US sanctions are pushing Iran's weakened aviation sector toward deeper isolation, making international travel less predictable and raising new risks for trade and cargo.
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travel → push → trade
Earlier in September as part of "operation economic outcast," the US Treasury Department targeted Iran's aviation sector, including Iranian airlines and companies providing ground handling, ticketing or airport support, which face secondary sanctions and potentially lose access to the US financial system.
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which → target → system
The United States cannot directly order foreign airports to reject Iranian aircraft.
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States → order → aircraft
But the threat of secondary sanctions can make servicing them too risky for airports, fuel suppliers and aviation companies.
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servicing → make → airports
Washington argues that Iranian airlines have served not only civilian passengers but also military and security networks.
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airlines → argue → passengers
For example, Mahan Air has been accused of supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and helping transport personnel and equipment.
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Air → accuse → personnel
The issue has also been debated inside Iran.
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issue → debate → Iran
Former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in a 2021 interview that Qassem Soleimani had used civilian aircraft to move forces and equipment to Syria.
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Soleimani → say → Syria
For Washington, such links help justify targeting aviation networks.
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links → help → networks
For ordinary travelers, however, the immediate result is canceled flights and fewer ways to leave or return to the country.
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result → cancel → country
Major Middle East routes canceled
Iranian flights to Baghdad and Muscat have been suspended or canceled, while Azerbaijan and Georgia also stopped accepting flights operated by Iranian carriers.
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Azerbaijan → cancel → carriers
An Iranian travel agency told DW anonymously for safety reasons that routes to Oman, Iraq, Azerbaijan and Georgia have been seriously disrupted.
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routes → tell → Oman
On September 24, Turkmenistan refused permission for an Iranian aircraft flying from Tehran to Dushanbe to cross its airspace, forcing the plane to return to Iran.
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aircraft → refuse → Iran
Turkey, Armenia and China have not announced blanket restrictions, the agency said, but passengers were increasingly reluctant to buy tickets because even a confirmed booking did not guarantee departure.
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booking → announce → departure
A passenger told DW that agencies would still sell him a ticket but could not guarantee the flight would actually operate.
uncertain
flight → tell → ticket
As part of the sanctions package, the US also suspended the "J-1" general license, which had allowed certain non-Iranian aircraft to make temporary stops in Iran under specific conditions, including that control of the aircraft remained with the foreign operator and that the stay did not exceed permitted limits.
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stay → suspend → limits
Many commercial aircraft contain US-made parts or technology, meaning operations involving Iran can fall under US sanctions rules.
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operations → contain → rules
The suspension of J-1 has increased the legal and financial risks for airlines, airports, fuel suppliers, ground-handling companies and other service providers, who now must calculate the risk of secondary sanctions.
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who → increase → sanctions
More travelers use land crossings
With air connections increasingly uncertain, more passengers are turning to land crossings.
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passengers → use → crossings
One traveler whose flight was canceled told DW that he traveled overland from Iran to Turkey before continuing to Istanbul by air.
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he → cancel → air
A lot of people were trying to leave because they were worried the routes might close," he told DW anonymously.
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he → try → DW
For families, older people, students and patients, however, crossing a land border and continuing by road and air can be far more difficult than taking a direct flight.
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crossing → cross → flight
Costs also rise quickly as passengers add road transport, accommodation and additional flights to journeys that previously required a single ticket.
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that → rise → ticket
Also affected is air freight, which is important for urgent or sensitive goods, including some medicines, medical equipment, industrial parts and laboratory samples.
That has become more significant as Iran simultaneously faces severe restrictions on maritime trade.
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Iran → affect → trade
Iran's shaky aviation industry
Iranian aviation already faced structural problems before the latest sanctions.
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aviation → face → sanctions
Transport Minister Farzaneh Sadegh previously acknowledged that some flights operate without radar guidance, leaving pilots with greater responsibility for navigation.
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flights → acknowledge → navigation
An ageing fleet, difficulties obtaining spare parts, years of sanctions and fewer operational aircraft have all put pressure on airlines.
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fleet → age → airlines
When passengers must also consider destination airports refusing services, lengthy delays or flights being canceled without warning, buying a ticket becomes a calculation of risk.
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buying → consider → risk
Alireza Salavati, political economy analyst and managing director of the London-based Middle East Analytica, said that the loss of air links will be unlikely to cause a large, immediate hit to Iran's GDP.
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loss → manage → GDP
Officials said in July that roughly 150 aircraft were in the operational pool, with only about half of them operational at any given time," Salavati told DW.
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Salavati → say → DW
For a heavily sanctioned economy, flights still matter for business, the diaspora, students, specialist workers and medical treatment abroad.
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flights → sanction → students
For patients, a once-direct journey can become a detour through a third country, with extra travel, accommodation and sometimes visa costs.
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journey → become → travel
Time can matter as much as money," Salavati added.
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Salavati → matter → money
Iran isolated by air and sea
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Iran → isolate → air
Foreign airlines had already sharply reduced services to Iran before the latest measures.
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airlines → reduce → measures
Many passengers relied on Iranian carriers to reach regional hubs such as Istanbul, Muscat, Baghdad or Yerevan, then continued with foreign airlines.
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passengers → rely → airlines
If those first connections disappear, Iran's international aviation network could increasingly be reduced to a handful of routes that remain politically and commercially viable.
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that → disappear → routes
The development also comes as Iran faces restrictions at sea.
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Iran → come → sea
Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, higher insurance and freight costs and pressure on southern ports had already made imports and exports more difficult.
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imports → make → ports
If maritime trade becomes more expensive while air links also contract, Iran will become increasingly dependent on land borders and indirect routes through neighboring states.
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Iran → become → states
The Aporia
