America suddenly has a gambling problem.
asserted
America → have → problem
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket let people wager on everything from football games to elections.
asserted
people → let → elections
Politicians and regulators are asking whether we've gone too far.
asserted
we → ask → ?
But there's another gambling operation that's been sitting on street corners for decades, quietly pickpocketing people.
asserted
that → be → people
And it may offer some of the worst bets in America.
uncertain
it → offer → America
Americans bought more than $113 billion in lottery products in fiscal 2024, according to the North American Association of State and Provincial Lotteries.
uncertain
Americans → buy → Lotteries
And business is booming.
asserted
business → boom → ?
Census Bureau data show state lottery ticket sales nearly doubled from $52.8 billion in 2008 to $104.7 billion in 2024.
asserted
sales → show → 2024
Apparently inflation hasn't killed America's appetite for becoming an instant millionaire.
asserted
inflation → kill → millionaire
The odds are almost comical
Let's start with Powerball.
asserted
's → start → Powerball
Your odds of winning the jackpot are approximately: 1 in 292.2 million.
asserted
odds → win → million
You could buy one Mega Millions ticket every week for 100 years and purchase only about 5,200 tickets.
uncertain
You → buy → tickets
Yet lotteries have gotten increasingly creative at selling the dream.
asserted
lotteries → get → dream
Mega Millions increased its ticket price from $2 to $5, promising bigger starting jackpots and built-in prize multipliers.
asserted
Millions → increase → jackpots
Now Powerball is getting into football with a $5 NFL-themed game across nearly two dozen states.
asserted
Powerball → get → states
Walk into almost any convenience store and you'll see an entire wall of them.
asserted
you → walk → them
We're not selling a little $1 fantasy anymore.
asserted
We → sell → fantasy
We're selling some expensive dreams.
asserted
We → sell → dreams
The people who can least afford it
Here's where the lottery bothers me most.
asserted
lottery → afford → me
A wealthy person spending $20 on lottery tickets generally doesn't matter financially.
asserted
person → spend → tickets
But someone living paycheck to paycheck or making $50,000 a year spending $20 every week is blowing more than $1,000 a year.
asserted
someone → live → 1,000
Let's start with Powerball.
asserted
's → let → Powerball
Your odds of winning the jackpot are approximately: 1 in 292.2 million.
asserted
odds → win → million
Invest $1,000 annually for 30 years earning a hypothetical 8%, and you could accumulate more than $113,000.
uncertain
you → invest → 113,000
Instead, that money may be disappearing one scratch-off at a time.
uncertain
money → disappear → time
That's why economists have long raised concerns about lotteries being effectively regressive.
asserted
lotteries → raise → concerns
The issue isn't necessarily who spends the most dollars.
asserted
who → spend → dollars
When somebody trades on Kalshi or Polymarket, suddenly we're worried they're gambling.
asserted
they → trade → Kalshi
When somebody repeatedly hands money to a state lottery?
asserted
somebody → hand → lottery
We're funding education!
asserted
We → fund → education
To be fair, lotteries do fund legitimate government programs.
asserted
lotteries → fund → programs
U.S. lotteries transferred nearly $30.6 billion to government beneficiaries in fiscal 2024, supporting education, veterans, senior programs and other public purposes.
asserted
lotteries → transfer → education
But let's call the transaction what it is.
asserted
it → let → transaction
Government is raising revenue by selling its citizens extremely long odds of becoming rich.
asserted
Government → raise → odds
And unlike prediction markets, there's no research that's going to help you pick six random numbers.
asserted
you → be → numbers
The house always wins
asserted
house → win → ?
Prediction markets deserve scrutiny.
asserted
markets → deserve → scrutiny
Sports betting deserves scrutiny.
asserted
betting → deserve → scrutiny
And people absolutely need to understand the risks of gambling.
asserted
people → need → gambling
But government lotteries shouldn't get some moral exemption simply because the proceeds fund popular programs.
asserted
proceeds → get → programs
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
