The Aporia · Open Thread 453

Open Thread 453

Read the original at Astral Codex Ten ↗

Cite

APA MLA Chicago

Alexander, S. (2026, September 28). Open Thread 453. Astral Codex Ten. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-453

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Quick Summary

This article is an open thread post inviting discussion and updates on various topics such as election races, college EA meetups, AI grants, and recent comments about AI generalization. It mentions a California House race where the author may reconsider their previous support for the incumbent based on communication from the challenger. The post also highlights new meetup groups at Oxford, University College Dublin, and the University of the Philippines, and announces a $10 million grant distribution for work on transformative AI by middle powers outside of the US and China.

Written by AI on 2026-09-28, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Scott Alexander posted an open thread on his blog Astral Codex Ten, discussing various topics including a correction he might make for the upcoming November election in California's 12th District House race. In May, he supported the incumbent candidate due to concerns about the challenger, Jamie Joyce, being eccentric and unlikely to win. However, after receiving a message from Joyce asking him to reconsider his stance, Alexander recommended that voters interested in the district check out her response. Additionally, Alexander mentioned updates on Effective Altruism (EA) college meetups at Oxford, University College Dublin, and the University of the Philippines. Lastly, he noted that Astralis Foundation and Macroscopic Ventures plan to distribute up to $10 million in grants for work on "middle powers and transformative AI," focusing on what countries beyond the US and China can do to navigate the AI transition.

Written for “Open Thread Discussion” on 2026-10-30, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 9% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.

Open Thread Different event

Reason

Outlet record 67/100

“The articles are different open threads posted on separate dates.”

Open Thread Different event

Reason

Outlet record 67/100

“The articles are open threads posted on different dates and do not describe a single specific incident.”

How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted

sentences that state something as happening or true

Uncertain

1 of 11 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")

Leaning

not political

takes no side on a contested political question

Publisher signals

not measured

these signals count newsroom corrections; Commentary has none to count

Outlets on this story

Politics

Same framing elsewhere

articles that frame the event the way this one does

Analyzed 2026-09-28 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability

Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Astral Codex Ten · 62 article(s) · 3 correction(s) detected

No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Scott Alexander

49 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction

🔮 California State Propositions Proposition 1: Authorizes $11.25 billion in bonds to build affordable housing Supporters claim it will build (or renovate) 40,000 homes; I asked an AI superforecaster1 to predict the true number, and it guessed that 22,000 would actually get built.

2026-10-28 · assertive framing · My California Ballot, 2026

🔮 I may have more of these in the upcoming week.

2026-10-19 · assertive framing · Open Thread 456

🔮 [This is one of the finalists in the 2026 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done.

2026-10-17 · assertive framing · Your Book Review: Storm Of Steel

🔮 AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI have long mentioned the possibility that their products could be existentially dangerous, but this has recently crescendoed into even more dire warnings, including suggestions that we have to pace the frontier, ie coordinate to slow AI progress.

2026-10-15 · assertive framing · AI Safety Is Not A Corporate Plot

🔮 [This is one of the finalists in the 2026 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done.

2026-10-10 · assertive framing · Your Book Review: We Present Television

🔮 When I objected that maybe we should wait for you to accept before figuring out details, they all said great, that’s absolutely right, they would contact you right away.

2026-10-06 · assertive framing · An Open Letter To Steven Pinker On AI

🔮 I’m pretty busy and will try to make up for it after that changes.

2026-10-05 · assertive framing · Open Thread 454

🔮 My wife and I could make healthy embryos, but none of the transfers were sticking.

2026-10-02 · assertive framing · Our AI Midwife

🔮 The challenger in that race, Jamie Joyce, contacted me and asked me to change my mind (both candidates will be facing off again in the general election).

2026-09-28 · assertive framing · Open Thread 453

🔮 [This is one of the finalists in the 2026 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done.

2026-09-25 · assertive framing · Your Book Review: Lee Kuan Yew's Memoirs

Also by Scott Alexander

My California Ballot, 2026

2026-10-28 · Astral Codex Ten

Open Thread 456

2026-10-19 · Astral Codex Ten

Your Book Review: Storm Of Steel

2026-10-16 · Astral Codex Ten

AI Safety Is Not A Corporate Plot

2026-10-15 · Astral Codex Ten

Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

All 49 articles by Scott Alexander →

Topics

12th District House ACX California Discord Oxford

Subjects

12th District House ORG · 1× ACX ORG · 1× Astralis Foundation ORG · 1× California GPE · 1× Discord ORG · 1× Jamie Joyce PERSON · 1× Macroscopic Ventures ORG · 1× Oxford GPE · 1× University College Dublin ORG · 1× the University of the Philippines ORG · 1×

Narrative

3: Astralis Foundation and Macroscopic Ventures, which I think are parts of our conspiracy although I can’t keep track any more, announce that they will be distributing up to $10 million in grants for work on “middle powers and transformative AI”, ie “research, training, public writing and new organizations focused on what countries beyond the US and China can do to help navigate” the AI transition.

framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-28

🔮 The challenger in that race, Jamie Joyce, contacted me and asked me to change my mind (both candidates will be facing off again in the general election).

2026-09-28 · Astral Codex Ten

Open Thread 453 · assertive framing

Claims (11 extracted, 1 hedged)

Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. asserted

you → post → questions

ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord, and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. asserted

ACX → have → world

Most content is free, some is subscriber only; you can subscribe here. asserted

you → subscribe → ?

1: In my California primary ballot recommendations post this spring, I said I was voting for the boring incumbent for 12th District House because the challenger seemed eccentric and had no chance. asserted

challenger → say → chance

The challenger in that race, Jamie Joyce, contacted me and asked me to change my mind (both candidates will be facing off again in the general election). asserted

candidates → contact → election

I don’t want to relitigate what I said in May, but I may reconsider if I make a post on the November election. uncertain

I → want → election

In the meantime, she asked me to link her response, which I recommend to any interested 12th District voters. asserted

I → ask → voters

2: More college EA meetup group updates: Oxford, University College Dublin, and the University of the Philippines now have meetups planned. asserted

meetups → plan → Philippines

countries → think → transition

You can read more and apply here. 4: Comments of the week, all from the Mysteries of AI Generalization post: Eliezer Yudkowsky on why the latest failures of generalization are bad news. Ezra Newman on relevant distinctions between pretraining/midtraining/RLVR Elias Schmied links Evan Hubinger on why Hacker Opus didn’t show emergent misalignment. asserted

Opus → read → misalignment

Stuart Armstrong on how emergent misalignment happens. asserted

misalignment → happen → ?