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UK economy grows faster than first thought amid service sector boost

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Williams, H. (2026, September 30). UK economy grows faster than first thought amid service sector boost. Evening Standard. https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/john-healey-gross-domestic-product-gdp-office-for-national-statistics-iran-b1298935.html

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Evening Standard · collected 2026-09-30 · by Holly Williams

Quick Summary

The UK economy grew by 0.5% between April and June, according to a revised estimate from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), driven primarily by an upwardly revised 0.6% growth in the services sector. Despite this positive update, economists predict that soaring energy and fuel prices due to the Iran conflict will likely slow economic expansion towards the end of the year, with most forecasts predicting 1.2% annual growth overall.
Written by AI on 2026-09-30, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

The UK economy grew by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2025, surpassing the initial estimate of 0.4%, driven primarily by stronger growth in the services sector. However, this improved outlook was tempered by revisions to previous years' data, revealing that overall economic growth for 2025 is actually 1.2%, down from a previously reported 1.3%. Liz McKeown, ONS director of economic statistics, highlighted the incorporation of new and better data sources for a clearer picture of service sector activity. Despite this positive revision, experts predict challenges ahead due to soaring energy and fuel prices exacerbated by tensions with Iran, potentially leading to no growth in the second half of 2025. Analysts warn that household energy bills could rise by 16% starting January, impacting consumer spending.

Written for “UK Economy Growth Revision” on 2026-10-31, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 UK Economy Growth Revision
Economy/Business · 2 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 20% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Evening Standard
Hedges 1 of 6 claims Outlet record 65/100
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 1 of 18 claims Outlet record 65/100
“The articles describe different economic data points and time periods.”
Evening Standard
Hedges 3 of 14 claims Outlet record 65/100
“The articles describe different aspects of the UK economy at distinct times, with Article A focusing on GDP growth revisions and Article B on service sector price increases due to fuel surges.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
15
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
20%
3 of 15 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
65/100
Evening Standard's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
2
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-30 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Evening Standard · 7849 article(s) · 64 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 64 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Holly Williams
88 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 He said the property market was expected to remain under pressure, but should recover once the energy price shock fades.
🔮 He said the property market was expected to remain under pressure, but should recover once the energy price shock fades.
🔮 He said the property market was expected to remain under pressure, but should recover once the energy price shock fades.
🔮 High street support pledged but gambling firms set to pay the price Chancellor John Healey has unveiled further support for Britain’s embattled high streets, with plans to pay for it by hitting gambling firms with more tax hikes and launching an online sales tax crackdown. Gambling firms will see duty on machine games with stakes over £1 rise from 20% to 25% from April next year to help pay for an extension of business rates support for a raft of high street businesses.
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🔮 GSK revealed in first half results in July that annual costs are set to be cut by £1.9 billion over the next three years to fund investment, ramp up R&D and help offset the hit when one of its key HIV treatments, dolutegravir, comes off its patent.
2026-10-28 · assertive framing · GSK sees falling vaccine sales take shine off earnings
🔮 Chancellor set to U-turn on Isa allowance cut to £12,000 – reports Mr Healey is said to believe the allowance cut was the wrong tool to persuade Britons to invest more in stocks and shares and would rather look to educate savers on the benefits of equity investing, according to the Financial Times.
🔮 Chancellor set to U-turn on Isa allowance cut to £12,000 – reports Mr Healey is said to believe the allowance cut was the wrong tool to persuade Britons to invest more in stocks and shares and would rather look to educate savers on the benefits of equity investing, according to the Financial Times. Former chancellor Rachel Reeves announced the Isa cut for savers aged under 65 at the autumn budget last year, with the change set to come into effect in April 2027, as she looked to encourage investment in the stock market.
🔮 Royal Mail, whose owner International Distribution Services was bought last year by Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky, is rolling out major reforms that will result in second-class post only being delivered on alternate weekdays with Saturday second-class deliveries scrapped.
🔮 It said full-year results were now set to beat market expectations, given the “strong financial performance and meaningful strategic progress in the first nine months of 2026”.
Also by Holly Williams
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 88 articles by Holly Williams →

