- Published
If you were getting the impression that the saga over Manchester City's 115 charges was almost over, think again.
asserted
saga → publish → charges
Two years and 10 days since the hearing began, and 1,329 days after City were charged, we now know a verdict has been reached, with the club guilty of the majority of financial rule breaches.
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club → begin → breaches
That is not because the Premier League or Manchester City have told us - it is thanks to the Athletic finding out and breaking the story.
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Athletic → tell → story
, external
BBC Sport was later told the verdict was sent during the week to club executives, who had to sign a non-disclosure agreement to open the file.
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who → tell → file
A process can appear to be completely watertight, as this one certainly had been, but when the circle of trust is expanded, the chance of information getting out increases.
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information → appear → trust
Despite this, public silence from the Premier League continues.
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silence → continue → League
City did not address whether they had been found guilty in a statement making it clear - with an appeal expected - that the "process remains ongoing" from their point of view.
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process → address → view
It all points to the suggestion that the long-awaited decision of the independent panel was not a case of this process nearing an end, but perhaps instead reaching the end of the beginning.
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process → point → beginning
It appears the chaos and uncertainty is only going to increase now.
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chaos → appear → ?
City fans, and the rest of football, are left to guess what the punishment might be.
uncertain
punishment → leave → football
And when this all might reach a definitive conclusion.
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this → reach → conclusion
The charges are so serious that some form of points deduction now appears inevitable, subject to the appeal by City, who have always insisted they have done nothing wrong.
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they → appear → nothing
When and how any punishment is applied will be crucial not just for City, but the Premier League as a whole.
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applied → apply → whole
And that's before we get to the prospect of clubs suing City for compensation.
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clubs → get → compensation
Enzo Maresca's side go to Liverpool on 11 October when the Premier League resumes after the international break.
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League → go → break
They could go six points clear at the top.
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They → go → top
But is that now rendered meaningless?
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that → render → ?
Let's look at possible scenarios - none of which are particularly appealing.
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none → let → which
Scenario one: Nothing is announced this season on punishments
Deciding the punishment should be quicker than ascertaining guilt, but nothing is certain in this case.
As the charges have been denied, it will have to go to a sanction hearing convened by the independent panel.
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it → announce → panel
BBC Sport has been told this hearing could still be months away, and the result may not be published until the appeal is completed.
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appeal → tell → ?
This differs from Chelsea's case earlier this year, as the Stamford Bridge club self-reported and admitted guilt.
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club → differ → guilt
That allowed them to negotiate with the Premier League and reach a sanctioning agreement.
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them → allow → agreement
It is possible that City could decide to hold their hands up and try to agree a deal - which would be better for the league - though that seems unlikely given the club's consistently strong denials over many years.
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that → decide → years
The panel will have to comb through the hundreds of pages of evidence and determine the punishment.
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panel → have → punishment
Remember, Everton were docked six points, reduced from 10 on appeal, and then two points in separate cases for breaches of profit and sustainability rules (PSR).
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Everton → remember → rules
Nottingham Forest were deducted four points.
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Forest → deduct → points
These were considered to be minor breaches, while City faced seven separate charges on PSR breaches in the Premier League alone, as well as a further five related to Uefa competitions.
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City → consider → competitions
This aspect alone suggests a large points penalty.
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aspect → suggest → penalty
That is before you get into the inflated sponsorship revenue allegedly channelled through the companies' accounts as a means of meeting financial fair play rules, payments to players and managers, and a failure to comply with investigations.
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you → get → investigations
Take all this into account, and it places an asterisk against the Premier League between 2009 and 2018.
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it → take → 2009
While Chelsea admitted effectively cheating, City have been found guilty.
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City → admit → ?
They got around the financial rules to put them in a position to be able to sign more expensive players than their finances should have permitted.
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finances → get → players
And if this season passes with no decision on the sanction while it is known City were guilty of the majority of counts, what does that mean for the integrity of the competition?
Could a penalty be backdated to this season when finally awarded?
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penalty → pass → season
So what if Manchester City win the league?
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City → win → league
What if they finish in that position, are relegated, but would have stayed up had City's punishment come this season?
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punishment → finish → position
There's a strong argument that a sanctioning agreement is the cleanest way out of this.
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agreement → be → this
But that may not be palatable to the league as they would have to negotiate with City, who would presumably want a lesser punishment.
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who → have → punishment
Scenario two: Man City punishment is levied this season but they appeal
The usual process when any points penalty is handed down is that it is applied immediately, subject to appeal.
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it → levy → appeal
Alternatively, if City's membership of the Premier League was revoked, it is unclear how that might be applied mid-season.
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that → revoke → League
It could also be that the punishment is a huge fine, although that would seem unlikely given points deductions to other clubs.
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that → seem → clubs
…and 33 more, not listed.
The Aporia
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