Weeks before Election Day, Democratic engagement and positive ratings give Democrat James Talarico a razor-thin edge over Republican Ken Paxton in what is, so far, shaping up to be a photo finish for the Lone Star State’s U.S. Senate seat.
asserted
what → give → seat
This analysis, released Thursday, is among Texas likely voters, unless otherwise noted.
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analysis → release → voters
Talarico enjoys a net positive personal rating of 8 points (52% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable), while Paxton’s is underwater by 18 points (40% vs. 58%).
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Paxton → enjoy → %
Republicans are six times more likely to view Paxton unfavorably (32%) than Democrats do Talarico (5%).
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Democrats → view → Talarico
The GOP also has an enthusiasm gap.
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GOP → have → gap
More MAGA than non-MAGA Republicans are extremely interested in the midterms (64% vs. 50%) and certain they will vote (76% vs. 65%).
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they → vote → %
By contrast, two-thirds of DSA and non-DSA Democrats are extremely interested, and nearly three-quarters of both groups are certain they will vote.
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they → vote → groups
Overall, Texas likely voters split on control of the Senate: 49% prefer a Democratic Senate while 50% favor a Republican upper chamber.
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% → split → chamber
Eight percent of self-identified Republicans prefer the Democrats in power versus 1% of Democrats crossing over to pick the GOP.
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percent → identify → GOP
All this gives Talarico a slim 2-point edge over Paxton (51-49%) in the first Fox News Poll among Texas likely voters (so no comparisons are available).
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comparisons → give → voters
Among the larger sample of registered voters, Talarico’s advantage widens to 7 points (just outside the margin of error).
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advantage → register → error
That’s up from a 3-point edge in July.
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That → ’ → July
GOP ambivalence is further reflected in Senate preferences because non-MAGA Republicans are more than five times more likely to back Talarico than their MAGA counterparts (22% to 4%).
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Republicans → reflect → counterparts
The crossover echoes lingering divisions from the competitive GOP primary and runoff: 20% of likely voters who backed Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the March primary back Talarico.
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who → echo → Talarico
Fully 100% of DSA Democrats and 98% of non-DSA Democrats back Talarico, and slightly more of his backers are certain of their support (89%) than Paxton backers (85%).
In addition, Talarico also gets strong backing from Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%) and voters under age 35 (62%).
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Talarico → back → age
Both candidates face ideological concerns.
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candidates → face → concerns
Roughly equal numbers are concerned Talarico is too liberal on the issues (53% concerned) and Paxton is too close to President Trump (51%).
In 2024, President Donald Trump won Texas by nearly 14 percentage points.
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Trump → win → points
Today, his job rating is underwater by 11 points: 44% approve vs. 55% disapprove.
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% → approve → disapprove
Fifteen percent of those disapproving still back Paxton compared to 9% of Trump approvers backing Talarico.
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percent → disapprove → Talarico
Economic hardships continue to dominate the narrative.
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hardships → continue → narrative
Seven in 10 Texans say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote, and this is another problem for the Republicans because twice as many voters say they are falling behind financially (35%) as getting ahead (16%).
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they → say → %
Those falling behind back Talarico by 32 points, while those getting ahead favor Paxton by 48 points.
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those → fall → points
Those holding steady (48%), the largest group, narrowly back Paxton by 3 points.
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Those → hold → points
Nearly half say Trump (48%) and immigration (47%) will be extremely important to their vote, while one-third say the same about artificial intelligence technology (34%).
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third → say → technology
Talarico holds wide leads among those saying the cost of living (Talarico +19), artificial intelligence (+18) and Trump (+6) will be extremely important to their Senate vote, while immigration-focused voters back Paxton (+20).
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voters → hold → Paxton
In the governor’s race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott’s positive job ratings give him an edge over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa.
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ratings → give → Hinojosa
The three-time incumbent has a 52%-47% advantage over the Texas state House representative.
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incumbent → have → representative
Over half, 52%, approve of the job Abbott is doing as governor, and that same share backs him in the race.
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share → approve → race
Another 47% disapprove, the same number who back Hinojosa.
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who → disapprove → Hinojosa
Abbott fares better than Paxton because he has slightly higher support among men, Republicans and moderates.
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he → fare → men
Women are more evenly divided in the governor’s race.
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Women → divide → race
Abbott also has a modest crossover advantage: 10% of Talarico supporters back Abbott for governor while just 3% of Paxton supporters do the same for Hinojosa.
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% → have → Hinojosa
"Democrats in Texas will walk across broken glass to vote against Trump, so the question is whether the average Republican will vote in an election without Trump and where the Senate race features a controversial GOP candidate," said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News Polls with Democrat Chris Anderson.
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who → walk → Anderson
"Ironically, Paxton may owe his political life to Abbott, who is doing most of the get-out-the-vote work for the Republicans.
uncertain
who → owe → Republicans
Conducted September 24-28, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,203 Texas registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file.
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Poll → conduct → file
Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (127) and cellphones (789) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (287).
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Respondents → speak → message
Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points, and for the subsample of 881 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points.
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it → base → voters
In addition to sampling errors, question wording and order can influence results.
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wording → influence → results
Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data.
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Sources → develop → Survey
Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.
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demographics → apply → population
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
