Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva spoke in no uncertain terms at the opening of the UN General Assembly on Tuesday in New York: "Brazil does not belong in anyone's backyard," the Brazilian president said.
asserted
president → speak → backyard
His comment was directed at his US counterpart Donald Trump, despite Trump not being in attendance.
asserted
Trump → direct → attendance
The US president has repeatedly interfered with Brazilian domestic politics, siding with former President Jair Messias Bolsonaro and the far-right opposition.
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president → interfere → Bolsonaro
In July, Trump imposed sanctions on a judge who found Bolsonaro guilty of attempting a coup and sentenced him to 27 years in jail.
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Bolsonaro → impose → jail
Washington only lifted the sanctions after negotiating with Lula.
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Washington → lift → Lula
Bolsonaro's eldest son Flavio is Lula's biggest challenger in the upcoming presidential election on October 4, and polls currently show the two of them to be neck and neck in a potential runoff.
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two → show → runoff
The election in the world's fifth largest country is drawing a great deal of international attention.
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election → draw → attention
Brazil is an agricultural giant and very rich in natural resources — boasting rare earth elements, vast water resources and enormous crude oil reserves.
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Brazil → boast → elements
Brazil one of South America's last bastions of the left
Lula is the "last man standing" of the South American left, while Flavio Bolsonaro is part of an increasingly strong far-right camp.
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Bolsonaro → stand → camp
Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Chile, Ecuador and Colombia all have governments that are sympathetic to Trump.
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that → have → Trump
And since January, Venezuela has been what some describe as a US protectorate.
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some → describe → protectorate
Foreign policy hasn't played a big role in the campaign, but this election will nonetheless decide whether Brazil moves closer to Trump's US.
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Brazil → play → US
Washington is seeking economic and military dominance in South America through the Shield of the Americas initiative, focused on combating violent cartels.
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Washington → seek → cartels
After his military intervention in Venezuela, Trump is now exerting economic pressure on Mexico and Cuba.
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Trump → exert → Mexico
At the same time, he is trying to counter Chinese influence in the region.
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he → try → region
For his part, Lula is an advocate of multilateralist diplomacy, wanting Brazil to engage in dialogue and trade with everybody.
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Brazil → want → everybody
Flavio Bolsonaro favors a conservative alliance with the US and other right-wing states.
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Bolsonaro → favor → US
But for Leonardo Paz from the Brazilian Fundacao Getulio Vargas think tank, a Bolsonaro victory would not necessarily automatically mean better relations with the US.
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victory → mean → US
He told DW that Lula had established a largely normal relationship with Trump — both are 80 years old — despite some initial friction.
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both → tell → friction
The two leaders got along well, said Paz, even if Lula has not succumbed to Trump's pressure.
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Lula → get → pressure
Paz did admit that if Bolsonaro won, the 45-year-old would be more likely to accommodate Trump, pointing out that his father Jair had made far-reaching concessions to the US when he was president.
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he → admit → US
During Jair Bolsonaro's time in office from 2019 to 2023, Brazil agreed to forgo its "developing country status" in World Trade Organization negotiations in exchange for a mere promise that the US would back its bid to become a member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
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US → agree → Cooperation
Trump also said he was considering giving Brazil NATO "privileges."
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he → say → privileges
Neither promise came to anything.
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promise → come → anything
"While relations with the US would continue as they are with Lula, it is completely unclear what a Flavio Bolsonaro presidency would mean," Rubens Ricupero, a former Brazilian diplomat and minister, told DW.
uncertain
Ricupero → continue → DW
"Lula has prestige in foreign policy, while Bolsonaro is completely inexperienced."
Would Brazil pull out of BRICS?
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Brazil → have → BRICS
A victory for Bolsonaro would likely jeopardize Brazil's role in BRICS, the alliance that comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and five other states.
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that → jeopardize → Brazil
Bolsonaro has said that one of his first acts would be to review whether Brazil should stay in the alliance, arguing that BRICS only serves to provoke the US.
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BRICS → say → US
He has also spoken out against China's efforts to reduce the global dominance of the US dollar.
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He → speak → dollar
It's hard to tell how serious such intentions are, considering the importance of economic ties between China and Brazil.
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intentions → tell → China
Javier Milei, Argentina's current president, also engaged in harsh rhetoric against China before he came to power, but quickly adopted a more conciliatory tone once in office to not jeopardize Chinese loans.
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he → engage → loans
"Political relations with China would likely cool, but I wouldn't expect any substantial changes in economic and commercial relations," predicted Ricupero in case of a Bolsonaro victory.
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Ricupero → cool → victory
Paz agreed that Flavio Bolsonaro was unlikely to take an extremely aggressive stance toward China in case of victory.
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Bolsonaro → agree → victory
He explained that, like Milei, Jair Bolsonaro had engaged in some sharp rhetoric against Beijing at the beginning of his term but had quickly softened his tone, given the fact that Brazil's agricultural sector in particular is so dependent on China.
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sector → explain → China
Paz pointed out that the Bolsonaro family enjoyed most support in Brazil's rural regions, which made good money with China.
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which → point → China
"The unknown factor with Flavio Bolsonaro is how much pressure the US would exert so that Brazil distanced itself from China and to what extent he would yield to the pressure," said Paz.
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Paz → exert → pressure
Brazil not likely to become major world player
Paz said that despite possessing enormous natural resources that are important to the global economy, Brazil would likely remain a minor player on the world stage as it had neither the economic strength to provide financial aid to other countries nor the military strength to help resolve conflicts.
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it → become → conflicts
"This severely limits Brazil's ability to act," he said.
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he → limit → ability
But Brazil could continue to be a major protagonist in the Global South, he said, as it is under Lula.
uncertain
it → continue → Lula
"This is particularly evident in the international debate on global governance, in which Brazil raises issues such as new trading conditions, climate policy and development," he said.
asserted
he → raise → conditions
…and 6 more, not listed.
The Aporia
