
All → start → cities
The CBDs and surrounding suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney are where universities are filled with international students, as well as bars, offices and delivery services that thrive on the backs of foreign workers – and where most backpackers first land.
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backpackers → surround → workers
Australia’s permanent migration intake has barely changed over the past decade, hovering around 200,000 a year under Labor and the Coalition.
But the temporary intake has exploded.
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intake → change → Labor
, more than 1 million visas were delivered to students, working holidaymakers, and skilled migrants.
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visas → deliver → students
There are now more than 3 million temporary visa holders in Australia, effectively creating an underclass of migrant workers who now count for more than 16 per cent of the working-age population.
asserted
who → be → population
Martin Parkinson, former head of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, says voters would never have agreed if the government had explicitly said it was going to have a guest worker program.
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it → say → program
“What we ended up with was this underclass of the permanently temporary,” he says.
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he → end → temporary
Like many poor policies, the situation is not the result of a single piece of legislation, but a patchwork of shifting regulations that are now very difficult to unravel.
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that → shift → regulations
It was on Christmas Island, 5000 kilometres from Canberra, in the middle of the Indian Ocean: 153 Tamil asylum seekers had just been handed over to the Sri Lankan navy.
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seekers → hand → navy
Immigration minister Scott Morrison was in the midst of Operation Sovereign Borders, a military-led forced deportation scheme of asylum seekers that would decimate the people-smuggling trade and rocket secrecy over “on-water matters” to the top of the national agenda.
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that → lead → agenda
But behind the headlines, a little-known legislative instrument was implemented that would have a much larger impact on Australia’s immigration program.
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that → know → program
Business lobby groups had spent years criticising the Rudd-Gillard Labor governments over their crackdown on skilled worker visas.
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groups → spend → visas
The Australian Hotels Association and the National Farmers Federation wanted the minimum income threshold for skilled migrants reduced.
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threshold → want → migrants
They had built on the lobbying of Neville Roach, the former managing director of Fujitsu Australia, who argued in the 1990s that Australia had to get workers into jobs as quickly as possible.
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Australia → build → jobs
The Howard government under immigration minister Philip Ruddock balanced this campaign for speed by implementing thresholds on the minimum incomes migrants could earn and tying them to inflation.
uncertain
migrants → balance → inflation
“I was not prepared to expand skilled migration by weakening the very criteria that made it valuable
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it → prepare → criteria
,” says Ruddock.
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Ruddock → say → ?
“The answer was to sharpen the targeting and hold firm on minimum thresholds.”
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answer → sharpen → thresholds
On July 1, 2014, Morrison froze the threshold at $53,900.
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Morrison → freeze → 53,900
It would stay there for the next decade.
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It → stay → decade
By 2016, the temporary skilled visa program almost tripled, growing from 98,000 to 260,000 by allowing more workers to fill jobs that paid below-average wages.
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that → triple → wages
Morrison was contacted for comment.
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Morrison → contact → comment
In May of that year, a government review by Deloitte partner John Azarias recommended pegging the threshold to wage growth.
uncertain
review → recommend → growth
The Coalition government ignored it, driving cheaper workers into more jobs.
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government → ignore → jobs
By the time it was unfrozen in 2023, 90 per cent of Australian full-time jobs were paid more than the minimum threshold.
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cent → unfreeze → threshold
Parkinson, who led a review into the immigration system in 2023, says the threshold freeze was a key driver behind the surge in lower-skilled migrants into Australia.
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freeze → lead → Australia
“The subsequent introduction of labour market agreements provided even greater flexibility to undermine the previous arrangements, allowing for the payment of wages below the Temporary Skilled Migrant Income Threshold and easing other requirements such as English language,” says Parkinson.
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Parkinson → provide → language
Labor’s former home affairs minister Clare O’Neil unfroze the threshold in 2023, taking it above $70,000 and re-pegging it to inflation.
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minister → unfreeze → inflation
But the damage had been done.
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damage → do → ?
Once they were in Australia, many workers stayed by jumping between visas.
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workers → stay → visas
The backlog of bridging visas exploded.
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backlog → bridge → visas
When bridging visas were introduced in 1994, they were designed to fill brief administrative gaps.
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they → bridge → gaps
They have now overwhelmed the department, leaving Home Affairs unable to process visas in time and keeping temporary migrants in Australia far longer than initially expected.
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They → overwhelm → Australia
“I remember a meeting in the Department of Immigration in 1993, where we discussed whether we should have bridging visas at all or not,” says Abul Rizvi, a former deputy secretary of the Department of Immigration.
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Rizvi → remember → Immigration
“The conclusion was that there will always be circumstances where we need a bridging visa [for exceptional reasons], but we should never allow the number of people on bridging visas to get much above 10,000.
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number → need → 10,000
Well, we now have over 400,000 people on bridging visas.
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we → have → visas
“This is just eye-watering stuff.”
asserted
This → water → ?
Successive governments cannot say they were not warned.
asserted
they → say → ?
In 2011, immigration researcher Peter Mares said in a lecture delivered in the Senate that Australia was in danger of mirroring Germany through its use of Gastarbeiter, referring to migrant guest workers mostly of Turkish origin who could work in Germany, but did not have political rights, fuelling social and cultural isolation.
uncertain
who → say → isolation
…and 50 more, not listed.
The Aporia
