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Fact check: Current GDP growth is lower than during 2010-2024

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Graham, A. (2026, September 25). Fact check: Current GDP growth is lower than during 2010-2024. Evening Standard. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/gdp-labour-jonathan-reynolds-growth-gross-domestic-product-b1298430.html

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Evening Standard · collected 2026-09-25 · by August Graham

Quick Summary

The article evaluates claims about UK GDP growth under different political periods. It notes that while Labour’s first year in power saw lower annual GDP growth compared to the full period from 2010 to 2024, excluding pandemic-impacted years shows a more nuanced picture. Specifically, quarterly data indicates an average of 0.3% GDP growth under Labour versus 0.5% during Conservative rule overall, but 0.2% in the last eight quarters before Labour took office.
Written by AI on 2026-10-02, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

In May 2010, the Conservative Party came to power in the UK as part of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, remaining in charge until July 2024. During their time in office, GDP growth varied significantly: while the pandemic years (particularly 2020) saw a double-digit contraction, there was high recovery growth in subsequent years. However, excluding the pandemic period, 2023 marked the worst year for GDP growth under Conservative leadership. Comparing 2025's GDP growth to the period from 2011 to 2019 shows that it was equal to the previous peak year of 2019. Overall, when considering the entire period from 2010 to 2024, GDP growth in 2025 ranks as the joint 11th lowest out of 16 years. Thus, Labour's economic performance is worse than the Conservatives' when assessing their full term, excluding pandemic-affected years.

Written for “Economic Growth Comparison” on 2026-11-02, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Economic Growth Comparison
Economy/Business · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans right and hedges 6% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
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Hedges 2 of 26 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of economic performance over varying time periods and do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
Evening Standard
Hedges 1 of 6 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different time periods and economic outcomes for the UK economy.”
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Hedges 3 of 15 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles describe different economic data points and time periods.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
18
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
6%
1 of 18 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans right
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
64/100
Evening Standard's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-25 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Evening Standard · 8127 article(s) · 73 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 73 correction(s)

Who wrote this

August Graham
3 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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🔮 The party came to power in May 2010 as part of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
🔮 It did not climb back above 700,000 for over a year when it reached 771,000 in the three months to May 2021.
2026-09-18 · assertive framing · Fact check: Vacancy numbers are at a five-year low
Also by August Graham
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

Topics

Conservatives Labour the Conservative Party the Liberal Democrats

Subjects

Labour NORP · 7× Conservatives NORP · 5× Reynolds PERSON · 1× the Conservative Party ORG · 1× the Liberal Democrats ORG · 1×

Narrative

If instead comparing 2025 to the period from 2011 to 2019 – to strip out years impacted by the pandemic and include only years in which the Conservatives were fully in charge – then growth in 2025 was equal to 2019.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-25
🔮 The party came to power in May 2010 as part of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
2026-09-25 · Evening Standard
Fact check: Current GDP growth is lower than during 2010-2024 · assertive framing

Claims (18 extracted, 1 hedged)

This depends on what time period is used to make the comparison. asserted
period → depend → comparison
Gross domestic product (GDP) was growing very slowly in the period just before Labour came to power. asserted
Labour → grow → power
So if comparing that with Labour’s record then Mr Reynolds is right. asserted
Reynolds → compare → record
However, Labour’s record to date is worse than the Conservatives if comparing it with the entire period the Tories were in charge from 2010 to 2024, even when including the pandemic. asserted
Tories → compare → pandemic
However, apart from 2020 when the country went through pandemic lockdowns, 2023 was the worst year for GDP growth in the Conservatives’ period in charge. asserted
2023 → go → charge
The party came to power in May 2010 as part of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. uncertain
party → come → Democrats
It remained in power until the July 2024 general election. asserted
It → remain → election
This means there were 13 full calendar years when the Conservative Party was in power in the UK. asserted
Party → mean → UK
In the early 2020s GDP was heavily impacted by the pandemic, seeing a double-digit contraction in 2020 followed by very high growth in the following two years. asserted
GDP → impact → years
If looking at the whole period between 2010 and 2025, then annual GDP growth in 2025 was the joint 11th lowest out of 16 years. asserted
growth → look → years
If instead comparing 2025 to the period from 2011 to 2019 – to strip out years impacted by the pandemic and include only years in which the Conservatives were fully in charge – then growth in 2025 was equal to 2019. asserted
growth → compare → 2019
In the period from 2011 to 2023, average annual GDP growth was 1.6%, compared with 1.3% for 2025. asserted
growth → compare → 2025
Quarterly GDP growth There has only been one full year in which Labour has been in charge, meaning it is difficult to compare with prior years. asserted
it → mean → years
Looking at quarterly GDP growth instead provides a few more data points. asserted
Looking → look → points
Analysis of quarterly growth shows that in the 56 full quarters that the Conservatives were in charge, quarterly GDP grew by an average of 0.5%. asserted
GDP → show → %
But comparing the economy under Labour with the economy just before Labour took over shows improvements in the short-term trend. asserted
Labour → compare → trend
In the last eight quarters of the Conservatives being in power, GDP growth averaged just 0.2%. asserted
growth → average → %
This covers the period from July 2022 – a few months after a majority of the pandemic-era restrictions had been lifted – to July 2024. asserted
majority → cover → July
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