Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as experts say the United States president believes Washington has more to gain by waiting than by accepting Tehran’s terms at this moment.
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Washington → reject → moment
“I reject their proposal,” Trump told reporters on Saturday, arguing that Iran wants an agreement because it is “losing so badly”.
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it → reject → agreement
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3Pezeshkian → say → flights
“They want to make a deal, and I think that’s fine,” Trump said.
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Trump → want → deal
“I’d like to make a deal too.
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I → like → deal
On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had seen the initial reaction from Trump to its proposal but had yet to receive a response through mediators.
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Tehran → say → mediators
In the latest diplomatic efforts, Qatar has played a role in mediating talks between Iran and the US on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York.
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Qatar → play → York
Iran’s seven-day proposal included Washington lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil sales, releasing an estimated $12bn in frozen Iranian assets and observing a wider regional ceasefire, including in Lebanon and Yemen.
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Washington → include → Lebanon
Iran would then reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin negotiations with Washington on a final agreement.
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Iran → reopen → agreement
The latest proposals are similar to the June memorandum of understanding (MoU) the two countries signed.
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countries → sign → understanding
But the MoU collapsed last month due to differences on the terms of the deal, which resulted in an escalation in attacks, particularly in and around the Strait of Hormuz, which essentially remains under Iranian blockade.
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which → collapse → blockade
According to experts, Trump’s rejection suggested that while both sides continue to publicly leave the door open for diplomacy, they remain far apart over who should make the first concessions.
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who → accord → concessions
“Trump’s calculation looks fairly straightforward.
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calculation → look → ?
He believes the combination of the naval blockade and economic isolation is finally squeezing Iran hard enough that Tehran’s latest proposal is evidence of weakness rather than an offer Washington needs to seize,” Andreas Krieg, associate professor at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.
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Krieg → believe → Jazeera
His public argument that Iran is “losing badly” is important because it suggests he thinks time is improving the US bargaining position, Krieg said.
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Krieg → lose → position
Why does Trump think he can wait?
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he → think → ?
A key part of Trump’s calculation appears to be a belief that the economic pressure on Iran has not yet run its course.
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pressure → appear → course
The Trump administration has escalated economic pressure on Tehran, tightening its naval blockade while imposing sanctions targeting Iranian oil revenues and threatening secondary sanctions against countries doing business with Tehran.
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administration → escalate → Tehran
Last week, the US imposed aviation sanctions on Iran, disrupting flights.
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US → impose → flights
This came weeks after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an economic pressure campaign against Iran, promising to target Tehran’s financial interests across the world.
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Bessent → come → world
Richard Weitz, a senior nonresident associate fellow at the NATO Defence College, told Al Jazeera that the White House may believe it can “wait a bit and get better terms”.
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it → tell → terms
There is also concern in Washington about Iran’s proposed sequencing, he said.
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he → be → sequencing
Therefore, Weitz said Washington may be calculating that “economic pressure over time will induce the Iranian government to make more concessions”.
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pressure → say → concessions
“This is what occurred arguably a decade ago, leading to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal as the Iranian government decided it [the US] needed to end the economic sanctions in return for making concessions on its nuclear programme,” he added.
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he → occur → programme
It is, therefore, possible that “we could see the same kind of trade-off in the coming months”.
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we → see → months
Iran could make Trump ‘pay’
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Trump → make → ?
However, waiting for a deal also carries considerable political risk for the US president, experts said, because his Republican Party could lose November’s midterm elections.
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Party → wait → elections
A late August Reuters/Ipsos poll suggested 63 percent of Americans opposed the US-Israel war on Iran while 31 percent supported it.
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percent → suggest → it
Rising fuel and transportation costs could also feed into broader cost-of-living concerns before the elections.
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costs → rise → elections
The problem for Trump is that time does not only increase pressure on Iran, Krieg said.
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Krieg → increase → Iran
“The gamble is that time cuts both ways,” he noted.
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he → cut → ways
With the midterms approaching, Trump does not want to appear to lift the blockade, waive oil sanctions and release Iranian assets simply to regain access to a waterway that Iran itself disrupted, Krieg said.
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Krieg → approach → that
“But every additional week also means elevated energy prices, continued military exposure and mounting pressure on Gulf partners.
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week → mean → partners
The essential closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted oil and gas flows from the Gulf nations, which depend on energy exports to finance their budgets.
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which → disrupt → budgets
Mohamad Elmasry, a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, told Al Jazeera that Iran’s proposal could be viewed as “kind of throwing a bone to Trump” by offering a potential route towards lower oil and gas prices before the vote.
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proposal → tell → vote
However, Iran may decide “to make Trump pay for declining the proposal and the increased economic pressure the country is under”, he told Al Jazeera.
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he → decide → Jazeera
“They may decide that this is the time to escalate … just as the midterms are approaching.”
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midterms → decide → ?
The Republican Party is not doing well in the polls, and a number of its candidates are “distancing themselves” from Trump, he noted.
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he → do → Trump
Polls indicated that Republicans could lose their slim majorities in the US Congress.
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Republicans → indicate → Congress
It’s not just the Iranians under severe economic pressure because of the US naval blockade and ongoing sanctions, “it’s also the Trump administration,” Elmasry said.
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Elmasry → ’ → blockade
…and 24 more, not listed.
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