The Aporia · Nithya Raman takes double-digit lead over Karen Bass in new LA mayor’s race prediction

Nithya Raman takes double-digit lead over Karen Bass in new LA mayor’s race prediction

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APA MLA Chicago

Peña, M. (2026, September 28). Nithya Raman takes double-digit lead over Karen Bass in new LA mayor’s race prediction. New York Post. https://nypost.com/2026/09/28/us-news/nithya-raman-takes-lead-over-karen-bass-in-new-la-mayors-race-odds/

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Quick Summary

Polymarket traders currently predict Nithya Raman has a 58% chance and Karen Bass a 42% chance of winning the Los Angeles mayoral race, reflecting a significant shift since a September UC Berkeley Institute poll that showed Raman with 39% support and Bass with 28%. The undecided voters make up 33%, leaving room for movement before November's runoff election. Raman's strong backing from younger voters and progressive organizations contrasts with Bass facing an unfavorable rating of about 63% due to her handling of city issues like homelessness and housing affordability.

Written by AI on 2026-09-28, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

In the race for Los Angeles mayor, Nithya Raman has taken a double-digit lead over Karen Bass, according to predictions based on trader bets at Polymarket. As of Monday morning, traders gave Raman about a 58% chance of winning compared with roughly 42% for Bass. This shift follows a September poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and the Los Angeles Times that showed Raman with 39% support among likely voters, while Bass had 28%, with another 33% undecided. Raman, who represents the hillsides and parts of the San Fernando Valley on the LA City Council, finished second in the June primary election, securing her place in the runoff. She has gained strong backing from younger voters and progressive organizations like the Los Angeles chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America.

Written for “LA Mayor Race Prediction” on 2026-11-01, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans right and hedges 8% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.

Wokest LA mayoral hopeful Nithya Raman opens up huge lead over Karen Bass in latest poll, with just weeks until election day Different event

Daily Mail

Hedges 5 of 31 claims Outlet record 68/100

“The articles describe different events: one is about a UC Berkeley and Los Angeles Times poll from mid-September, while the other discusses predictions on Polymarket.”

New LA fundraising totals give surprising look at who’s on top in heated mayoral race Different event

New York Post

Hedges 2 of 12 claims Outlet record 66/100

“The articles discuss different aspects of the mayoral race and do not describe the same specific incident or outcome.”

Bass splits from progressive rival on Israel in LA mayoral race Different event

Washington Examiner

⚖️ Leans left further left than this Hedges 1 of 30 claims Outlet record 70/100

“The articles describe different aspects of the LA mayoral race and discuss separate events: one covers prediction markets, while the other reports on a policy divergence during a Jewish community forum.”

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted

sentences that state something as happening or true

Uncertain

1 of 13 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")

Leaning

Leans right

of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate

Publisher signals

66/100

New York Post's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.

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Politics

Same framing elsewhere

articles that frame the event the way this one does

Who wrote this

Marina Peña

62 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction

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🔮 Nithya Raman claimed she went into a “fugue state” and did not remember her Los Angeles mayoral debate with Karen Bass.

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Also by Marina Peña

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2026-10-28 · New York Post

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2026-10-18 · New York Post

Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

All 62 articles by Marina Peña →

Claims (13 extracted, 1 hedged)

Polymarket traders gave Raman about a 58% chance of winning the election, compared with roughly 42% for Bass, which is a gap of about 16 percentage points, according to results on the site Monday morning. uncertain

which → give → site

The numbers aren’t traditional polling numbers, they reflect the prices traders are willing to pay on results tied to each candidate winning the election. asserted

candidate → reflect → election

Polymarket allows users to buy and sell contracts based on the outcomes of real-world events. asserted

users → allow → events

The shift comes after a mid-September UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, conducted with the Los Angeles Times, found Raman with 39% support among likely voters, compared with 28% for Bass. asserted

poll → come → Bass

Another 33% remained undecided, leaving a significant portion of the electorate still up for grabs. asserted

% → remain → grabs

The poll surveyed 2,000 likely voters. asserted

poll → survey → voters

Raman, who represents the hillsides and parts of the San Fernando Valley in Los Angeles on the LA City Council, advanced to the runoff after finishing second in the June 2 primary. asserted

who → represent → primary

Bass led the field with about 34% of the vote, while Raman finished with roughly 29%. asserted

Raman → lead → %

Former reality television personality Spencer Pratt, who initially appeared to be in position to advance, ultimately finished third as later ballots were counted. Raman has drawn particularly strong support from younger voters and has secured backing from progressive organizations, including the Los Angeles chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America. asserted

Raman → appear → America

Bass, meanwhile, has faced voter dissatisfaction over several major issues confronting the city, including homelessness, housing affordability and the response to the 2025 wildfires. asserted

Bass → face → wildfires

The September poll found Bass with an unfavorable rating of about 63%, which indicates the difficulties the incumbent is having as she seeks a second term. asserted

she → find → term

One of the major questions heading into November is where voters who supported Pratt in the primary will go. asserted

who → head → primary

The Nov. 3 runoff was triggered because no candidate received more than 50% of the vote in the June primary. asserted

candidate → trigger → primary

Nithya Raman takes double-digit lead over Karen Bass in new LA mayor’s race prediction

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Claims (13 extracted, 1 hedged)