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Talarico holds 5-point lead over Paxton in Texas Senate race, poll shows

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Knox, B. (2026, September 27). Talarico holds 5-point lead over Paxton in Texas Senate race, poll shows. Washington Examiner. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4744387/talarico-paxton-texas-senate-race-poll/

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Washington Examiner · collected 2026-09-27 · by Brady Knox

Quick Summary

A new poll shows Democratic candidate James Talarico leading Republican incumbent Ken Paxton by 5 points in the Texas Senate race, with 49% support compared to Paxton’s 44%, among likely voters surveyed from September 19 to 22. The survey, conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6%, highlights Talarico's strong lead across various demographic groups and notes that Republicans have started raising significant funds to support Paxton, including $120 million pledged by the Texas PAC linked to Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
Written by AI on 2026-10-02, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton, the incumbent Texas Attorney General, by 5 points in a new poll conducted from September 19 to 22. The survey of 1,007 likely voters showed Talarico at 49%, Paxton at 44%, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3% and 3% undecided. Talarico particularly leads among independents by 32 points and across various demographic groups except for white and over-55 voters. Despite Republican concerns, the party has begun raising significant funds to support Paxton's campaign, with Texas PAC pledging $120 million and potentially another $80 million.

Written for “Texas Senate Race Poll Results” on 2026-11-04, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Texas Senate Race Poll Results
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 7% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
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Hedges 1 of 42 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles describe different polls conducted at different times with slightly varying results, not a single specific incident.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 3 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss similar topics but refer to different points in time and contexts.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
14
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
7%
1 of 14 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
69/100
Washington Examiner's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-27 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Washington Examiner · 4074 article(s) · 8 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 8 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Brady Knox
89 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 89 articles by Brady Knox →

Topics

Democrat Republican Republicans Senate Texas

Subjects

Texas GPE · 7× Democrat NORP · 5× Paxton PERSON · 5× Talarico PERSON · 5× Republicans NORP · 3× Senate ORG · 3× Republican NORP · 2× James Talarico PERSON · 1× Ken Paxton PERSON · 1× Texas Public Opinion Research ORG · 1×

Narrative

Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 4 points in the gubernatorial race, Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson by 3 points in the attorney general’s race, and Republican Bo French leads Democrat Jon Rosenthal by 1 point in the Texas railroad commissioner race.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-27
🔮 Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 4 points in the gubernatorial race, Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson by 3 points in the attorney general’s race, and Republican Bo French leads Democrat Jon Rosenthal by 1 point in the Texas railroad commissioner race.
2026-09-27 · Washington Examiner
Talarico holds 5-point lead over Paxton in Texas Senate race, poll shows · assertive framing

Claims (14 extracted, 1 hedged)

Democrat James Talarico leads Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by 5 points in a new Texas Senate race poll. asserted
Talarico → lead → poll
The poll from Texas Public Opinion Research, surveying 1,007 likely Texas voters from Sept. 19 to 22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6%, had Talarico at 49%, Paxton at 44%, Libertarian Ted Brown at 3%, and 3% undecided. asserted
poll → survey → %
Talarico also boasted a 32-point lead among independents. asserted
Talarico → boast → independents
He led with black, Latino, under-55, college-educated, and male and female voters, while Paxton led only with 55 and over and white voters. asserted
Paxton → lead → voters
Notably, the race was the only race surveyed where Republicans were behind their Democratic counterparts. asserted
Republicans → survey → counterparts
Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 4 points in the gubernatorial race, Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson by 3 points in the attorney general’s race, and Republican Bo French leads Democrat Jon Rosenthal by 1 point in the Texas railroad commissioner race. asserted
French → lead → race
As polling has spurred worry from Republicans, the party has begun raising significant funds to boost Paxton’s chances. asserted
party → spur → chances
Texas PAC, which has links to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), has pledged $120 million and could send as much as another $80 million. uncertain
which → have → million
Democrats, who have long dreamed of returning to a statewide office in Texas, a feat they haven’t accomplished since 1993, have likewise poured funds into the race. asserted
they → dream → race
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) Senate Majority PAC launched the Texas-focused PAC Texas Forever last week to further assist Talarico. asserted
PAC → launch → Talarico
Talarico was doing laps around Paxton in funding before any outside intervention. asserted
Talarico → do → intervention
His campaign has raised $72 million since the beginning of 2025, compared to Paxton’s $16.8 million. asserted
campaign → raise → Paxton
With 37 days to go until the midterm elections, Republicans still have substantial vulnerabilities to exploit in Talarico, such as his heterodox religious views and left-wing social views, mostly expressed in previous years, which have been a favorite target of GOP attacks. asserted
which → go → attacks
President Donald Trump has adopted the moniker “Talafreako” to describe the Texas Democrat. asserted
Trump → adopt → Democrat
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