To understand the economic devastation Iran is now experiencing, look no further than the trucks choking its borders.
asserted
Iran → understand → borders
Thousands of them have lined up at land crossings into neighboring Turkey and Afghanistan, with many drivers sitting idle for weeks.
asserted
drivers → line → weeks
They are there because overland routes are the only way that Iran can circumvent the punishing air and naval blockade imposed by the United States — but the regime can’t escape the cumbersome customs and security inspections that cause endless bottlenecks at the border.
asserted
that → circumvent → border
Yet to listen to Iran’s leaders, you’d think they held all the cards.
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they → listen → cards
At the UN General Assembly in New York this week, Tehran named its price for a deal: Lift the blockade, release frozen assets and end the “economic war.”
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Tehran → name → war
In return, it pledges to halt its attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway it has no right to close.
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it → pledge → right
President Donald Trump should impolitely decline: Time is on America’s side.
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Time → decline → side
“Economic Fury,” the operation launched by the Treasury Department as a complement to the US military’s “Epic Fury,” is biting hard.
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Fury → launch → Fury
The reimposition of the blockade in July has resulted in Iran’s oil loadings collapsing by 85% — even as US forces supported the transit of more than 1 billion barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, assisting more than 2,000 commercial-vessel transits.
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forces → result → transits
Iran’s domestic supply has been suffocated by the lack of imports, with reportedly only two months of fuel remaining.
uncertain
months → suffocate → fuel
More broadly, Iran’s GDP dropped by more than 10% in a matter of weeks — and over the last year the national currency, the rial, has lost half of its value.
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currency → drop → value
But getting goods in and out is now much slower, much costlier, and woefully inefficient.
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getting → get → goods
Transporting a container overland costs about four times as much as by sea.
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Transporting → transport → sea
Worse for the regime, the truckers, railways and shippers who carry these loads demand payment in precious hard currency — preferably dollars — not in Iran’s beleaguered rial.
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who → carry → rial
At most, 500 trucks can cross from Turkey daily because of the bureaucratic hurdles involved; you’d need 20,000 to duplicate Iran’s pre-war volume of seaborne traffic.
The regime is ill-prepared for what it now faces.
For 47 years, it plowed its oil revenues into building its nuclear program and arming its terrorist proxies, at the expense of vital infrastructure.
Rather than engaging in yet more fruitless negotiations, the United States should now focus on a land blockade alongside its naval and air blockades.
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States → cross → blockades
Doing so would further seal Iran from the international trade the regime depends on for its survival.
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regime → do → survival
No troops are required to set up a land blockade.
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troops → require → blockade
Treasury has already declared Iran’s aviation, shipping and gold sectors off-limits to international actors.
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sectors → declare → actors
Now it should add transportation and logistics, putting every trucking firm, freight forwarder and dry port handling Iranian cargo at risk of losing access to the dollar.
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it → add → dollar
A 2010 law already mandates sanctions on anyone who sells gasoline to Iran or helps deliver it.
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who → mandate → it
Enforce it against every refiner, trader and carrier moving fuel to Iran’s transportation, and its trucks will be stuck.
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trucks → enforce → transportation
Washington can also lean on Iran’s neighbors to deny banking services.
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Washington → lean → services
Because of US pressure, Turkey revoked Bank Mellat’s license, while the UAE has banned Bank Melli.
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UAE → revoke → Melli
Iraq can the effort to pressure Iran by settling the billions it owes for gas and electricity imports in medicines and food only, not in cash.
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it → pressure → cash
All this would have a profound impact on what remains of Iran’s armed forces, which last year gobbled up 51% of the nation’s oil revenue.
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which → have → revenue
And where sanctions can’t reach, cyber operations can.
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operations → reach → ?
Last year, suspected Israeli hackers destroyed data at Bank Sepah, the Iranian military’s own bank, and wiped out $90 million at Iran’s largest crypto exchange.
US and Israeli cyber forces should target the payment mechanisms used by the regime to pay its security forces.
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forces → suspect → forces
Given all these factors, a US deal now would hand Iran’s rulers the very lifeline that a combined air, land and sea blockade would deny.
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blockade → give → that
It wouldn’t change the regime’s behavior, as recent experience demonstrates: Eight days after signing a memorandum of understanding with the United States in June, Iran was attacking ships again.
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Iran → change → ships
Instead, Trump’s administration should help foster a new popular uprising inside Iran.
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administration → help → Iran
The regime crushed the last one with violence — much as it has done during more than 15 years of periodic revolts — at a cost of 43,000 lives.
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it → crush → lives
Washington should prepare accordingly, by securing internet access, providing strike funds for workers and merchants, and targeting every commander who orders his men to fire on demonstrators.
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who → prepare → demonstrators
The next phase belongs to the Iranians themselves.
asserted
phase → belong → Iranians
America’s job is to make sure the regime can’t pay, fuel or move the forces it will send against the rising tide of discontent.
asserted
it → make → discontent
The Aporia