Topics

Cornwall Insight Iran ONS The Office for National Statistics WPI Strategy

Subjects

Iran GPE · 3× ONS ORG · 3× Beck PERSON · 1× Cornwall Insight ORG · 1× Investec ORG · 1× Martin Beck PERSON · 1× Sandra Horsfield PERSON · 1× The Office for National Statistics ORG · 1× WPI Strategy ORG · 1× the Bank of England ORG · 1×

Narrative

The latest ONS stats painted a resilient picture for household finances despite price pressures amid the Iran war, with consumer spending growth remained at the previous estimate of 0.3% in the second quarter, while business investment growth was revised up to 1.8%.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-30
🔮 While the UK economy has so far defied the gloom, experts are predicting a tougher end to the year as soaring energy and fuel prices caused by the Iran war are set to weigh on spending and growth.
2026-09-30 · Evening Standard
UK economy grows faster than first thought amid service sector boost · assertive framing

Claims (15 extracted, 3 hedged)

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said UK gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.5% between April and June, revised up from the 0.4% previous estimate thanks to stronger growth in the services sector. asserted
product → say → sector
It follows growth of 0.6% in the first three months of the year. asserted
It → follow → year
But revisions to past data also revealed growth was weaker than first thought last year, with growth of 1.2% for 2025 as a whole, down from the 1.3% previously recorded. asserted
growth → reveal → %
He acknowledged the building pressures from the Iran war, adding: “This is fragile with big global pressures, but we’ll keep driving for growth in every postcode.” asserted
we → acknowledge → postcode
While the UK economy has so far defied the gloom, experts are predicting a tougher end to the year as soaring energy and fuel prices caused by the Iran war are set to weigh on spending and growth. asserted
prices → defy → spending
The latest forecast from analysts Cornwall Insight on Wednesday warned annual household energy bills could soar by 16% in January – the largest rise for four years. uncertain
bills → warn → years
Most economists are predicting 1.2% growth for the year as a whole, which would point to “virtually no expansion over the second half of this year”, according to WPI Strategy chief economist Martin Beck. uncertain
which → predict → Beck
He said: “High petrol prices, rising household energy bills and uncertainty ahead of the Budget are likely to take some momentum out of growth over the coming months.” asserted
prices → say → months
Read More The ONS said second-quarter growth in the services sector stood at an upwardly revised 0.6%, with June seeing a bump as firms reported buoyant trade thanks to prolonged hot weather and the start of the World Cup football tournament. asserted
firms → read → tournament
Recent figures also revealed the UK economy recorded surprise growth of 0.4% in July as the AI spending boom helped deliver a boost, showing a more resilient than expected to start to the third quarter. asserted
boom → reveal → quarter
The latest ONS stats painted a resilient picture for household finances despite price pressures amid the Iran war, with consumer spending growth remained at the previous estimate of 0.3% in the second quarter, while business investment growth was revised up to 1.8%. asserted
growth → paint → %
Households are also saving robustly with the saving ratio increasing from 8.6% to 8.8% as a 1% rise in real household incomes – following a decrease of 0.8% in the previous three months – outpaced growth in spending. asserted
rise → save → spending
“The saving ratio remains comfortably above its pre-Covid 2015–19 average of 6.6%, suggesting there is scope for consumption to grow faster than incomes if economic uncertainty begins to recede,” Mr Beck said. asserted
Beck → remain → incomes
Investec economist Sandra Horsfield said the savings ratio pick up was likely as a result of recent attractive deals as banks have increased rates on lending and borrowing amid mounting speculation the Bank of England may hike the base rate before the year end. uncertain
Bank → say → end
“Given that market interest rates turned up again as the Iran conflict sent energy prices higher, incentives for households to keep saving have increased,” she said. asserted
she → give → prices
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